**Fresh ATHs, Rising Yields & Fed Minutes at 2 PM — Is This Dip a Buy? | Oct. 7 Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, AAPL, TSLA**

**Fresh ATHs, Rising Yields & Fed Minutes at 2 PM — Is This Dip a Buy? | Oct. 7 Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, AAPL, TSLA**

Good morning brief for Wednesday, October 7:

📅 Eco calendar (ET)

10:30am — EIA petroleum status report

1:00pm — $39B 10-yr note auction

2:00pm — FOMC minutes (Sept 15–16 meeting) ← the week's high-impact release

3:00pm — Consumer credit (Aug)

📊 Earnings

APLD: after close, cons -$0.30 EPS / $116M rev; options pricing ~±13.5% move

🌅 Premarket snapshot

Futures (6am): Dow -178 pts (-0.34%), S&P -0.14%, Nasdaq 100 -0.41%

30Y 5.70% — highest since 2002; 10Y ~5.31%; Brent back over $100 (~$101.65), WTI ~$90.38

Movers: MU -2.2%, MRVL -1.2% (chips weak), SPCX -2.1% (raising $40B to buy NVDA chips), INTC +1.3% (Musk Terafab news); VIX +3.3% to 15.52

🔻 Why the pullback

Profit-taking after the S&P and Nasdaq both closed at records Tuesday on the AI rally, plus 30Y yields at 2002 highs, oil back over $100 on the Saudi-Houthi escalation, and caution ahead of the 2pm Fed minutes

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📊 $/ES broke out yesterday and made ATH yesterday, this morning pulling back holds this demand its a long entry

• 7857.75 pivot

• Hold → 7897.50 supply

• Lose → 7838.50 7824-720 7810 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🍏 $AAPL holding nicely this morning can clear the pivot we go to supply zone

• 334.99-334.37 pivot

• Hold → 336.22 338.55-339.57 supply

• Lose → 330.81-329.59 demand

🔥🔥 🧠 $AMD made new ath yesterday and this morning pulling back cant hold pivot we going to 624.52 then we see

• 639 pivot

• Hold → 645.46 658.52 supply

• Lose → 624.52 615.99 demand

📦 $AMZN made a nice move yesterday and this morning puling back, holds pivot we go back to supply zone, cant hold pivot we going lower to demand levels

• 255.19 pivot

• Hold → 257.04-258 supply

• Lose → 253.56 251.93 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🪙 $COIN just cant get the bid lately. cant hold pivot we slide downside ,

• 180.81 pivot

• Hold → 184.93 187.39 supply

• Lose → 179.30 175.55-174.44 demand

🔎 $GOOGL held demand yesterday and made a nice move, this morning holds pivot we go higher cant hold pivot we go to demand zone

• 347.25 pivot

• Hold → 349. 351.60 357.61-359.68 supply

• Lose → 344.68-342.98 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META like her above the pivot holds pivot we can go to 751, cant hold pivot watch yesterdays lows cant hold it then 721 comes

• 740.91 pivot

• Hold → 751 759.16 770.60 supply

• Lose → 721.30 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🖥️ $NVDA made new ATH yesterday this morning holds this demand can long into yesterdays hod, cant hold then 234 comes to play

• Hold → 243.37 supply

• Lose → 236.54-237.88 demand

⚡ $TSLA came to supply zone yesterday and rejected this morning cant hold pivot we go lower to demand, holds pivot we go to supply zone

• 377.22 pivot

• Hold → 384.04-386.61 supply

• Lose → 374.60-372.90 demand

📊 $VIX watch 16 to see we break or reject, breaks 16 and holds market can pull back

• 16 pivot

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!RexWak4w

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 8 days ago

Only won 62% of my trades today. Still finished GREEN QThis is why I don’t give a shit about being right every trade 😂

9 trades today.
62% win rate.
Nothing crazy. Definitely wasn’t perfect.
$TSLA got me twice 😂
390C → -12.7%
Re-entry → -9%
Then I took an $SPX 7830C and cut that for -16.7% too.
Three losses. Cut them. Moved the hell on.
Meanwhile the trades that worked… I gave them room to WORK.
$NVDA 240C: $1.50 → $5.00 +233% 🔥
This was the swing from yesterday. Locked more today.
$SPX 7840C: $2.90 → $10.50 +262% 🤯
Scaled the entire way up and all out at $10.50.
$PLTR 195C: +55%
$GOOGL 355C: +30%
And my favorite part:
I cut the first $SPX 7830C for -16.7%.
Setup came back.
Took the SAME idea again at $1.95.
Locked $2.45 → $2.75 → $3.25 and still holding 2 runners.
Being wrong the first time doesn’t mean the setup is dead.
That’s trading.
I don’t need a 90% win rate.
I need my losers small enough that they don’t matter when I catch the trades that actually move.
Cut the shit.
Re-enter when price confirms.
Let the winners WORK.
62% was plenty today. 😂🔥
Level to level. 🎯

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 8 days ago

New Highs, Tight Squeezes & Key Breakout Levels 🔥 | Tuesday Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, META, TSLA + /ES

Good morning brief for Tuesday, October 6:

📅 Eco calendar (ET)

8:30 AM — International trade balance, Aug (goods & services)

1:00 PM — $58B 3-year note auction

Fed speakers: Bowman (Vice Chair for Supervision), Logan (Dallas), Williams (NY)

This week's market-movers: FOMC minutes Wed 2pm (Sept meeting = first hike since 2023, 3.75–4.00%, 12-0 vote); Sept payrolls came in at just 29k vs 84k expected, unemployment 4.2% → Oct hike odds fading

🌅 Premarket snapshot

Futures: S&P +0.1–0.2%, Nasdaq +0.1–0.2% (record close Monday), Dow +0.3%

10Y ~5.30%, 30Y ~5.66% — near 24-yr highs; 2Y 4.83%

Brent <$100 (~$99.6, -0.7%), WTI ~$88.4 (-1.1%) on rising Middle East supply; gold ~$4,160 flat; BTC ~$85.4k

