When retail short term trading became accessible to average people the get rich quick scheme was to waste millions of hours (and dollars) trying to guess the next big one, penny stock. The smart traders bypassed that step. They wouldn't guess. They would wait until the next one popped then wait for exhaustion signs of the inevitable crash. And short it. I remembered.

AMZN is the exact same classic setup they were using. It's not a penny stock it's a mega cap. People believe this is normal market behavior. It's not. It won't last forever. But it might be surprising how long it goes on for.

I wouldn't have never been able to guess AMZN would go up 27% in 3 days. But the second part was easy to figure out. The lesson is remember the old lessons.

https://preview.redd.it/tq2oqe18q4kh1.jpg?width=1581&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6f3a494d3f3e0e4694dec41db95beed810e88d28

Here's the MSFT penny stock. Anybody see a pattern?

https://preview.redd.it/wixmxmbrr4kh1.png?width=1581&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eb189e9801c920da454ff006cb75f2a8e2ef60b

This is the Amazon 1 minute chart from the opening. There are many other ones, the bigger stocks, some up some down. Most of them erratic. They are not really suppose to behave like that. I know it doesn't seem like much it looks a little suspicious to me. That's all I got.

https://preview.redd.it/420vc6v4y1kh1.png?width=1584&format=png&auto=webp&s=35beae27c7b74b9bc832347bf810c820ef18e414

Interesting chart. I'm not going to speculate, it looks too obvious.

https://preview.redd.it/cjt9hqnhj5jh1.jpg?width=1524&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d90623e2d80e92adf2508c375209f194e62e123

Here's the share release. Option hedging is illegal for lockup shares. But different rules for different people. Regardless it's still a large amount of shares released on the market. I didn't bother to figure out the P/S it's such a ridiculous number.

https://preview.redd.it/p2p14r8oj5jh1.jpg?width=1836&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f4e6aad61c95d5e0293e66491641f9738d575aa

Analyst says $800. In 12 months.

https://preview.redd.it/0j5a7kywl5jh1.jpg?width=1401&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=02f7378ea84a058edbe487359ef82a0af886f4fa

If you didn't sell before you should be reviewing now. That's a lot of red bars.

https://preview.redd.it/n853e9lhbrih1.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d5e3c3a9517349b47b16cc34fec861cb61d8b40

I didn't have a good reason for selling. I didn't like what I was seeing. It didn't seem to be able to push out to a new high when it should have. It was up that day so I sold. Lucky. I figure it's a take profits when you got them kind of market. I bought the breakout on July 2.

https://preview.redd.it/k7x4td1vbrih1.jpg?width=1587&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0c91e37f3422ac15367b355103efd435c8e3bb6

Here's the IBOVESPA chart it's nice and clean. I don't know if the ETF tracks exactly.

https://preview.redd.it/mw5fx5yodrih1.png?width=1591&format=png&auto=webp&s=88d7bc5c4c82b703237c457a3bf0d6f780661bb4

S&P daily. Here's the old one. Flag, pennant, it's not contained perfectly but it's close enough.

https://preview.redd.it/ax06b2d2lzhh1.jpg?width=1590&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba6b0d5fa56adc918807b870335d78d1200a9a56

S&P 30 minute. Current mini flag. The flag may need adjusting as time goes by. It may not be a flag at all in the end.

https://preview.redd.it/7itesatnlzhh1.jpg?width=1593&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f565388eb5de1f65934ad9c9d144203d32b3f8c

It's a consolidation range that will breakout eventually. Which can be up or down.

Qs daily, are lagging. I left the lines in the same starting points to show that.

https://preview.redd.it/la44r4vamzhh1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf839873e03607d0053fd7ba7fcaa80015b7f500

RSP daily. You can see how much stronger RSP equal weight is. And has been the entire time.

https://preview.redd.it/0pie4ssimzhh1.png?width=1587&format=png&auto=webp&s=41a501d4a3a8f82ef5a9c6cfc63514524f8b4d55

I see BTC as the steady sensible market barometer for the last few months. No wild swings from garbage news stupidity.

