
Sam Harris is wrong about calories entering Gaza during the war (originally posted on Community)
(This was originally posted on Sam’s Community platform. See submission statement in comments)
Sam recently asked what he is wrong about, so here is one. I also have a suggestion for how he can get his points across more effectively on the Gaza issue.
Sam has claimed at least a couple of times that at every point during the war, the number of calories going into Gaza was around 3000:
More From Sam, March 18, 53:48: “But the average number of calories that got into Gaza at every point during the war was something like 3000 per person. There was no famine in Gaza.”
More From Sam, May 26, 36:33: “People have analyzed the average calorie count that got into Gaza throughout the whole war, something like 3000 calories per person a day. We are not talking about a condition under which people are gonna be starving to death.”
As far as I can tell, the only peer-reviewed study on the number of calories entering Gaza is one conducted by researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Israeli Ministry of Health: Food supplied to Gaza during seven months of the Hamas-Israel war. This study used aid registry data by COGAT to estimate that between January and July 2024, an average of 3004 kcal per person per day entered Gaza. So I’m sure this is the study Sam is referring to.
But those are just 7 months of the war, not “every point during the war”. And these 7 months saw a relatively large amount of aid compared to the rest of the war (COGAT data). And COGAT’s data has itself been criticized for being unreliable and featuring extreme approximations (Source).
We don’t know the average number of calories that entered Gaza throughout the whole war and Sam therefore can’t use it as part of an argument for why there was never any famine in Gaza. I don’t think you can rule out that parts of northern Gaza briefly met the conditions for famine. At least I don’t know what, except that vaguely referenced study, makes Sam so confident there was none.
And that leads me to my suggestion for Sam. I wish you would back up your claims with sources more often. Specifically on this issue where half your audience are baffled by your views.
I know I’m not alone in being bewildered by the discrepancy between your claims and what the UN, WHO, Reuters, IPC, ICJ and others are saying, organizations I always thought were trustworthy. If you weren’t part of my information diet, I’m sure I’d blindly believe them. But now I’m just confused and very curious about your information diet.
Jaron tried to get at this in the latest episode of More From Sam: “but where are you getting your information that none of this happened?…” (36:09). Sam then said “people have looked into this…” and “people have analyzed…”
My suggestion is that when you make claims with huge implications, such as the assertion that the IDF has kept collateral damage lower than in any comparable war we ever fought (More From Sam, March 18, 48:00), then it’s worth following it up with: “And how do we know this? Because of X.”
Because that fact alone is surely enough to rule out genocide in the heads of most people. But not if they have to take it at your word.
Thanks for reading and please tell me if I’m wrong!