Movers: NVDA +0.5% after hours (record $238.90, $5.7T mkt cap); AI bid continues — Nasdaq's 23rd record of 2026

Overnight: Nikkei +1.05%, Stoxx 600 +0.7%, Kospi -0.9% (memory-chip drag); China closed for Golden Week

Headlines: Saudi/Yemeni counteroffensive vs Houthis at Mokha port; Aramco CEO says oil inventories could take 2 yrs to rebuild; G7 agreed to release 100M bbl from stockpiles; French bonds sell off, euro >1-yr low

📊 $/ES made a nice move yesterday caught a lil bit of the move in the morning, this morning holds pivot we going to supply zone and see we break it and make new ATH, cant hold pivot then 7810 then 7782 comes to play

• 7824-7820 pivot

• Hold → 7838-7857 supply

• Lose → 7810 7782 7766 demand

🍏 $AAPL inside Supply & Demand zone holding above the mean, breaks supply zone we go to 336 then 338 supply zone

• Hold → 334.37-334.99 336.22 supply

• Lose → 330.81-329.59 demand

🔥🔥 🧠 $AMD inside a tight squeeze and right below ATh, breaks this ATH we can squeeze out on her

• 624.52 pivot

• Hold → 639-645.46 supply

• Lose → 615.99 606.31 596.07 demand

📦 $AMZN inside a tight squeeze and holding above the mean, breaks and holds 253 this can squeeze to next supply levels

• 251.93 pivot

• Hold → 253.56 255.19 257-258 supply

• Lose → 250.43-249.51 247.24 245.78-242.52 demand

⚡ $AVGO started its move yesterday broke a supply zone this morning if pivot cant hold we have to see the supply we broke hold as demand, if we stay above pivot we can push to next supply zone

• 363.28 pivot

• Hold → 374.61-376.59 supply

• Lose → 357.61-350.06 demand

🔎 $GOOGL made a nice move yesterday, breaks pivot this morning we going to 351 then 357 supply zone

• 349 pivot

• Hold → 351.60 357.61-359.68 supply

• Lose → 347.25 344.68-342.98 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🏹 $HOOD holding well holds and breaks Pivot we going to 116 then supply zone

• 114.93 pivot

• Hold → 116.60 119.50-120.88 supply

• Lose → 112.50 111.02 109.71-108.21 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META broke the squeeze yesterday , this morning want to see hold pivot and go to 751 ad continue

• 740.91 pivot

• Hold → 751 759.16 770.60 supply

• Lose → 721.30 demand

📰 Wells Fargo Adjusts Price Target on Meta Platforms to $1,000 From $796, Maintains Overweight Rating — MT Newswires

🔥🔥🔥 🖥️ $NVDA made new ATH finally yesterday this morning want to see hold demand 236.-237.88 comes there and holds we can long again

• Hold → 249.25 supply

• Lose → 236.54-237.88 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🔭 $PLTR at a key demand holds this demand we going to 194 then we see

• 190 pivot

• Hold → 194.68 198.88 supply

• Lose → 187.28 demand

⚡ $TSLA made a nice move yesterday this morning holding above the 200ema and 100sma. holds pivot we going to supply zone , we break this supply zone we squeeze out

• 377.22 pivot

• Hold → 384.04-386.61 389.30 supply

• Lose → 374-372.90 demand

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!ShymZdHg

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 9 days ago

NVDA just broke its channel AND took out the previous ATH… I think she’s starting the engines again 👀🔥

$NVDA is probably my #1 watch next week.

She finally broke out of that channel, took out the previous $236.54 ATH, and printed $237.88 before pulling back.

Daily TTM squeeze has fired. 🔥

And on the WEEKLY, NVDA is still sitting inside a squeeze that hasn't fired yet.

That has my attention.

We've seen what happens when NVDA gets momentum and starts expanding — she can trend for DAYS.

So I'm not interested in blindly chasing the ATH.

My level for next week is $234.76.

I want to see NVDA reclaim that $233.71–$234.76 demand area and HOLD it.

If she does that and I see momentum come in, I'll be looking to trade short-term calls Options for another push into:

$236.54 → $237.88 → price discovery 👀

But there's always another side to the trade.

If that demand can't hold, I'm not forcing calls. Ill cut if im in a trade

Below it I'm watching $232.28, then that $230 area becomes important again.

Reclaim + hold demand = I'm interested.
Lose demand = wait for lower levels.

The daily squeeze already fired.

The weekly squeeze is sitting there loaded.

Now I want to see if NVDA can hold the breakout and start the engines. 🚀

This will be one of my top watches next week.

No prediction. Let the levels confirm it. 🎯

$NVDA

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 12 days ago

No monster trades today. Just cut the crap and pressed what worked 😂

Some days you catch monsters.
Other days you just manage the shit that doesn’t work 😂
Today: 8 trades | 67% win rate |

$COIN couldn’t hold → cut it. Good thing because she kept bleeding.
$MSFT held previous day HOD beautifully. Played it once, setup came back, took ROUND 2:
$1.85 → $5.00 = +170% 🔥
Tried $AMD puts, got stopped at BE. Then AMD held premarket/yesterday’s lows, so I flipped long with next-week calls.
$5.15 → $7.00 — locked most and swinging 1/5.
$SPX gave me a little, but I completely missed that EOD dump 😂 Can’t catch them all.
Nothing crazy today.
Cut the bad ones. Press the clean setups. Move the hell on.
Tomorrow we do it again.
Level to level. 🎯

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 15 days ago

🔥 Breakout or Breakdown? Key Levels to Watch Before MU Earnings Tonight 👀

Good morning traders, Market in a side ways range, Tonight we have MU earnings,

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🔥 📊 $/ES trading at the mean this morning and at demand zone, holds this we go back upside, cant hold this we go to yesterdays lows then 7705 and we see

