r/Warmachine

I've been playing Thornfall for a month or two and finally got some colour down on Carver. Really great model.

Characters: Nekane

Finally got the 2nd conduits done. Army shot as well. 83 points done if I run everything. :D

Next up is probably overlords and some agitators.

I painted those guys which I do not remember their name but it’s for the Warmachine game.

I've paint one more HMGC, so here is my GD force right now.

Characters: Old Witch

Suggested by u/Krayt1x

Hey guys just found this up at my lgs's clearance section and decided to finally take the plunge. What would compliment this to get me to the standard playable points?

I’m wrapping up my mid-year data analysis with everyone else’s favorite statistic: army win rates. Previously I covered top-player representation, What Do the Pros Play? and 3-0 tournament starts, Winter Korps Ascending! This wraps up the data analysis I plan to do before moving on to everyone’s favorite kind of content: a tier list.

Before diving into it, I’m obligated to say that Warmachine is a game where skill really differentiates players.  I’m still figuring out how to make this idea concrete, but as a rough start I estimate that a player in the upper skill quartile has around an 80% chance of beating an average player, all things equal.  This means it's not about what faction you play, but how you play it. The opportunity for skill expression is part of why we love this game; it is also why the game can be so punishing for new players.

Anyway, back to the fun stuff.  

Here are the win-rates for each of the Mk4 armies, estimated using data from 7,526 ranked tournament games between January 21 and June 30. The estimates adjust for differences in player Elo/skill and allow army win rates to change over time. The first figure shows the current state of the game, based on June estimates, while the second figure shows how win rates have evolved over the season.

Old Umbrey sits at the top of the pack (appropriate for the Furry faction) with a 60% win rate.  The farmy has an admitted weakness into dedication shooting (36% win rate into Firequill and 37% against Lylyth5), but if you can dodge/play through those matches the Bears and Wolves are undeniably strong.  60% is probably a little bit high; it’s hard to entirely correct for many top-players switching to into OU.

Gyrmkin is the other standout.  The player base is smaller than OU so there’s more uncertainty, and people are still learning how to play with and against the Baba Yaga battalion.  Like OU, Grymkin struggle with heavy shooting (22% into Firequill ) so despite the Slaughterhouse and Old Witch nerfs, the mid-year update may actually be net-positive if Shroud helps shore up those bad matchups. 

I was surprised to see Sea Raiders near the bottom of the pack; the January update breathed new life into the army with a more balanced set of leaders and some good buffs to their Jacks.  Pure speculation: maybe the issue is in how Orgoth interact with SR 2026?    

Gravediggers being near the bottom is doesn’t surprise me at all. Caine4 is a strong warlock (my personal bogeyman!) but he also dies to a stiff breeze, and the player base seems to rely on him heavily. Both Sea Raiders and Gravediggers have top-place finishes at large events, so this may be less “these armies are bad” and more “these armies need careful list construction, favorable pairings, or experienced pilots.”

Overall, I’m not seeing a huge mid-year update effect yet. Some of that is probably my methodology: the model smooths win rates across adjacent months, which is usually helpful but not ideal for detecting sudden patch effects. It also takes time for players and the meta to adapt. I’m curious to see whether the July and August data make the update look more impactful.

So that’s the mid-year statistical tour: top-player representation, 3-0 starts, and now adjusted win rates. Next comes the only logical conclusion: wildly overconfident tier-list.