76°: The Perfect Temp? A Statistical Analysis
I know how much Jared loves 76° temps for baseball games. And I get it; it's a lovely temperature. Perfect as the game begins, and then it cools off throughout the evening as the Sox dominate. Steve giving us the weather + the challenge for Game 3 being 76° was absolute cinema. Absolutely no way that we can lose that game. Yankees are fucked.
But... as a guy who loves his data and his spreadsheets, I thought, "I wonder if there's any merit to this? Or is 76° all vibes?" It's easy enough to pull the data (thanks, MLB), so I thought I'd check it out.
I pulled the data for just 2026. This season, we had 8 games that were 76° at game start, and we were 5-3. Not bad! That's a .625 win%, or a 101 win pace. I'll take that.
Note: I recall Steve having a different record for the Sox at 76°. I didn't go back to all of the Weather Look Aheads to find which games they said would be at this temp; I just pulled data from the MLB Stats API. Any discrepancies should be blamed on that. Now back to the post.
Except... hang on. We had 4 games at 79°, and were 4-0. 5 games at 80°... 5-0. 5 more games at 83 or 84°... 5-0. And 82°? While not being perfect, we went 8-2 over our 10 games, for a .800 win% (130 win pace).
Ok fine... this is just one season. What about over the life of Section 10 / Name Redacted? I pulled all the games since 2015, compiled the data, and here's what we got:
- At 76°: 49 games, .571 win%. 92-93 win pace. Still solid!
- We played a stupid amount of games (171) at 72°, and we're at a .474 win%
- 92 of those 72° games were at Tropicana. If you split those out: at the Trop, we're .426, everywhere else (79 games), we're .532. Fuck that place.
- The most # of games played by temp: 68° (89 games, .539 %), 73° (83 games, .482 %), and 75° (73 games, .562%)
- The highest win% of qualified temps: 85° (41 games, .732 %), 81° (57 games, .702 %), and 83% (45 games, .667 %)
- The outlier: we apparently LOVE it when it's almost freezing... we've played 3 games in the 30-34° temp range, and won them all.
- The consistent performers: 80° has 4 seasons (2015, 2018, 2025, and 2026) in which they had the best win%, going 18-0 combined in those years. We also had 3 temps that had 3 top win% seasons: 81° ('18, '23, '25, 12-0), 83° ('19, '25, '26, 11-1), and 85° ('17, '18, '21, 13-0)
Overall, 76° is a valid temp. A good temp. A playoff caliber temp, even. But horn-worthy? Eh... 28-21 over 12 seasons is kinda mid. Only 5 seasons above .500, and 4 below .500. Super inconsistent.
81°, on the other hand, is the sweet spot. Warm enough that you don't even need to consider a sweatshirt for the later innings. Cool enough to not be oppressive. And performance-wise? Buddy... 57 games, 40-17 (.701)? 9 seasons above .500, and only 2 below? Talk about your consistent performer.
81 too hot for you? How about 63°, then? 36 games, 23-13, .639 win%. Above .500 8/12 seasons, and below .500 only twice. Might not have the highest SLG, but still more consistent than 76°.
So Jared... perhaps, with the impending lockout, it's time to revisit 76° as "the perfect temp". Let's get a little warmer, and bask in the toastiness of 81° together. Whaddya say?