• 7739-7724 pivot

• Hold → 7766 7782 7801 supply

• Lose → 7705 7680 demand

🍏 $AAPL broke the squeeze downside yesterday and back at demand and 21 ema. holds this zone we can go back to 334 ish , cant hold then 327 comes to play

• 330.81-329.59 pivot

• Hold → 334.37-334.99 supply

• Lose → 327.30 322.37 demand

🔥 🧠 $AMD mentioned yesterday to watch the 624.52 zone, didnt hold and nice downside we got, this morning cant hold pivot we go to 596 cant hold that then 584-574 demand zone

• 606.31 pivot

• Hold → 615.99 624.52 639 supply

• Lose → 596.07 584.73-574 demand

📦 $AMZN holding demand holds this demand could be a long entry

• 247.24 pivot

• Hold → 249.51-250.43 supply

• Lose → 245.78-242.52 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🪙 $COIN this has been side ways and not giving a move, but not breaking downside, holds pivot and reclaims supply zone, i like longs with TIME on this

• 190.96 pivot

• Hold → 192.50-194.01 196.21 supply

• Lose → 187.39 184.93 demand

🔎 $GOOGL in a tight squeeze, i like longs on this name if we can hold above 344.68 this can squeeze to 347.25 then 349 ish , this clears the 344.68 this can squeeze out

• Hold → 342.98-344.68 347.25 349 supply

• Lose → 336.02 332.82 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🏹 $HOOD holding well holds above the 120.88 like this for upside, keep an eye on her this morning

• Hold → 119.50-120.88 124.55-125.25 supply

• Lose → 112.50 111.02 109.71-108.21 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META held nicely and got bought up , this morning below pivot we can go to 721 then 711 cant hold that then 691 comes to play, reclaim the pivot then we go to 759

• 740.91 pivot

• Hold → 759.16 770.60 supply

• Lose → 721.30 711 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🖥️ $NVDA couldnt hold the 230 and gave up, this morning holds pivot we go back to the 230 supply zone, cant hold pivot we go to 224.76

• 227.49 pivot

• Hold → 230.47-230.05 supply

• Lose → 224.76 demand

⚡ $TSLA gave up the 352 demand this morning cant hold this we going to 342 ish

• 352-351 pivot

• Hold → 355.75 363-364 supply

• Lose → 342.11 demand

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!ciUUIZgk

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 15 days ago

ES at a Make-or-Break Demand Zone: Key Levels for AAPL, AMD, AMZN, COIN, GOOGL, HOOD, META, NVDA &amp; TSLA

Good morning traders,

🔥 📊 $/ES trading around the mean and pivot demand zone, holds this zone we go back to 7766 and then we see, cant hold this demand then 7705 then 7680 comes to play

• 7739-7724 pivot

• Hold → 7766 7782 7801 supply

• Lose → 7705 7680 demand

🍏 $AAPL pulling back this morning, cant hold pivot we go lower to 334 demand zone, holds the pivot we go back to supply zone

• 336.22 pivot

• Hold → 338.55-339.57 supply

• Lose → 334.99-334.37 demand

🧠 $AMD holding well. pivot holds we go to 624 then 639 , cant hold pivot then 606 comes to play cant hold that then yesterdays lows then 584 demand zone

• 615.99 pivot

• Hold → 624.52 639 supply

• Lose → 606.31 584.73-574 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📦 $AMZN holding demand well this morning, reclaims the pivot and hold we go to supply zone

• 247.24 pivot

• Hold → 249.51-250.43 supply

• Lose → 245.78-242.52 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🪙 $COIN holding this squeeze like a champ, holds this demand and reclaims pivot we have a range to upside

• 196.21 pivot

• Hold → 204-207 supply

• Lose → 194-192 190 demand

🔎 $GOOGL trading at the 200sma, this morning holds pivot we can go to supply zone and see we break and reclaim it, cant hold pivot we go lower demand levels

• 338.57 pivot

• Hold → 342.98-344.68 supply

• Lose → 336.02 332.82 demand

🏹 $HOOD came to supply yesterday and rejected and then held pivot this morning holds pivot we go to supply zone, breaks and holds supply zone then 124 we going

• 116.60 pivot

• Hold → 119.50-120.88 supply

• Lose → 112.50 111.02 109.71-108.21 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META gives range both sides, below pivot we go to 711 cant hold that then we going to our 691 demand zone, reclaims pivot we going to 740

• 721.30 pivot

• Hold → 740.91 759.16 supply

• Lose → 711 691-686 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🖥️ $NVDA nice squeeze broke yesterday upside, this morning holds pivot we going to 232 then 234 supply zone

• 230.47-230.05 pivot

• Hold → 232.28 233.71 234.76 supply

• Lose → 227.49 demand

🔥🔥🔥 ⚡ $TSLA back at the 355 demand zone holds this , its a nice long to 363-364 ish

• Hold → 363.24-364.02 supply

• Lose → 355-352 demand

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!dCmEcYJu

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 16 days ago

Thursday Trading Watchlist (Sept. 24): /ES Pivot, Jobless Claims &amp; Key Levels for AAPL, AMD, TSLA, META and More

Good Morning traders,

📅 WHAT TO WATCH — THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2026

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 ECON DATA

• 08:30 ET — Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 201K, prev: 196K)

• 08:30 ET — Building Permits (consensus: 1.394M, prev: 1.433M)

🏛️ FED WATCH

• Gov. Michael Barr — speaking today (time TBC)

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee — speaking today (time TBC)

⚠️ TRADER NOTES

• COST (AMC, ~$900 last close): Watch for tariff-adjusted EPS clarity — Oppenheimer's Rupesh Parikh flagged downside risk if US tariff refunds are stripped from headline numbers; bull case requires $6.80+ print with strong membership renewal data and FY2027 guidance; first upside target cited at $915.52 weekly R1

• Claims at 08:30 are the highest-frequency labor read in the room today — with the Fed in active hiking mode and next FOMC just 33 days out, a meaningful miss vs. the 201K consensus in either direction could reprice October hike odds and move rate-sensitive sectors (financials, utilities, homebuilders) at the open

&gt;

.

