The partial close math most ICT traders skip before their prop firm challenge
Most of us learn the partial close at 1.5R from ICT content but nobody actually runs the numbers on when it beats a simple 2R hold vs when it doesn't.
Three outcomes exist (not two):
- Price hits SL before 1.5R → full loss, -1R
- Price hits 1.5R (you book half, move SL to BE) → price reverses → +0.75R. You still made money.
- Price hits 1.5R then continues to 2R → +1.75R
The crossover point: partial close only outperforms simple 2R when your P2 (% of 1.5R-hitting trades that continue to 2R) is below ~87.5%. Above that, you're better off not closing early.
For a 40% win rate prop firm challenge, at P2=70% the partial close adds roughly 0.3R per trade to expectancy. At P2=90% you're leaving money on the table.
Worth running your own numbers before you start the challenge, not after.