r/TechHardware

I am sorry for everyone impacted by this issue that no vendor seems to be owning up to. This is definitely an embarrassment and how not to treat your customers. I imagine that they love their shill tech journalists complicity in demanding answers.

New old product! AMD keeps launching new old CPUs. It is almost as if they know their time is limited.

Definitely an under-covered aspect of the blackwell to vera rubin jump is that, where Blackwell was a GPU that was for the training era, the vera rubin system is designed explicitly for the Inference + Agentic Era.

All of the comparisons I see that position Asics + AMD/Intel Cpus eating away at Nvidia market share are absolutely fair and true....when compared to just GPUs/Blackwell.

But Jensen is way ahead of that and was going on about this full stack end-to-end approach months and months before I (and the market at large) understood what that meant -- i.e. GPU era over, GPU (training) + CPU (Agentic) + whatever inference focussed hardware you like (inference).

Jensen has vocally been extremely dismissive of Asics on a Podcast, suggesting he expects Vera Rubin and later generations to end up being vastly superior over their lifetime for even inference tasks. This could; as I see it, likely stem from things we will not see the market appreciate/price in until probably late 2027 at the earliest. Namely that the comparison when choosing what to upgrade with (as will be the dominant choice for Capex spend post this buildout say in 2029+) once we're fully energy constrained & no longer supply constrained (ATM vera rubin vs asics is irrelevant- the answer for hyperscalers is 'both'...) will shift towards what makes sense over the replacement lifecycle.

As I see it/understand, this seems to me to be:

Year 1:

Nvidia chip upfront: 1x cost, 1x efficiency.

Asic at say 1.5x speed/efficiency at say 2/3 cost vs Nvidia chip due to in house custom silicon margin benefits (Amazon, Google etc.) ----> Replace in 6yrs for a 100% write down with 0 resale value.

However, thanks to the ongoing software optimisations that Nvidia pushes out:

Year 2: Nvidia catches up to and surpasses asic due to optimisations, ending year 2 at now 2x original efficiency and speed and hence 33% ahead of asic.

Years 3-6: Exponentially widening gap in performance of nvidia chip system, such that by end of year 6 the ~5-10x performance uplift means the nvidia chip is up to 5x faster than the equivalent asic...

End of year 6: Nvidia chip resale value at ~33-50% original cost, recouping most if not all of the present value outlay differential at installation in costs.

Add in what I believe is another overlooked component-- the synergies in efficiency and performance of running nvidia full stack end to end vs a mix and match loosely 3 part system of GPU+CPU+ASIC, meaning I'm not so sure we will even see that 1.5x initial ASIC advantage materialise in practice anyway....

Result if this analysis is correct: Hyperscaler orders show strength for Vera Rubin and Rubin ultra through H2 26, 27 and H1 28 and, crucially, choices when allocating capex for the replacement based 6 year cycle starting in late 2028 shift meaningfully away from custom in house asics and back towards Feynman, with Nvidia benefiting from this timing in particular as they will remain largely supply constrained likely through Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultimate's lifecycle of 1yr each and so the inference+agentic market share strength above expected vs Asics and AMD/Intel GPUs manifests as meaningfully higher revenue growth able to continue well beyond 2028, with incremental revenue uplift depending on if Asics and CPUs are better for a large share and eat up a large portion of the Inference and Agentic market opportunity or not probably being of the order of magnitude of ~100bn in 2029 and growing to say 200bn over a few years.

Any hardware/ai understanding experts who can answer this question for me able to chime in?

Note that I don't consider the Asic and CPU recent surge and growth as evidence to disprove this thesis; Vera Rubin isn't available at scale and inference+agentic capabilities above just blackwell GPUs + limited supply by Nvidia is needed now. This thesis determines what happens through 2030+ -- either ASICs+non-nvidia CPU etc hyperscaler capex market grows towards say 500bn yearly over time, or it stays relatively small, limited to say 100-200bn, while Nvidia Chip revenue purely from Hyperscalers grows to an opportunity of ~500bn over time (by say 2034) in the first case vs more like 800-900bn in the latter case. Note irrelevant somewhat to non-hyperscaler buildout as they don't have the incentives to build custom chips Hence that market remains a solid growth driver nearly monopolised entirely by nvidia through the same period.

The first case is ~the base analyst case currently with Nvidia growing fast in FY27 and 28 before seeing growth sharply moderate to say 15-20% yearly.

The latter represents NVIDIA unlocking an additional demand based revenue uplift from hyperscalers through 2034 allowing continued YoY 30%+ growth through that period to revenue of up to 800bn from hyperscalers and ~1.2trn from other customers by 2034, which would mean 2trn+ in revenue possible in the next ~8 years (requiring roughly 25%+ growth cagr through 2034 post FY27). This would net them a staggering ~1trn in earnings at a fair multiple of something like 35x fwd PE - representing an unimaginably huge market cap of something like 35trn being possible over the nexr 10yrs. Sounds silly almost but the maths doesn't lie and the revenue opportunities for the market as a whole are not really what's being disputed and if they keep their current historical near monopoly on chips for a global AI buildout it's pretty obvious they'd be worth something like that. Question is on the monopoly aspect, not market size...

RIP AMD.

I saw this and said, "what a dumb article". Then I thought, a perfect article for AMD fans who are the same people who buy 8 core CPUs in 2026 because of 1080P gaming performance on a 5090 GPU. AMD fans need articles like this. So here you go.