📊 $/ES pulling back to the mean holds this pivot we go back to 7766 and then we see, cant hold pivot we go to 7705 cant hold that then 7680 comes to play

• 7724-7739 pivot

• Hold → 7766 7782 supply

• Lose → 7705 7680 demand

🍏 $AAPL pulled back yesterday and this morning watch pivot holds pivot we go to supply zone break and hold that then 344.57 comes to play

• 336.22 pivot

• Hold → 338.55-339.57 344.57 supply

• Lose → 334.99-334.37 330.81-329.59 demand

🧠 $AMD has been the new Sheriff in town, this morning cant hold pivot we go to demand zone,

• 606.31 pivot

• Hold → 615.99 624.52 supply

• Lose → 584.73-574.20 demand

📦 $AMZN gave up big demand yesterday this morning cant hold pivot we go to next demand zone, holds pivot we go to supply zone

• 247.24 pivot

• Hold → 249.51-250.43 supply

• Lose → 245.78-242.52 demand

🪙 $COIN inside a tight squeeze, holds pivot i like longs on her,

• 196.21 pivot

• Hold → 204.49-207.13 213.60-216.05 supply

• Lose → 194.01-190.96 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🏹 $HOOD at demand here in premarket, holds this demand could be a nice long, cant hold this we going to flush and release the energy downside

• Hold → 124.55-125.25 130.07 supply

• Lose → 120.08-119.50 116.60 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META in a tight squeeze, cant hold pivot we going to 711 cant hold that then 691 demand comes to play, holds pivot we go back to 740 ish

• 721.30 pivot

• Hold → 740.91 759.16 supply

• Lose → 711 691.52-686 demand

📰 Raymond James Adjusts PT on Meta Platforms to $860 From $650, Keeps Strong Buy Rating — MT Newswires

🔥🔥🔥 ⚡ $TSLA tried to breakout yesterday, came to supply and rejected and this morning watch pivot cant hold we going to 374 demand zone, holds pivot we go back to supply zone

• 377.22 pivot

• Hold → 384.01-389.30 supply

• Lose → 374.12-372.90 368.60 demand

📊 $VIX above 16 that means market can pull back, holds above 16 watch downside on the market, if 16 gives up market can push back upside

• 16 pivot

• Hold → 18.67 supply

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!VVukYbBI

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 21 days ago

MU sitting at the bottom of a $1097 → $1124 gap while the daily squeeze fires 👀🔥

$MU has my attention this morning.

She’s sitting right at the bottom of a pretty clean gap from $1097 → $1124.

And at the same time, the daily squeeze is starting to fire. 🔥

Pretty simple setup for me:

Hold/reclaim $1097 → I’m looking for that gap to start filling toward $1124.

Get through $1124 and then I’ll start looking at the higher levels.

Reject here? No reason to force it.

But gap + daily squeeze + key level all lining up definitely puts MU on my screen today. 👀

Let price confirm it.

Level to level. 🎯

$MU

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 22 days ago

Mondays Rip Turned Into Chop yesterday. Today $ES Is Coiled Between Pivot and Supply—Here Are the Levels I’m Watching 👀

Good morning traders, like i said will be chop day after a rip and happened like that yesterday

🔥🔥🔥 📊 $/ES side ways yesterday and flagging with a tight hourly and 2hour squeezes, holding between pivot and supply zone, breaks either direction will make a nice move

• 7824-7820 pivot

• Hold → 7838-7857 supply

• Lose → 7782 7766 demand

🍏 $AAPL made a ATH and pulled back to demand, holds pivot we go back to ATH and see if this time it can hold

• 338.55-339.57 pivot

• Hold → 344.57 supply

• Lose → 336.22 334.99-334.37 demand

🧠 $AMD holding its gains like a champion, holds pivot we push to yesterdays hod and then we see if we stay above it, cant hold pivot we can go to yesterday's lows cant hold it then we go to demand zone

• 615.99 pivot

• Hold → 624.52 supply

• Lose → 574-584.73 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📦 $AMZN holds the pivot means we holding all the emas, like this for short term swing if this pivot holds and breaks the supply zone

• 255.19 pivot

• Hold → 257.04-258 supply

• Lose → 251.93 demand

⚡ $AVGO inside a squeeze, holds pivot we have go to yesterdays hod, holds thats we going to supply zone

• 363.28 pivot

• Hold → 374.61-376.59 supply

• Lose → 357.61-350.06 demand

🪙 $COIN trading between big supply and demand, holds pivot this morning lets see we push to supply zone and break, cant hold pivot we going to demand zone

• 196.21 pivot

• Hold → 204.49-207.13 213.60-216.05 supply

• Lose → 194.01-190.96 demand

🔎 $GOOGL nice move in the morning and gave back , holds pivot this morning we go back to supply zone, cant hold pivot we going to demand zone

• 351.60 pivot

• Hold → 357.61-359.68 364.21 supply

• Lose → 349 347.25 344.68-342.98 demand

🔥🔥 💾 $MU breaking the daily squeeze, this morning beaks and holds pivot we have a gap to fill from 1097-1124.66 , lets see we fill gap this morning

• 1089.29 pivot

• Hold → 1097-1124.66 supply

• Lose → 1042-1036 demand

📰 Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Micron Technology to $1,300 From $1,150, Maintains Buy Rating — MT Newswires

🖥️ $NVDA holding well, holds pivot we go to supply zone, break and hold that we going to 232 and then we see

• 227.49 pivot

• Hold → 230-230.47.47 232.28 supply

• Lose → 221.60 218.18-214.80 demand

🔥🔥🔥 ⚡ $TSLA trading around the 200ema and 100sma, breaks this and holds pivot we going to supply zone, this can squeeze out if breaks out

