
New Fort Bend County Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton by 18 Points
A new poll suggests Fort Bend County voters are returning in droves to the Democratic Party this year as state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 18 percentage points in the race for U.S. Senate and other Republicans trailing significantly in the state’s most diverse county.
The survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted between September 9 and October 2 by pollsters Mark Jones and Michael Adams for the Barbara Jordan School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University (TSU) and carries a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
Over half of respondents, 56 percent, said they would vote for Talarico; 38 percent for Paxton; 2 percent for Libertarian Ted Brown; and just 4 percent were undecided. More voters had a favorable view of Talarico, giving him a net favorability rating of +15, while most viewed Paxton unfavorably for a net rating of −29.
Gov. Greg Abbott also trailed his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), among Fort Bend County voters by 11 percentage points, with just 3 percent unsure.
State Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Austin) led Republican candidate Bo French in the race for Texas Railroad Commission by 15 percentage points, while 3 percent planned to vote for Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 12 percent were unsure.
In the election for county judge of Fort Bend County, Daniel Wong outperformed other Republicans in the poll, but trailed the Democratic nominee, Commissioner Dexter McCoy (D-Pct. 4), by 9 points. Wong is serving as the appointed interim county judge to replace KP George, who was convicted on felony money laundering charges earlier this year.
The poll reflects a swing back to Democrats after Republican gains in 2024, when Kamala Harris narrowly won Fort Bend County with just 49.33 percent and President Donald Trump took 47.75 percent.
Jones told The Texan that the county has been trending blue for some time, although 2022 and 2024 were very good years for Republicans. Although Trump performed well in 2024, that same year, Democrat Colin Allred finished 8 percentage points ahead of Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the county; Trump overperformed compared to many other Republican candidates across Texas in 2024.
Jones also noted that the Fort Bend County results are an indicator of statewide trends.
“If you sort of parse out the numbers, that would translate into a statewide election where Paxton is down by two or three and Abbott is up by three or four, if the trend is similar elsewhere,” said Jones.
Fort Bend County is one of the most racially diverse in the United States and has a large Asian population, of which about 45 percent are South Asian, including Indians and Pakistanis. The demographic breakdown of the TSU poll participants is 43 percent white, 24 percent black, 15 percent Latino, and 14 percent Asian American.
Jones noted that while French led among white and Latino voters, he trailed Rosenthal significantly among black and Asian voters by 73 points and 23 points, respectively.
French recently sparked a national firestorm after he posted controversial comments about a pictureof the University of Texas (UT) at Austin student section during a football game against Ohio State University, in which most of the students in the foreground appeared to be of South Asian descent.
The TSU poll found that 89 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Rosenthal while only 77 percent of Republicans intend to vote for French. Eighty-eight percent of Paxton voters and 84 percent of Abbott voters plan to vote for French.
But Jones noted that even though French’s post made national news, few know about the controversy, and 49 percent of respondents said they did not know enough about French to have an opinion.
“The advantage French has is a lot of people don't know who he is. They're just voting based on partisanship,” said Jones. “That is opposed to the problem Paxton has which is that everybody knows about him.”
Just 3 percent of those polled said they did not know enough about Paxton and Talarico to have an opinion.
“Rosenthal doesn’t have enough money to make sure the electorate know about French’s posts, including a third of the group that was targeted in French’s tweet,” said Jones.
According to campaign finance reports published this week, Rosenthal outraised French for the first time in this election cycle and reported about $488,000 in new donations, while French raised $439,000. French, however, still maintains about $223,000 in cash on hand to Rosenthal’s $64,000.
Abbott maintained his fundraising lead over Hinojosa in the most recent period, reporting $20 million raised in the last quarter to Hinojosa’s $13 million.