u/ApprehensivePizza471

I’ve been reading about the rare-earth supply chain and realized I had misunderstood where the bottleneck actually is.

My assumption was that the main issue was simply that China has a lot of rare-earth deposits. It seems more complicated than that.

The interesting part is the processing. Mining the ore is only the first step; separating individual rare-earth elements and producing material suitable for magnets requires specialized chemical processing, significant infrastructure, and a way of dealing with the associated waste streams.

That seems to explain some of the history.

The US had a major rare-earth mine at Mountain Pass, and GM was involved in developing the NdFeB magnet industry through Magnequench. The Magnequench business was sold in the 1990s, while much of the associated manufacturing capacity eventually moved to China.

Over the following decades China developed a very large processing and magnet-manufacturing ecosystem. Other countries continued to have rare-earth resources, but having ore in the ground wasn't enough to recreate the whole supply chain.

The 2010 export restrictions were what initially got me interested in this. Prices for some of the less common elements rose dramatically, and there was a big push afterward to develop alternative supply.

But rebuilding the industry turned out to be harder than simply reopening mines. The Mountain Pass/Molycorp experience is a pretty good example: substantial investment went into restarting production, but the economics became difficult when prices subsequently fell.

So I'm wondering about the current situation.

There are now projects in the US, Australia and elsewhere aimed at developing mining, separation and magnet production outside China. Governments are also using various forms of funding, contracts and price support to try to make those projects financeable.

For anyone here who actually works in rare-earth processing, metallurgy, mining or magnet manufacturing:

How difficult is it realistically to build competitive separation capacity from scratch?

Is the chemistry/process know-how the main obstacle, or are permitting, waste handling, financing and securing long-term customers bigger problems?

And for those familiar with government price guarantees: can they actually make a non-Chinese supply chain viable, or does the industry ultimately need to compete without that kind of support?

I'm much more interested in the practical side of this than the geopolitical argument, so I'd especially appreciate input from people who have worked with the processes themselves.

I’ve been reading about the rare-earth supply chain and realized I had misunderstood where the bottleneck actually is.

My assumption was that the main issue was simply that China has a lot of rare-earth deposits. It seems more complicated than that.

The interesting part is the processing. Mining the ore is only the first step; separating individual rare-earth elements and producing material suitable for magnets requires specialized chemical processing, significant infrastructure, and a way of dealing with the associated waste streams.

That seems to explain some of the history.

The US had a major rare-earth mine at Mountain Pass, and GM was involved in developing the NdFeB magnet industry through Magnequench. The Magnequench business was sold in the 1990s, while much of the associated manufacturing capacity eventually moved to China.

Over the following decades China developed a very large processing and magnet-manufacturing ecosystem. Other countries continued to have rare-earth resources, but having ore in the ground wasn't enough to recreate the whole supply chain.

The 2010 export restrictions were what initially got me interested in this. Prices for some of the less common elements rose dramatically, and there was a big push afterward to develop alternative supply.

But rebuilding the industry turned out to be harder than simply reopening mines. The Mountain Pass/Molycorp experience is a pretty good example: substantial investment went into restarting production, but the economics became difficult when prices subsequently fell.

So I'm wondering about the current situation.

There are now projects in the US, Australia and elsewhere aimed at developing mining, separation and magnet production outside China. Governments are also using various forms of funding, contracts and price support to try to make those projects financeable.

For anyone here who actually works in rare-earth processing, metallurgy, mining or magnet manufacturing:

How difficult is it realistically to build competitive separation capacity from scratch?

Is the chemistry/process know-how the main obstacle, or are permitting, waste handling, financing and securing long-term customers bigger problems?

And for those familiar with government price guarantees: can they actually make a non-Chinese supply chain viable, or does the industry ultimately need to compete without that kind of support?

I'm much more interested in the practical side of this than the geopolitical argument, so I'd especially appreciate input from people who have worked with the processes themselves.

I’ve been reading about the rare-earth supply chain and realized I had misunderstood where the bottleneck actually is.

My assumption was that the main issue was simply that China has a lot of rare-earth deposits. It seems more complicated than that.

The interesting part is the processing. Mining the ore is only the first step; separating individual rare-earth elements and producing material suitable for magnets requires specialized chemical processing, significant infrastructure, and a way of dealing with the associated waste streams.

That seems to explain some of the history.

The US had a major rare-earth mine at Mountain Pass, and GM was involved in developing the NdFeB magnet industry through Magnequench. The Magnequench business was sold in the 1990s, while much of the associated manufacturing capacity eventually moved to China.

