OOPS - I'm A Compatibilist!
We are ultimately “sock puppets of physics” - my view on that has not changed. But
here’s my new position as clearly as I can state it:
I do not think humans possess magical, acausal, libertarian free will. Every thought, preference, instinct, and decision arises from prior causes.
But the traditional framing of the debate is confused.
A sufficiently recursive system that makes decisions, understands what decisions are, and models itself as an agent, but cannot fully calculate or inventory all the variables causing its own decisions, will necessarily experience its decisions as internally unresolved until the moment of choice.
That experience is what I now think “free will” actually is.
Not freedom from causality.
Freedom from complete self-transparency.
Humans cannot fully derive their next thought before thinking it. If they could, the thought would already exist. A mind is part of the causal system it is trying to model, and complete self-modeling is computationally impossible.
From the inside, our decisions appear open or 'free', but that is because the system cannot fully access the causality generating itself.
In other words, determinism is true at the physical level and free will emerges phenomenologically due to the epistemic limitations on self-awareness.
"Free will" is simulated by humans - the experience is real and part of the conscious process.
And if this is correct, sufficiently advanced AI systems may eventually experience the same thing.
At this point I’m not even sure “free will vs determinism” is the right debate anymore.
I think there are systems capable of recursive self-modeling under uncertainty, and systems that are not.
A hurricane follows physics.
A human follows physics while also experiencing itself as choosing.
That is the difference.