r/Section10Podcast

Watching the rest of the postseason and seeing the litany of former Sox still playing, I think Xander is the decision that salts me up the most these last few years. It’s old hat at this point, but I think it’s the least defensible considering the cost. Not to mention we’d probably still have Devers if we just gave Xander the reasonable extension he deserved. I don’t think he drops off the way he has in SD if he had stayed. Wasn’t the best that we’ve seen depart, but he was the man and I miss him a lot.

I was a very casual Red Sox fan before 2020. I pretty much only watched playoff games. I’m very much aware of how dominant the 2018 team was and for very obvious reasons every Sox fan longs for those days and that team.

My question is, what happened in 2019? How did they go from such a dominant team in 2018 to not even making the playoffs in 2019? I understand that teams disappoint all the time, but that seems like a very extreme underperformance.

I just get a bit confused when everyone points to the team being completely perfect in 2018 and then the front office completely ruined it. If the team was perfect what happened the following year?

Please don’t read into this as me making any claims about trading Mookie being good or being happy with the direction of this team in the last 8 years or whatever. I’m clearly speaking from a place of ignorance and wish to be informed.

Had a dream last night that I was hanging out with Tyler Milliken at the 99 near Fenway.

For some reason, I had bought him an anime Red Sox book as a fan gift. I have no idea what an “anime Red Sox book” is, but in the dream this was apparently a completely normal piece of merchandise that I had specifically picked out for Tyler.

I gave it to him. He seemed appreciative. It was a great interaction as a fan.

Then we leave the 99 and Tyler just leaves the fucking book sitting in the lobby.

I realize this later and go back to get it, only to discover that a kid has found the book and is now fighting with another kid over who gets to keep it. Their parents get involved, start screaming at each other, and things escalate.

By the time I get back into the lobby, there is a fist fight happening inside the 99 because two children both wanted Tyler Milliken’s abandoned anime Red Sox book.

And the entire time I’m standing there thinking, “This never happens if Tyler just takes his fucking book with him.”

Woke up super annoyed at him.

Tyler, if you’re reading this, please be more responsible with the gifts I give you in my subconscious.

I know how much Jared loves 76° temps for baseball games. And I get it; it's a lovely temperature. Perfect as the game begins, and then it cools off throughout the evening as the Sox dominate. Steve giving us the weather + the challenge for Game 3 being 76° was absolute cinema. Absolutely no way that we can lose that game. Yankees are fucked.

But... as a guy who loves his data and his spreadsheets, I thought, "I wonder if there's any merit to this? Or is 76° all vibes?" It's easy enough to pull the data (thanks, MLB), so I thought I'd check it out.

I pulled the data for just 2026. This season, we had 8 games that were 76° at game start, and we were 5-3. Not bad! That's a .625 win%, or a 101 win pace. I'll take that.

Note: I recall Steve having a different record for the Sox at 76°. I didn't go back to all of the Weather Look Aheads to find which games they said would be at this temp; I just pulled data from the MLB Stats API. Any discrepancies should be blamed on that. Now back to the post.

Except... hang on. We had 4 games at 79°, and were 4-0. 5 games at 80°... 5-0. 5 more games at 83 or 84°... 5-0. And 82°? While not being perfect, we went 8-2 over our 10 games, for a .800 win% (130 win pace).

Ok fine... this is just one season. What about over the life of Section 10 / Name Redacted? I pulled all the games since 2015, compiled the data, and here's what we got:

• At 76°: 49 games, .571 win%. 92-93 win pace. Still solid!
• We played a stupid amount of games (171) at 72°, and we're at a .474 win%
• 92 of those 72° games were at Tropicana. If you split those out: at the Trop, we're .426, everywhere else (79 games), we're .532. Fuck that place.
• The most # of games played by temp: 68° (89 games, .539 %), 73° (83 games, .482 %), and 75° (73 games, .562%)
• The highest win% of qualified temps: 85° (41 games, .732 %), 81° (57 games, .702 %), and 83% (45 games, .667 %)
• The outlier: we apparently LOVE it when it's almost freezing... we've played 3 games in the 30-34° temp range, and won them all.
• The consistent performers: 80° has 4 seasons (2015, 2018, 2025, and 2026) in which they had the best win%, going 18-0 combined in those years. We also had 3 temps that had 3 top win% seasons: 81° ('18, '23, '25, 12-0), 83° ('19, '25, '26, 11-1), and 85° ('17, '18, '21, 13-0)

Overall, 76° is a valid temp. A good temp. A playoff caliber temp, even. But horn-worthy? Eh... 28-21 over 12 seasons is kinda mid. Only 5 seasons above .500, and 4 below .500. Super inconsistent.

81°, on the other hand, is the sweet spot. Warm enough that you don't even need to consider a sweatshirt for the later innings. Cool enough to not be oppressive. And performance-wise? Buddy... 57 games, 40-17 (.701)? 9 seasons above .500, and only 2 below? Talk about your consistent performer.

81 too hot for you? How about 63°, then? 36 games, 23-13, .639 win%. Above .500 8/12 seasons, and below .500 only twice. Might not have the highest SLG, but still more consistent than 76°.

So Jared... perhaps, with the impending lockout, it's time to revisit 76° as "the perfect temp". Let's get a little warmer, and bask in the toastiness of 81° together. Whaddya say?