Is not really doing much. The green line - short term momentum is starting to curl over a tiny amount but not much. The price is still near the recent high from a couple weeks ago. In the longer term the price hasn't done much for 2 months.

https://preview.redd.it/hks1r4hfishh1.png?width=1587&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a07abb8c644a0ea62d0dcf26c67072b583b528e

Price stuck between the blue and red lines. Undecided.

https://preview.redd.it/ez8yn97sjshh1.png?width=1586&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b0fe1e246f9faa787c196ab717c29e83d5edf88

Don't even need lines. One big fat crayon pretty much covers it.

https://preview.redd.it/w9xc0d97kshh1.jpg?width=1587&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80b446ab8d6af37215df28f99fea53fbd8ff5702

So I started a little short. I'll either add to it or flip it to long. Or nothing will work and I'll forget about it.

https://preview.redd.it/urfgty2utmhh1.jpg?width=1401&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe7a0d6fe37857e3a93e121438bcd473bacf483d

https://preview.redd.it/llby4rp6umhh1.png?width=1171&format=png&auto=webp&s=953eb90b841dbca5a3247cd526f33e5cc7a41922

Strong buy!

Tomorrow, Aug 6, some of the lockups expire. The people in lockups are not allowed to use options for hedging. Some can or have used SWAPS but all they are doing is transferring the risk to another party. The 3rd party sure doesn't care about SPCX. All they want to do is get out of their situation as fast as possible.

https://preview.redd.it/iyjsdmo6vmhh1.jpg?width=1589&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f325f82fd9e200e787e74754260411fe589bb527

Why trading isn't easy. I knew this was going to breakout of the range. I didn't know if it was up or down. But that's an easy problem to deal with, wait for it. But now it's a 12% gap. What am I suppose to do? It's way too loose of stop for me. You can see the size of the old gaps on the chart, up and down.

https://preview.redd.it/45zf0pa07khh1.png?width=1587&format=png&auto=webp&s=913690ff387bc58815db36c1f8ca7ad08ca1e99d

This one is almost the same but looks like it might be headed down.

https://preview.redd.it/tp2ql4wm8khh1.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b228e7688dd285e9f1a574191a19dccdb943dcf

This looks like the same thing as the Chinese manipulate their stock market. Which never works in the long run.

MSFT was at 2 1/2 year lows then getting back to near all time highs. Most of it in 3 days.

https://preview.redd.it/9xcr0u89p6hh1.png?width=1586&format=png&auto=webp&s=458caa63e1c0f347d543d8e175935248c1592a31

AMZN 20% selloff. 3 days later all time highs.

https://preview.redd.it/kwtrpcxmp6hh1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=57a4ca71aaceb9aca4474ca89aca0088c07d9866

META jumps around a lot but still.

https://preview.redd.it/yh5cwcxaq6hh1.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=acdb505fa23b9dc79a6609a04ec616ef20bb0b87

GOOG not as much but looks fishy

https://preview.redd.it/q1arqwcjq6hh1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6b9c4531a1ffc00ab184773f685c0ec06254f62

Add on:

Maybe the Japanese did it.

In order to make the Yen do this

https://preview.redd.it/3q9cyfavt6hh1.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f582eb35abb6fb79f4ab4b70e45e13924db0658

The Japan central bank would have to buy large amounts of Yen. Sell other currencies, USD. The recipients of the USD put the USD into other things like US mega caps. It's probably much more complicated than that with other players getting involved. And other ones on top of that taking advantage of the situation.

One more chart:

JGBs still out of control. The large drop was central bank intervention. They have some problems and have to intervene with everything. The market keeps pushing it back up. The more time that goes by the bigger and wilder the swings get.

https://preview.redd.it/uv9g5yqev6hh1.png?width=1542&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2e93b3a2cd7e50441bfed4048979547ebd8e158

See what I did there. See if everybody is asleep.

I wouldn't buy it here. General market conditions are poor and it's not making much upward progress after the breakout.

https://preview.redd.it/63arsdke5ugh1.jpg?width=1588&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb8227e2b6dbd278c4b9d30a4cda07978e83954e

Should add this chart as well. There's plenty of stocks near all time highs. It's kinda scary to buy them with a large part of the market doing poorly.

https://preview.redd.it/5sa6l4dm8ugh1.jpg?width=1586&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f269943b12c4108bcfc00c6b70e6b2830f221f1

Somebody should have picked it up for her.

It didn't participate today which is ok. Because it was up at all time highs and doing really well recently. And people were waiting for the earnings event.