• 377.22 pivot

• Hold → 384.01-389.30 supply

• Lose → 374.12-372.90 demand

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!K1yCDe2K

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 22 days ago

🚨 Friday Trading Watchlist: Triple Witching, Fed Waller, Oil Below $100 + Key Levels for TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD &amp; More 🔥

Good Morning traders ,

📅 WHAT TO WATCH — FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2026

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 ECON DATA

• 08:15 ET — Industrial Production MoM (consensus: +0.3%; prior: +0.2%) | Capacity Utilization (consensus: 76.4%; prior: 76.3%)

• 10:00 ET — Conference Board Leading Economic Index — August (prior: +0.2% in July to 99.5)

🏛️ FED WATCH

• 08:30 ET — Gov. Christopher Waller | "Economic Outlook" | Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview (Virtual)

bps hike and the path forward

🌍 MACRO / GEO

• Saudi Arabia expects to restore ~50% of war-damaged pipeline flow within days; U.S. crude dipped below $100/bbl on the news; gold trading ~$4,360/oz after +2% Thursday bounce; quiet US-Houthi understanding in Muscat reported, leaving Riyadh exposed

• Bank of Japan raised policy rate to 1.25% — highest in 31 years; Nikkei +1.38% to 65,024; MSCI Asia Pacific +0.8%; global risk rally extending into Friday on easing oil/inflation pressure

⚠️ TRADER NOTES

• Waller at 08:30 ET hits before Industrial Production at 08:15 ET — watch for a one-two macro punch in the pre-market window; any hawkish lean from Waller reinforcing the dot plot's second-hike signal could pressure rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs, housing)

• Oil sub-$100 is the key risk-sentiment lever today — energy names (XOM, CVX, OXY) face headwinds if Saudi supply restoration holds; broader market may extend Wednesday's relief rally if crude stays soft

• Potential triple witching today — if confirmed, expect elevated volume and intraday volatility especially into the 4:00 PM ET close; size positions accordingly and watch for erratic moves in index products and large-cap options into expiry

&gt;

🔥🔥🔥 📊 $/ES nice move we got in her came back to the 7680 demand and the mean yesterday and held this morning above pivot and at supply zone, key supply to break and hold

• 7705 pivot

• Hold → 7724-7739 7766 supply

• Lose → 7680 7657-5632 7618 demand

🍏 $AAPL breaking the squeeze holds pivot and yesterdays hod we going to 339.59 then 344.57 ATH

• 336.22 pivot

• Hold → 339.57 344.57 supply

• Lose → 334.99-334.37 330.81-329.59 demand

🐋 $3.4M CALL flow yesterday · $335C exp 9/18

🎯 10 unusual flows yesterday

📈 79% bullish premium flow

🧠 $AMD what a champion she is, she has the daily squeeze firing, can she continue this and breaks this 561.47-584.73 supply zone and make new ATH, comes to 530 demand zone will be long again

• 546.44 pivot

• Hold → 561.47-584.73 supply

• Lose → 530.13-256 demand

🐋 $8.6M PUT flow yesterday · $542.5P exp 9/18

⚡ 5 golden sweeps yesterday

🎯 94 unusual flows yesterday

📈 73% bullish premium flow

📦 $AMZN is looking good for short term, i like this name how we back above the 250 demand zone, holds pivot can try some SHORT TERM SWINGS here

• 251.93 pivot

• Hold → 255.19-257.04 supply

• Lose → 250-249.51 demand

🐋 $3.8M PUT flow yesterday · $250P exp 9/18

⚡ 1 golden sweep yesterday

🎯 28 unusual flows yesterday

📈 65% bullish premium flow

🪙 $COIN got a pull back this week i like short term swings on this name, holds pivot i like it for upside

• 179.30 pivot

• Hold → 184.93 187.39 supply

• Lose → 175.55-174.44 demand

🐋 $5.8M PUT flow yesterday · $167.5P exp 9/18

🎯 20 unusual flows yesterday

📉 88% bearish premium flow

🔥🔥🔥 🔎 $GOOGL breaking out this morning, mentioned 2 days back that GOOGL at sexy demand and boom from 344 to 356 this morning have a 357-359 supply zone this morning to see break or reject there

• 351.60 pivot

• Hold → 357.61-359.68 supply

• Lose → 349 347 344-342 demand

🐋 $1.9M CALL flow yesterday · $350C exp 9/18

⚡ 2 golden sweeps yesterday

🎯 21 unusual flows yesterday

📈 78% bullish premium flow

🔥🔥🔥 🏹 $HOOD held the 102 demand nicely and holds pivot i like short term swing on this to 120 ish

• 112.50 pivot

• Hold → 116.60 119.50-120.88 supply

• Lose → 111.02-107.46 demand

🌊 $10.7M CALL flow yesterday · $100P exp 10/16

🎯 38 unusual flows yesterday

📈 80% bullish premium flow

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META at supply zone this morning lets see we break this, she has been holding like a champion

• 664.24 pivot

• Hold → 686-691 721 supply

• Lose → 638.53-624.80 619.42-609.74 demand

🐋 $9.3M CALL flow yesterday · $700C exp 9/18

🎯 15 unusual flows yesterday

🖥️ $NVDA held demand nicely, watching pivot this morning breaks and holds we go to next supply level,

• 221.60 pivot

• Hold → 224.76 227-230.47 supply

• Lose → 218.18-214.80 demand

🐋 $6.0M PUT flow yesterday · $217.5P exp 9/18

🎯 186 unusual flows yesterday

📈 70% bullish premium flow

🔥🔥🔥 🔭 $PLTR inside a tight squeeze breaks pivot and holds we go to supply zone , need to clear yesterdays hod 1st and hold then supply zone

• 176.59 pivot

• Hold → 180.18-182.44 supply

• Lose → 169.42-172.41 demand

🐋 $1.4M CALL flow yesterday · $180C exp 9/18

⚡ 1 golden sweep yesterday

🎯 35 unusual flows yesterday

📈 75% bullish premium flow

🔥🔥🔥 ⚡ $TSLA gave us a nice move yesterday to supply zone came back to demand held nicely, this morning pivot holds i like her upside, would buy time for it work, once she breakout the squeeze she will be big

• 368.60 pivot

• Hold → 372.90-377.22 384.04 supply

• Lose → 364-363 358 demand

🐋 $9.3M PUT flow yesterday · $360P exp 9/18

⚡ 1 golden sweep yesterday

🎯 111 unusual flows yesterday

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!yHhW0UyP

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 27 days ago

I’ve been posting about AMD all week — today the 550C went $2 → $8 at my $546.44 target 🔥

If you’ve been following my $AMD posts this week, you already know this one has been one of my favorite names to trade.

