On the chart, we see a potential head and shoulders pattern and its target.

Tell me your views according to your price action and psychology...

It's a Sensex (BSE) Indian market index...

I've been building NodaFlux for a few months. It reads the market regime of an
asset — is it trending, is it building a bottom, is the move running out of
steam — and it says how confident it is, including when the answer is "several
scenarios are still open".


That last part is the whole point. Most tools give you a number and no idea how
much to trust it.


What's there right now:
- 144 assets: stocks, ETFs, crypto, commodities
- A live track record — open and closed positions, including the losing ones
- An academy with ~100 topics, in English and Spanish
- Daily and weekly alerts by email


What I need from testers: tell me where it's confusing. I've been staring at
this for months and I've lost the ability to see what a new person sees. The
onboarding especially — I don't know if it explains itself or if it assumes you
already know what a CHoCH is.


Free, no card, no time limit during the beta. It's a login by email code, no
password.


https://beta.nodaflux.com


Happy to answer anything about how the engine works — I'd rather explain the
method than sell the product :)

Almost every trader has heard some version of this:

"A support or resistance zone gets weaker with every touch."

But is that actually true? I heard the claim plenty of times myself, but I've never seen anyone try to quantify it. So I tested it.

TL;DR: I tested the claim that support and resistance zones weaken with every touch using 18 years of NQ and Gold data. Bounce rates dropped after the first retest, then remained roughly flat: in this sample, the fifth touch was no less likely to bounce than the second. The randomized control showed a similar curve, including the initial drop.

Methodology

I used 18 years of NQ and Gold data on the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes.

I tested two methods for identifying support and resistance zones:

1. Swing highs and lows, using a lookback period of 10
2. My own supply-and-demand method based on market structure

Because support and resistance are better treated as zones than exact prices, I defined each zone as ±0.5 ATR around the identified level (for swing highs/lows).

When price touched a zone, one of two outcomes could occur:

- Break: a candle body closed beyond the zone
- Hold: price moved at least 1 ATR away from the zone

After a hold, the program waited for price to touch the zone again. I also repeated the test with a stricter 2 ATR threshold, which is labelled "big bounce" in the attached results.

For comparison, I created randomized versions of the NQ and Gold markets to use as controls.

Results

Across both assets, both timeframes and both zone-detection methods, I found roughly the same pattern:

The probability of a bounce dropped after the first retest, but it did not continue declining with each additional touch.

In other words, a bounce on the fifth touch was not consistently less likely than a bounce on the second touch.

Based on this test, I found no consistent evidence for the common claim that every additional touch makes a support or resistance zone progressively weaker.

Interestingly, the randomized control markets showed a similar pattern.

The full sample included:
- 34,215 zones
- 111,129 monitored touches

I've attached the raw results and the bounce probability by number of touches. "Normal bounce" means a move of at least 1 ATR away from the zone, while "big bounce" means at least 2 ATR.

There are still limitations to this test, especially around zone definitions and the fact that later touches only exist when a zone survives earlier ones.

Happy to further discuss the study or methodology!

So Micron just locked in a 4%+ gain to close at over $1011, marking a 17.5% 5-day run that's caught a lot of eyes. The options flow has leaned heavy on calls this session, ~793k calls vs ~584k puts traded, but the open interest snapshot before the move still shows way more puts sitting out there than calls. That mismatch is way more interesting than the basic volume ratio most casual traders are looking at right now. Anyone else think this weird open interest skew is setting up for a bigger move once that positioning unwinds? Spotted the unusual strike-level breakdown through the mm engine tool, super easy to spot the clustered OI spikes around that new $1k+ price range.

Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

I like to keep things simple. This is a 5 minute chart. On this chart I entered here.

The reason was the 9ema crossing the 20sma while at the same time the 200ema coming down at a steep angle. Couple those with the bollinger bands getting tighter it was the perfect set up for a continuation of the run upwards.

This was SPCX yesterday and I bought $1500 in 9/21 $138C. My price target for this trade was $142 since the upper band was at $139 and there is always expansion on this type of move. It didn’t expand as much as I hoped but exited after 2 hours at $140 with a tidy $400 profit.

Finding entries to trade is something that I find to be pretty easy it’s the exit I struggle with. I’ll usually exit early with a 30-50% profit even though all the charts are pointing to continuation. How can I bring myself to trust the longer runs? Will I have to dust big profits a few times to watch these play out?