A reaction like this is a really bad sign. With the euphoric market today it should not have gone down if it was strong. It should have had a positive reaction. That's a bad sign.

Now it's a mess. Nobody should have got creamed here. It's down a reasonable 7% and back to were it was only 2 weeks ago. If you own it make sure you have stop line drawn in a stick to it. You can ladder the stops at a few different levels. The market doesn't know or care what price you bought something at. You have to put your stop in based on the chart.

https://preview.redd.it/dy6lwy1lbhgh1.jpg?width=1590&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d0cd6833ffdfc7893cb03eb7615483d43beb90f

Going into every FOMC event, or any big market event, the VIX spikes because of uncertainty before the meeting. After uncertainty passes there is a vol crush - VIX drops. Which sends the indexes up.

There is one exception. The market wasn't considering a worse situation which sends the VIX up higher after.

https://preview.redd.it/9s9a4s9ca7gh1.jpg?width=1588&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8c9c915fcf1f01c9064758d308d3c219844cefd2

Right now QQQ is at an extreme short term oversold with the exception of severe selloffs.

https://preview.redd.it/hwzf2urfa7gh1.jpg?width=1585&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3280e8a23b3bf00bc2289f9d1271305f394c2473

I don't think the Fed wants to shock the market but we'll see.

When the market starts bouncing around later today you'll know the reason.

ANDE chart doesn't look very good anymore. If it breaks out it's fine. Be careful of a break down.

https://preview.redd.it/8wnegym6c6gh1.jpg?width=1591&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=844fa7d8772281de7af96572cb9db41def5afbc8

NTR I check my stocks everyday. Every time I look NTR it's always showing red. I check the chart and the price is above all the lines so it's ok. It doesn't have to be complicated to work.

https://preview.redd.it/nef6nbxuc6gh1.jpg?width=1585&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5e56df63ebafcb87c40b61192a3798767dfdecd

XLV New highs. XLF, RSP are the same. Index pinning is the reason. Some stocks go down which forces these up.

https://preview.redd.it/czeohbb5d6gh1.jpg?width=1591&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=081b976327bfb83614e86e83b7dbcb3e970105b3

https://preview.redd.it/y21n6zqrd6gh1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=512e44e22b44f1694bd9a2a61db0dc71e9544857

It starts out by going up 200% in a straight line. Now I guess it's going to reverse the process. I don't know what it's going to do but it's looks like it. All the drama for nothing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DRAM/

Hynix Samsung Sandisk are the main holdings.

https://preview.redd.it/rk6ykha610gh1.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=69f08ae17f43b4d67220e1afa74e0c9819c3e732

It's a famous qoute from the flash crash. https://youtu.be/E1xqSZy9_4I?si=LFNsl-wfKBYuXRg-&t=60 Turn the volume down.

I thought there might be a day or 2 of rally but nope. They sold it right from the open.

https://preview.redd.it/bzur9uw45sfh1.png?width=1586&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f4396318d5b286f25dd5d8543eb1729884a2555

The persistent selling isn't something to fight. Don't try to buy the dip until it's the last dip.

https://preview.redd.it/n9w5cgdi5sfh1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=70ec443e1bc385e0f9b898afa824c918c372a944

I don't remember all the ones people were looking at. I did the two main ones. My charts are messy but I don't care.

SPY

https://preview.redd.it/l68hxjzmr6fh1.jpg?width=1590&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bab0e3ae37b3dfd5147ce90aaf4c0826ecb8e2e7

Qs I say the Qs lead the market. The second half of the diamond on QQQ was pointed more down than SPY. And that's where it's going.

https://preview.redd.it/iidoj6snq6fh1.jpg?width=1588&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=187e315136312e86043e8e742cbdd0464455d9a0

It's on the chart. Currently down 18% from the high. That's more than a minor amount.

Add Rule 18 - don't fight the market

The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

Add one more bit. Yesterday was VIX OPEX. If something were to happen today or in the next few days the news is going to come with some drama story and tell you that's the reason. Volatility positioning has a big influence on the market. If there is repositioning in volatility that will have a big influence on the market.

https://preview.redd.it/g3u1gi0e0zeh1.jpg?width=1591&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f9a4439c6425be011b77f3d38a3e66f097777c1