u/ConstantinSpecter

Vorneweg: Aschebrenner hat was Risikomanagement angeht ordentlich reingeschissen.

Da kann und sollte man kritisieren. Insbesondere wir in diesem Sub wissen: Der Hebel gibt, der Hebel nimmt (und Ken Griffin nimmt den Rest).

Die Memes sind lustig. Aber was mich ehrlich ankotzt in deutschen Subs ins diese fast erleichterte deutsche "Ha! Wusste ich doch dass der Bengel überschätzt ist!"

Habe weniger den Eindruck dass da ein katastrophal waghalsiger Trade kritisiert wird, als dass viele einfach ffroh sind dass endlich wieder jemand auf "deutschels Normalmaß" zurechtgestuft wurde.

Da geht ein Dude aus Deutschland in die Staaten, schließt als Jahrgangsbester in Columbia ab, arbeitet im Superalignment Team von OpenAI, schreibt ein KI Paper welches Wellen in der Branche schlägt und sammelt dann mit anfang 20 knapp 1.8 Milliarden Dollar für seinen Fund ein. Noch vor seinem 25. Geburstag wächst daraus ein Fundvermögen von ~45 Milliarden.

Selbst nach der katastrophalen Implosion bleiben immer noch 10 Milliarden an privaten Beteiligungen und ein YTD Gewinn von ~80% (zum Vergleich, Dax 4.4%).

So viel zu "komplett verbranntem Investorengeld". Again, man kann zurecht Kritik üben aber seine Laufbahn bleibt objektiv ausßergewöhnlich.

Habe selbst als deutscher Gründer einige zeit im Valley verbracht und sicher sind nicht alle Amis Cheerleader und alle Deutschen Miesepeter aber ich würde lügen würde ich behaupten der kulturelle Unterschied wäre nicht deutlich spürbar gewesen.

Die Amis reagieren auf ein irres Vorhaben mit: "Spannend, was müsste zutreffen damit das klappt? Wie kann ich helfen". Und wir mit: "Warum sollte das funktionieren? Für wen hälst du dich eigentlich?"

Ständig beschweren wir uns über der wirtschaftlichen Niedergang, fehlende Innovation, zu wenig Risikokapital und darüber dass die ambitioniertesten Leute in die USA gehen. Aber gleichzeitig freuen wir uns geradezu wenn jemand der sichtbar über den Rest hinauswächst, stolpert, damit man ihn wieder auf den Boden holen kann.

Lasst uns die Trades kritisieren und funny memes machen. Aber dieses hörbare aufatmen darüber, dass der deutsche Überflieger endlich auf die Fresse geflogen ist ist exakt der kulturelle Reflex wegen dem hier immer weniger versuchen überhaupt hoch zu fliegen - oder eben dieses Land verlassen.

TLDR: Long Rheinmetall

The LFW crowd can sit this one out - your disagreement is with physics. This post is solely aimed at compatibilists.

I'll grant all semantics upfront. I don't think the definitional question is the interesting one. If you want to call reasons/responsive, coercion free action "free will" you can (the same way I could define flight as "coordinated falling" as human flight). Again, I really don't care about the term and will grant the compantibilist definition. My claim is that the relabeled concept no longer does the job the original one was doing.

As far as I can tell one structural job of free will is basic desert. The idea that a person can deserve blame, punishment or suffering in a purely backward-looking way. Importantly not solely because it deters or rehabilitates but because they deserve it. Retributive justice depends on it, moral outrage depends on it, most of the intuitions people protect when they keep the term depend on it.

So here's my question that would genuinely change my view if answered convincingly:

Does compatibilist free will ground basic desert? Yes or no?

If yes then plese walk me through the mechanism. A brain state at t1 evolves into a brain state at t2 under physics. There's no unconditional "could have done otherwise" (which compatibilism grants). So at which point in that very trajectory does the property "deserves to suffer for this" get instantiated and by what process?

If you're inclined to respond: "Well the action flowed from his own reasons/responsive mechanism" that doesn't resolve it for me because he didn't select the mechanism and didn't select the reasons it responds to.

If no then we agree on the physics, agree there's no basic desert and agree punishment can only be justified forward-looking meaning deterrence, containment and rehabilitation. Which is the hard determinist position and then it seems like the only remaining disagreement is which definition gets custody of two english words.

The algorithm randomly served me this from a couple months ago where Sam went on a podcast hosted by two Buddhist monks. If you’re into his politics content - this won’t be for you. For the folks interested in contemplative topics - he goes deep on what he actually values in Buddhism while staying characteristically blunt about the parts he considers woo.

What truly surprised me: He doesn’t outright deny the Buddhist concept of rebirth (I kinda do) but stays agnostic about it.

I’ve heard him cover this ground for years and still learned a lot in this particular episode. Might be interesting for other here.

Okay, hate to say it but I have to eat my words. Day one I was fully in the "shitting on can you feel it" camp.

Kept listening through the sheer exposure through the social media algos and now I'm at something like 30 plays and somewhere in there I went from hating to genuinely loving it.

Not sure if the song had to grind me down before I got it or if it's an acquired taste thing. Wondering if anyone went through the same arc or if I'm just experiencing Stockholm syndome?

That's all.

When Sam announced the community I rolled my eyes and thought "great, another layer of paywalling", another step of him isolating into his own bubble. Almost didn't sign up.

Boy was I was wrong. Two days in and I've had more genuinely interesting, good-faith conversations than in the last months of Reddit use. The difference is really hard to overstate.

Last night I got into a debate with a guy about whether we should "respect" religions - to my surprise, my opponent actually tried to steelman my position before pushing back. Not strawmanning and trying to find a gotcha like I'm used to. Just two people actually trying to get at something true. Can't remember the last time that happened on here to a similar degree.

Yes, the belief demographics are fairly uniform (a survey over there confirmed that) meaning mostly non-believers, very science leaning etc.

Also, the caliber of people was genuinely surprising to me. Most members actually fill out their profiles/bios and when you click through, you find many PhDs, founders, execs, therapists so people with actual skin in the game of the ideas being discussed.

The only thing missing is a mobile app. The day they ship one, I might genuinely have found my Reddit replacement for the most part. Until then, I'm checking it on mobile browser like a caveman.

If you've been on the fence, just try it. I went from skeptic to convert in about 48 hours.

Got randomly recommended this stream where a guy is livestreaming his attempt to vibe code a tool to $1M ARR. I’m not categorically opposed to LLM assisted coding but It boat boggles my mind - wtf am I watching. This guy is context switching between a dozen sessions while talking to chat and replying to customers.

My gut feel says that this is a dumpster fire in the making. It’s so radically different from how I actually work that I am doubting where I just can’t recognize it and am watching the future or a whether it indeed is a slowmo car crash.

I’m sure his sub will have thoughts. Curious what they are.