Over the following decades China developed a very large processing and magnet-manufacturing ecosystem. Other countries continued to have rare-earth resources, but having ore in the ground wasn't enough to recreate the whole supply chain.

The 2010 export restrictions were what initially got me interested in this. Prices for some of the less common elements rose dramatically, and there was a big push afterward to develop alternative supply.

But rebuilding the industry turned out to be harder than simply reopening mines. The Mountain Pass/Molycorp experience is a pretty good example: substantial investment went into restarting production, but the economics became difficult when prices subsequently fell.

So I'm wondering about the current situation.

There are now projects in the US, Australia and elsewhere aimed at developing mining, separation and magnet production outside China. Governments are also using various forms of funding, contracts and price support to try to make those projects financeable.

For anyone here who actually works in rare-earth processing, metallurgy, mining or magnet manufacturing:

How difficult is it realistically to build competitive separation capacity from scratch?

Is the chemistry/process know-how the main obstacle, or are permitting, waste handling, financing and securing long-term customers bigger problems?

And for those familiar with government price guarantees: can they actually make a non-Chinese supply chain viable, or does the industry ultimately need to compete without that kind of support?

I'm much more interested in the practical side of this than the geopolitical argument, so I'd especially appreciate input from people who have worked with the processes themselves.

I went down a rabbit hole on rare earths and pulled the actual figures (USGS, IEA, Adamas, European Commission). The history is stranger than the headlines:

- The neodymium magnet was invented in ~1982 by a General Motors team and a Japanese team almost simultaneously. GM built the magnet business (Magnequench) in Indiana.

- In 1995 GM sold it to a Chinese-led consortium for about $70M. When the jobs commitment expired, the equipment and know-how moved to China.

- China's share of world production went from roughly 21% (1985) to 60% (1995). Mountain Pass, the California mine that once supplied most of the planet, shut in 2002.

- The real moat was never the mining. It is separation: solvent extraction, stage after stage, plus thorium (radioactive) handling. That is what takes a decade and billions to build, and it is why other countries dug ore and still shipped it to China.

- Today: ~91% of refining and ~94% of finished magnets are Chinese. For the heavy elements (dysprosium, terbium) it is close to total.

- The bit that broke my brain: the entire global rare-earth trade is only about $10-15B a year, smaller than one big tech company's quarterly profit, yet it sits underneath trillions of dollars of cars, weapons, wind turbines and electronics. Enormous leverage per dollar.

- 2010 was the warning: China halted exports to Japan for ~2 months, dysprosium spiked ~5x to ~$1,400/kg. The US/EU/Japan won at the WTO in 2014 and it barely mattered, because quotas were never the weapon: refining was. Molycorp raised ~$400M to reopen Mountain Pass, spent $1B+ on acquisitions, and went bankrupt in 2015 owing ~$1.5B when prices fell. The mine later sold for ~$20M.

Where it stands now: Australia (Lynas) is the only major refiner outside China, Japan is trialling rare earths from deep-sea mud, a big share of China's heavy REE is actually mined in Myanmar, the EU passed hard 2030 targets in 2024, and the Pentagon took a 15% stake plus a price floor in Mountain Pass's owner. But analysts still expect ~90% dependence on China for heavy REE and magnets in 2030.

Genuinely curious what people who work in mining/processing think: is Western separation capacity actually buildable this decade, or is the permitting + chemistry + capital wall too high? And does the price floor model (government guaranteeing a floor so China can't crash the market) actually work?

I mean places where people say stuff like:

“My sales process is broken and it's costing me $50k/month.”

“I need someone to automate this annoying business workflow.”

“I have a bottleneck and no clue how to solve it.”

Basically, a marketplace of business pain points.

Hello experienced Reddit citizens,

I have officially entered the Reddit universe and I’m trying to avoid the classic newbie mistakes ,like walking into a subreddit with the confidence of a professor and the knowledge of a confused pigeon.

I understand the basics: read , don’t be annoying, contribute something useful, and don’t treat karma like a video game high score (even though my brain absolutely wants to).

My questions:

What is one Reddit habit you wish you learned on day one?

What’s the biggest “new Redditor mistake” you see people make??

I’m here to learn, participate, and hopefully become the kind of Redditor people don’t immediately think “ah, another newbie.”

Thanks in advance for your wisdom. I promise to read the room before yelling “hello fellow humans” in every subreddit.

We need to change the way we behave with non nameplate police

If even one police officer without a nameplate hits someone then beat , record his face