Since starting 6 weeks ago I’ve had around 40% in gains on a $20k account. But, I could have easily turned that $20k to $100-150k by letting them run. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

$Amkr dropped sharply from $95 and lost all SMAs. Found strong support at $42. Reclaimed and found support at 200-sma. Reclaimed 20-sma. RSI slopping up from oversold territory to neutral zone(50). ADX moving sideway(20), indicating sell pressure has diminished. $Amkr is in consolidation mode with immediate resistance at $65-70. Support at $48-50.

Action: Sell $70 calls and $48 put. Buy ATM calls for a possible $10 move to the upside.

Alright, SanDisk's had a wild stretch even by its own standards. Closed at $1528.11 today, up 13.67%. Hit $1580.88 at the high, opened around $1339.83. Volume was 22M – decent buying after back-to-back catalysts.

Pre-market ripping again to about $1590, up another 4% – momentum carrying over.

Here's the GEX setup:

Put Wall $1500, Call Wall $1500 (both at the same level), gamma flip around $1358. We closed above both walls – positive gamma now, dealers supporting the upside. GEX? Never heard of it? Here ya go

Technically, we bounced off the middle Bollinger band ($1339) and are now heading toward the upper band ($1651). RSI in the mid 60s. MACD just crossed positive – momentum shifting up.

So what's driving this? Two catalysts stacked up. First, a joint Kioxia announcement popped it 8.9%. Then Investor Day added another leg up – stock ripped 13% today. That's two separate events in a matter of days.

Zoom out though – this thing's 52-week range is $42 to $2,354. Not a typo. It ran to $2,335 in June, got hammered, and now it's clawing back. The real debate isn't "is the AI memory story real" – everyone's past that. It's whether this is an actual bottom or just another relief rally inside a bigger downtrend.

Fundamentals wise, last print was strong – record quarter north of $8.9B, sales up ~370% YoY, EPS beat by double digits. But guidance came in just under the most bullish expectations, so the stock dipped anyway. Classic priced-for-perfection behavior.

Short-term, $1500 is now support. Next levels to watch are $1600-1650. Below $1500 and it flips back to resistance.

Pre-market at $1590 is testing that next level. Let's see if it holds.

What's your move – riding the momentum or waiting for a pullback?

DYOD🫡

The doji candle is disturbing.

gold's sitting right near its highs around $4,413, coiling in a tight range just under $4,420 as the print approaches. the tell is that it's not pulling back ahead of the number, buyers are holding ground into the event, which usually means positioning is leaning long. meanwhile the dollar's basically flat (DXY 99.84) and yields are slightly soft.

that's the divergence worth watching: gold's holding firm largely on its own, softer yields, last week's weak NFP, safe-haven bid, momentum, while FX traders sit on their hands and wait for the actual number. one side's read is about to get confirmed or blown up.

consensus is headline +0.1% MoM / 3.4% YoY, core +0.2% / 2.5%. core's the one that matters. soft core and the dollar finally joins gold lower, confirmation, and the longs get paid. hot core (0.3%+), especially services/shelter, and hike odds jump, yields and the dollar pop, and gold's suddenly the most exposed thing on the board, precisely because so much long positioning is already sitting in the price. a crowded long into a hot print is how you get a sharp unwind, not a gentle fade.

genuinely curious how the room's playing it:

• gold refusing to pull back into the print, bullish conviction, or a crowded long setting up for a flush?
• are you trimming a gold long before a number like this, or holding through it?
• if core comes in hot, how violent's the unwind given how far it's already run from $4,090?

$ASTD double bottom at $52. Making higher high and lower low since July 1st. 20-SMA crossed over 50-SMA on August 3rd and crossed over 200-SMA on August 6th. Both ADX and RSI slopping up along with price since July 29th.

Confirmation of reversal: If $ASTS make another higher high and close over $73.80, $90 will be the next target.

Action: Buy calls if reversal is confirmed. Exit trade at $90.

Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. I am not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

📊 Key U.S. Economic Data (ET)

8:30 AM | Core PPI m/m | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2% 8:30 AM | PPI m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.3% 8:30 AM | Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 202K | Previous: 199K

⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #PPI #UnemploymentClaims

Curious what you all think will happen based on the run up the past few years. From my analysis, it broke back into the channel traded in late ‘23 to mid ‘25 before going exponential. Its retesting the top of the current downtrend and the top of the previous channel almost right at the apex. My guess is it’ll turn back down and stay in the downtrend as money flows toward stocks as inflation worries cool.