I’ve been mapping the levels before the moves, and AMD just keeps giving setups. 🎯

Earlier this week:

AMD 525C @ $3.30 → I locked at $8.00

Those contracts eventually traded around $26.00 🤯

Did I catch the whole thing? Nope.

Didn’t need to.

Then I posted about $SMH sitting at key demand and said I was watching the semiconductor names closely if that demand held.

Today AMD gave another one.

550C @ $2.00

Started scaling:

$2.00 → $2.85 → $3.75 → $8.00 🔥

I went all out at $8.00 as AMD hit my $546.44 target.

That’s a 300% move on the contracts.

They later traded around $10 — and again, I don’t care.

My target was hit. I got paid.

That's the part of trading I think people underestimate.

You don't need the exact bottom.
You don't need the exact top.
You don't need to catch every dollar.

I want the setup before the move, confirmation at my levels, defined risk, and then I pay myself at my targets.

Charts before the move.
Entries in real time.
Profits at the levels.

$AMD has been an absolute ATM this week. 😂💰

Level to level. 🎯

$AMD $SMH

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 28 days ago

FOMC stopped me out. I came back after futures reopened and caught 94 points on MES 🔥

FOMC was wild yesterday 😂

$ES lost my 7618.50 level after the decision. I tried the long, moved my stop to breakeven and got stopped.

Then ES flushed all the way to 7575 and recovered above 7618

When futures reopened at 6PM, I got another setup and went LONG $MES at 7626.

Why MES instead of ES?

MES = $5/point.
ES = $50/point.

For an overnight swing, I wanted smaller size so I could give the trade room to breathe without taking unnecessary risk.

Then the levels started doing their job:

7626 entry → 7657 target hit → reclaim held → kept riding

This morning:

7626 → 7720 = 94 points 🔥

Locked half at 7720 and left runners.

But the part I actually like about this trade isn't the 94 points.

I was WRONG first.

Took the stop. Accepted it. Waited for the next setup. Then got back in when price gave me a reason.

You don't have to catch the bottom.

You don't have to be right on the first trade.

You just have to manage risk well enough to still be there when the good setup comes.

If I'm wrong, I cut.
If the level confirms, I execute.
Level to level. 🎯

$ES $MES

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 28 days ago

Yesterday I called TSLA a “3-piece puzzle” — today the 370C went $4.00 → $10.00 🧩🔥

Yesterday I posted that $TSLA was starting to look like a 3-piece puzzle 🧩

$352-$355 demand + Daily 21 EMA + tight squeeze.

The pieces were lining up.

I grabbed the 370C for next week, took some profit before FOMC, and kept some runners.

Then FOMC did what FOMC does 😂

TSLA got slammed right back into the $352-$355 demand zone.

Demand HELD again this morning.

Then the squeeze released. 💥

370C: $4.00 → $10.00 🔥

Locked most of the position and now the runners are in FORREST GUMP MODE 😂🏃

TSLA pushed straight into the next level I had mapped at $372.90 supply.

Know your levels.
Give the trade time.
Take profits along the way.
Let the runners run.

Yesterday we mapped the puzzle.

Today the pieces came together. 🧩🎯

If this, then that. Level to level.

$TSLA

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 28 days ago

Yesterday I called TSLA a “3-piece puzzle” — today the 370C went $4.00 → $10.00 🧩🔥

Yesterday I posted that $TSLA was starting to look like a 3-piece puzzle 🧩

$352-$355 demand + Daily 21 EMA + tight squeeze.

The pieces were lining up.

I grabbed the 370C for next week, took some profit before FOMC, and kept some runners.

Then FOMC did what FOMC does 😂

TSLA got slammed right back into the $352-$355 demand zone.

Demand HELD again this morning.

Then the squeeze released. 💥

370C: $4.00 → $10.00 🔥

Locked most of the position and now the runners are in FORREST GUMP MODE 😂🏃

TSLA pushed straight into the next level I had mapped at $372.90 supply.

Know your levels.
Give the trade time.
Take profits along the way.
Let the runners run.

Yesterday we mapped the puzzle.

Today the pieces came together. 🧩🎯

If this, then that. Level to level.

$TSLA

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 28 days ago

🚨 Fed Shocks Markets With First Rate Hike Since 2023 and then Rips— Key Levels for $ES, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AMD, $META &amp; More Today 🔥

Good morning traders,

📅 WHAT TO WATCH — THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2026

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 ECON DATA

• 8:30 AM ET — Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 207K, prev: 206K)

🏛️ FED WATCH

• FOMC voted yesterday (Sept 16) to hike rates +25bps to 3.75%–4.00%, first hike since 2023

• Chair Warsh held post-meeting press conference; Treasuries pared losses and equity futures climbed on his remarks

🌍 MACRO / GEO

• Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike since 2023 yesterday, raising the fed funds rate 25bps to 3.75%–4.00%; elevated energy prices and steady labor market cited as key drivers

• Pre-market futures pointing higher heading into today's open: S&P Futures +0.38% at 7,684.75, Nasdaq Futures +0.62% at 29,429, Dow Futures +0.32% at 52,693; VIX at 16.78 (-2.44%)

• Gold surging to $4,387.50 (+1.26%) while Crude Oil (Oct 26) sliding to $103.63 (-2.08%), a notable divergence worth monitoring given the Fed's inflation commentary

⚠️ TRADER NOTES

• FOMC blackout lifts at midnight tonight — expect a wave of Fed speak beginning Friday; any hawkish signals from dot plot dissenters could reprice rate expectations for the Oct 28 meeting and pressure rate-sensitive sectors into the weekend

&gt;

.

