u/CandidateMediocre802

biggest world cup position on polymarket right now is $4.37M against argentina winning the tournament. one wallet: newdogbeginning, a lifetime-profitable account with $910K realized PnL. entered at 88.6c per share. argentina has since firmed, leaving the position about $390K underwater.

what makes it interesting is the split on that same market when you filter to only profitable wallets:

YES (argentina wins): 2,942 profitable wallets, $2.35M total exposure.
NO (argentina doesn't win): 655 profitable wallets, $5.17M total exposure.

so 82% of profitable wallets sit on YES. but the NO side holds more than 2x the dollar value. and one wallet (newdogbeginning) accounts for 85% of that NO total.

heads count is one signal. dollars are another. on this market they say different things.

consensus counts heads. conviction counts dollars.

I was testing Polymarket glitch if there games that nobody hyped or most betted or watched then started betting not popular games or players which is under 100k 200kgrossing betted games from both player side 80 percent of the time I was betting to earn 20-15 cents by betting 1 dollar by entering end of the game which is guaranteed player will win I was putting 10k 20k slowly making 2k 3 k with no issues suddenly Polymarket algorithm flagged me red 😄🤦🏻‍♂️probably then asked identity verification even it’s not expired and bank account card number matches my name and last name money that I have in Polymarket is locked no response no results i don’t know what’s best app for betting