RKLB is my biggest play for a SpaceX IPO.

Let me explain why:

A. Rocket Lab Is Quickly Turning Into A Full Space Company

When thinking about Rocket Lab, most investors immediately think of Electron rocket launches.

While launches are crucial to Rocket Lab’s business, the company is building much more than that.

Rocket Lab generates substantial revenue from space components, spacecraft parts, and satellite technology. Over the years, Rocket Lab has been buying companies that allow it to vertically integrate its space technology stack.

Rocket Lab currently provides:

• Solar panels
• Reaction wheels
• Spacecraft software
• Satellite buses
• Guidance technology
• Defense tech

And that is just the beginning.

Rocket Lab is proving to be a repeatable revenue stream creator.

Wall Street has not fully priced in the possibility of SpaceX being a high-margin, low-cost leader in launch. If SpaceX pushes launch costs even lower, we will see an acceleration of space infrastructure investments.

Rocket companies can be cyclical, low-margin businesses. But hardware providers to a future space economy could be tremendous long-term businesses.

B. Neutron Will Change The Narrative On Rocket Lab

Investors often sleep on just how game-changing Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket could be.

If Neutron is successful, Rocket Lab has the chance to graduate from a small launch company into a meaningful player in medium-lift rockets. That will open the door for Rocket Lab to win national security contracts that were once only reserved for SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.

Think about how perception around Rocket Lab would shift if it began to compete with SpaceX.

Combined with a SpaceX IPO opening the space spigots, Rocket Lab could become the easiest way for institutions to gain public space exposure.

I’m being conservative here.

Emerging out of Yandex’s sale of its Russian business earlier this year, Nebius has pivoted hard into neocloud and appears on track to be another massive success story in AI.

The differences between Nebius’ offering and competitors like CoreWeave are subtle but important. Nebius doesn’t simply rent GPUs to AI trainers. Rather, it offers a full-stack solution that includes:

GPU clusters;

Managed storage; and

Developer tooling needed to deploy AI models.

This lets Nebius charge more per AI “unit” of compute than its rivals (think the difference between renting a house vs renting a house, carpet, fridge, stove, etc.) and allows it to maintain wider moats around its customer relationships. Combined revenue from those two deals is approximately $27 billion, raising Nebius’ total contract backlog to $49 billion.

Risk: Net revenue losses are growing. This growth story requires continued, unabated execution and will need to tap the capital markets for additional liquidity. Given the company’s trajectory and valuation it probably won’t have much trouble doing so, but still.