▲ 40 r/PredictionMarkets+1 crossposts

Won over 60k on kalshi but I am done with this pyramid scheme and why you should be too

Like the title said. During the world cup made some great money. I believe the world cup gave this platform such high new userbase and did what it was meant to do which was make people stick around post world cup. The problem? Once something begins to become almost "cultural" it begins to go down the drain.

Kalshi used to gives you what I call "Corner" meaning it gave you advantages like being able to cash out for almost close to your final payout as long as the game was almost over and you were up. Now? I see people locked into a bet when one soccer team is up 1-0 and the game has five minutes left. When people raise concerns you find kalshi defense soldiers come to make excuses. Saying that no one is buying his position or there is lack of volume. IF the game has a starting of a quarter of a million I don't believe no one wants to buy a winning position with 5-3 minutes left.

There is a belief that there is "no house" with kalshi. However the reality is class actions that they are fighting exposes that kalshi is house and do buy up positions themselves. Something most people already knew that kalshi used bots to achieve this malpractice. You will get the crumbs when trying to hedge your bets while kalshi bots get first dips on the best prices.

Then you have not displaying accurate live information while claiming to do so. This has costs people so much money.

My very last point. Trump jr is an advisor for these prediction apps. Heavily involved. I am not anti trump or a political opposition. However, when a family who has stolen money from their proclaimed "cancer charity fund" is in government and also behind the scenes in these prediction market one can only know it's only a matter of time until the casino begins to show itself as a circus.

Just stop now. They want you to win at the start and believe it's fair and that the kalshi doesn't make money whether you win or lose. They want you to win so you continue to use and they want you to lose so you make money back. In the very end once it has became part of your daily routine they will only want you to lose as they pull every corner they used to once give you to their own advantage instead of yours.

These aps should not prosper. They are what society claims to hate of only making the rich richer. They do not truly block out insiders from trading like they claim to do. As there are loopholes on what defines an insider.

reddit.com
u/AccurateIntuition — 9 days ago

Don’t fall for it

Yes, spoofing is one possible explanation, but it cannot be confirmed from the screenshots alone.
Spoofing typically works like this:
A trader places a very large buy or sell order (for example, 1,000,000 shares at 61¢).
Other traders see the large order and think there is strong buying or selling pressure.
They adjust their own prices or rush to trade.
Before the large order is executed, the trader cancels it.
The spoofer profits from the price movement they induced.
This can create the impression of a “wall” that repeatedly appears and disappears.
However, there are legitimate reasons for the same behavior:
The order was genuinely canceled.
It was partially or fully filled.
The trader moved it to another price.
An automated market-making algorithm updated its quotes.
The key sign that raises suspicion is repetition. If you observe the same large order appearing, disappearing, and reappearing over and over without executing, that’s more consistent with what traders call spoofing behavior. Even then, only the platform’s detailed trading records can determine whether it was actual spoofing or normal order management.
Copied from CHATGPT

u/CandidateMediocre802 — 1 month ago
▲ 5 r/Polymarket_Traders+2 crossposts

Polymarket stole my money/support is useless

I placed a bet today and when I tried to cash out, it said balance is under review. I lost $300 because I could not cash out. This has happened several times and I have lost hundreds, if not thousands because I cannot get ahold of support. I’ve had a previous support ticket that is still in progress for over a month. I’ve sent emails with no response and follow up comments in the existing support chat. This is legitimately the worst betting app. I have never had this experience with any other app. I need a refund for all the money you guys stole from me. Ticket number is #112247015

Username is jumpybobcat2419 if anyone from the team sees this

reddit.com
u/CandidateMediocre802 — 27 days ago
▲ 61 r/polyman+2 crossposts

He has $910K in lifetime Polymarket profits. He just bet $4.37M against Argentina winning the World Cup.

biggest world cup position on polymarket right now is $4.37M against argentina winning the tournament. one wallet: newdogbeginning, a lifetime-profitable account with $910K realized PnL. entered at 88.6c per share. argentina has since firmed, leaving the position about $390K underwater.

what makes it interesting is the split on that same market when you filter to only profitable wallets:

YES (argentina wins): 2,942 profitable wallets, $2.35M total exposure.
NO (argentina doesn't win): 655 profitable wallets, $5.17M total exposure.

so 82% of profitable wallets sit on YES. but the NO side holds more than 2x the dollar value. and one wallet (newdogbeginning) accounts for 85% of that NO total.

heads count is one signal. dollars are another. on this market they say different things.

consensus counts heads. conviction counts dollars.

u/CandidateMediocre802 — 2 months ago
▲ 8 r/PredictionMarkets+1 crossposts

Polymarket intentionally locked my account 😄

I was testing Polymarket glitch if there games that nobody hyped or most betted or watched then started betting not popular games or players which is under 100k 200kgrossing betted games from both player side 80 percent of the time I was betting to earn 20-15 cents by betting 1 dollar by entering end of the game which is guaranteed player will win I was putting 10k 20k slowly making 2k 3 k with no issues suddenly Polymarket algorithm flagged me red 😄🤦🏻‍♂️probably then asked identity verification even it’s not expired and bank account card number matches my name and last name money that I have in Polymarket is locked no response no results i don’t know what’s best app for betting

u/CandidateMediocre802 — 2 months ago