🔥🔥🔥 📊 $/ES had a drop and recovered everything with the FOMC , i longed MES yesterday right when market opened at 6 pm est, this morning lets see pivot holds for upside cant hold we go back to demand

• 7680 pivot

• Hold → 7705 7724-7739 7766 supply

• Lose → 7657-7632 7618 7598 demand

🍏 $AAPL has a tight squeeze, breaks the supply zone we going to 344.

• Hold → 334.37-334.99 336.22 supply

• Lose → 330.81-329.59 327.30 322.37 demand

🔥 🧠 $AMD holding above the pivot breaks supply zone we go to 546

• 514.67 pivot

• Hold → 526.79-530.13 546.44 supply

• Lose → 502-495 demand

📦 $AMZN coming to supply zone, breaks supply zone we go to 251.93 then 255. supply zone,

• 247.24 pivot

• Hold → 249-250.43 251.93 255.19 supply

• Lose → 245.78-242.52 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🤖 $CRWV tried to buy some options for next week, got stopped out with FOMC and this morning gapping up, breaks supply zone we going to squeeze

• 88.62 pivot

• Hold → 89.63-91.81 94.26 supply

• Lose → 83.17 79.03 demand

🔎 $GOOGL mentioned she came to key demand yesterday and held, this morning gapping up. breaks and holds pivot we going to 349 then 351 ish

• 347.25 pivot

• Hold → 349 351.60 supply

• Lose → 342-344.68 338.57 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META has been strong , holding like a champ watching this supply zone break and hold

• 664.24 pivot

• Hold → 686-691 supply

• Lose → 638.53-624.80 619.42-609.74 demand

🖥️ $NVDA trading around the mean, breaks this supply zone, we can squeeze it out to 221.60

• 212.90 pivot

• Hold → 214.80-218.18 221.60 supply

• Lose → 208.78 204.33-202.75 demand

🔥🔥🔥 ⚡ $TSLA holding well. we bought some call for next week, this morning lets see we break this supply zone in the morning

• 358.80 pivot

• Hold → 363.24-364.02 368.60 372.90-377.22 supply

• Lose → 355.75-351.26 342.11 demand

📊 $VIX yesterday came to the 18.67 and rejected, and right now we at 16 , gives up 16 and goes lower market will go up, bounces and goes to 18.67 market will pull back

• 16 pivot

• Lose → 18.67 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🔥 $INTC is looking nice, breaks pivot we going to supply zone

• 102.88 pivot

• Hold → 105.97-107.57 supply

• Lose → 100.45 demand

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!XQ2SJxuS

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 28 days ago

AI Selloff Shocks Markets Ahead of the Fed and AI — Key Levels Traders Can’t Ignore Today 🚨

Good Morning traders,

📅 WHAT TO WATCH — MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2026

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 ECON DATA

• 11:30 ET — Treasury Auctions $92B in 13-Week Bills

• 11:30 ET — Treasury Auctions $79B in 26-Week Bills

🏛️ FED WATCH

• FOMC meeting begins TOMORROW (Sep 15–16); rate decision Wednesday Sep 16 at 14:00 ET; Chair Warsh press conference 14:30 ET

• Markets pricing ~86–90% probability of a 25 bps hike; current target rate: 3.50%–3.75%

🌍 MACRO / GEO

• 🤖 AI SELLOFF: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called Saturday for AI companies to coordinate a development slowdown; Sam Altman agreed; OpenAI abandoned its 2026 IPO plan — Nasdaq 100 futures down ~1%, S&P 500 futures down ~0.6%; semis hit hard globally (ASML -4–5%, Infineon -6.5%, AIXTRON -8%, Soitec -12%)

⚠️ TRADER NOTES

• SEMIS & AI NAMES UNDER PRESSURE AT OPEN: The Amodei/Altman "pace the frontier" call is a sentiment shock — watch SOX index, NVDA, AMD, and AI-infrastructure names for continued selling; gap-down opens likely, assess whether dip-buyers show up by 10:30 ET before committing

• OIL + FED = STAGFLATION TRADE IN PLAY: Brent near $112 plus a near-certain 25 bps hike Wednesday is a stagflationary setup — energy names (XOM, CVX, OXY) may catch a bid while rate-sensitive growth and housing stocks (see LEN reporting Wed) face headwinds; watch TLT and the 2-year yield for rate expectations repricing

• FOMC BLACKOUT = NO RELIEF VALVE TODAY: With the Fed dark until Wednesday's 14:00 ET decision, there is no Fed communication to stabilize markets — any volatility from AI/oil headlines is uncontained today; manage position sizing accordingly and watch VIX for spike signals

📊 $/ES pulling back with the AI news, breaks and holds pivot we go back to 7705 and supply zone, rejects pivot we go back to 7657-7632 demand zone

• 7680 pivot

• Hold → 7705 7724-7739 7766 supply

• Lose → 7657-7632 7618 7598 demand

🍏 $AAPL nice demand here holds this demand its a a nice long here

• Hold → 334.37-334.99 336.22 supply

• Lose → 330.81-329.59 327.30 322.37 demand

📰 Phillip Securities Adjusts Price Target on Apple to $300 From $290, Keeps Reduce Rating — MT Newswires

🧠 $AMD gapping down this morning, holds pivot we push back to 495-502 supply zone, cant hold pivot we go to 478

• 486.57 pivot

• Hold → 491.12 495.35-502.36 514.67 supply

• Lose → 478.83 463-455 demand

📦 $AMZN came to the mean on Friday and this morning we gapping down, holds pivot we can push back to supply zone, cant hold pivot we go back to demand zone

• 251.93 pivot

• Hold → 255.19-257.04 258 supply

• Lose → 250.43-249.51 demand

⚡ $AVGO pulling back to bottom demand cant hold the 350 we going to 342.33

• Hold → 374.61-376.59 supply

• Lose → 350.06-357.61 342.33 demand

🪙 $COIN at key demand and the mean, holds this demand we go to pivot breaks and holds pivot we go to supply zones

• 179.30 pivot

• Hold → 187.39 supply

• Lose → 175.55-174.44 171.41-167.92 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🛡️ $CRWD strong this morning breaks and holds pivot we go to supply zone, rejects pivot we go back to 213.70 cant hold then 204 comes to play

• 219.18 pivot

• Hold → 227.50-229.08 supply

• Lose → 213.70 204.14 demand

🔎 $GOOGL holding nicely this morning, holds pivot we go to supply zone and see we breakout out

• 338.57 pivot

• Hold → 342.98-344.68 347.25 supply

• Lose → 332.82 327.74 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🏹 $HOOD coming back to key level and held, this morning we hold pivot we go to 116.60 and then we see we go higher, cant hold pivot we go to 111.02 cant hold that we have a gap to fill downside

• 112.50 pivot

• Hold → 116.60 119.50-120.88 supply

• Lose → 111.02-107.46 demand

🔥🔥🔥 📱 $META holding very well this morning, breaks 664 and holds this can fly out, cant hold 638.56 have a gap to fill downside

• Hold → 664.24 686-691 supply

• Lose → 638.53-624.80 619.42-609.74 demand

🔥🔥🔥 🖥️ $MSFT inside a tight squeeze holding demand well and the mean, breaks and holds pivot we can squeeze it out

• 498.97 pivot

• Hold → 505.18 512 supply

• Lose → 492-489 demand

🖥️ $NVDA pulling back with the AI news, holds pivot we push back to supply zone, cant hold pivot we going to 208 then 204-202 demand zone

• 212.90 pivot

• Hold → 214.80-218.18 supply

• Lose → 208.78 204.33-202.75 demand

🔥🔥🔥 ⚡ $TSLA inside a tight squeeze, holds pivot we go to supply zone and see we break out or reject, cant hold pivot we go t demand zone,

• 358.80 pivot

• Hold → 363.24-364.02 supply

• Lose → 355.75-351.26 demand

📊 TOS Grid → http://tos.mx/!12RTs82O

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 1 month ago
▲ 13 r/TradeWithLevels+1 crossposts

AMD daily squeeze is starting to fire — $530 is my trigger for a run at ATH 👀🔥

$AMD has become one of my FAVORITE names to trade options lately. 👀

The range she gives + how cleanly she respects my levels has been beautiful.

But this is what really has my attention now...

The DAILY squeeze is starting to fire. 🔥

I always look at these squeezes like a loaded slingshot. 🏹

The tighter that thing gets pulled back, the more energy gets built up. Once it finally releases, the move can get aggressive FAST.

And look at the last daily squeeze on the chart...

When that one released, AMD went on an absolute monster run.

Now we're setting up again.

For me, $530 is the trigger. 🎯

Break + HOLD $530 → I'm looking for continuation toward the $584 ATH.

I'm not front-running it. I want AMD to prove she can get through $530 and hold before I start looking for the bigger move.

If $530 rejects, no problem. I'll wait for the next setup rather than chase it into resistance.

Simple roadmap:

Break + hold $530 → $584 ATH

That slingshot looks loaded. 🏹🔥

IF this, THEN that. Level to level.

$AMD

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 1 month ago

ARM keeps getting rejected at $265-$267 — break + hold and I’m watching $274.80 → $287-$290 👀

$ARM is sitting at a spot I really like heading into next week. 👀

Friday she pulled back into the mean / 21 EMA on Daily and defended it nicely.

Now the real test is directly above us.

That $265-$267 area has rejected ARM multiple times on this chart. Every time she gets up there, sellers have shown up.

So I'm not front-running the breakout.

I want ARM to PROVE IT. 🎯

Break + hold $265-$267 → I'm looking for $274.80.

Clear $274.80 and hold → now there's room toward the bigger $287-$290 supply zone.

On the other side, if ARM rejects $265-$267 again and loses the $251-$255 demand area, I'm not interested in forcing longs. I'd start watching the lower $237-$241 zone.

My map:

Above $265-$267 → $274.80
Clear $274.80 → $287-$290
Lose $251-$255 → $237-$241

No prediction. Let the levels confirm it.

IF this, THEN that. Level to level. 🫡🎯

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 1 month ago

TSLA is getting TIGHT — higher lows + hourly squeeze. $368.60 is the short term trigger 👀

$TSLA is getting TIGHT heading into next week. 👀

Hourly is squeezing while continuing to put in higher lows, and now I’ve got a pretty simple roadmap.

Hold $364 demand + break/hold $368.60 → I’m looking toward the $372.90-$377.22 supply zone. 🎯

If TSLA can clear that supply and actually HOLD it, then $384-$389 comes into play.

And if this thing really gets moving, $414 is sitting on my bigger-picture radar.

Other side is simple too.

If $364 fails, I'm watching $358.80, followed by that bigger $351-$355 demand zone.

But especially in this market, trading options isn't just about being right on direction.

Know your targets. Take profits at your levels. Keep runners if you want.

Because these pullbacks have been VIOLENT 😂

One minute you're nicely green, next minute you're staring at a flat or red contract wondering WTF happened.

My map:

Above $368.60 → $372.90-$377.22
Clear supply → $384-$389
Lose $364 → $358.80 → $351-$355 demand

IF this, THEN that. Level to level. Pay yourself along the way. 🫡🎯

$TSLA

u/ALPHAtradingpro — 1 month ago