u/CartographerIll2372

Why secure a 2% yield on western miners when $1378.HK pays 5%+ with massive growth?

Serious question for the income investors here: Why is the market giving so much premium to stocks like Alcoa ($AA) or Rio Tinto ($RIO) when their yields are relatively low or volatile, while Hongqiao ($1378.HK) is sitting right here offering a ~5% forward yield?

Their total full-year 2025 net income held strong at RMB 22.64B, and the recent Q1 earnings show their Yunnan hydro-power cost advantage is completely crushing it. Getting paid a juicy dividend while holding a company with a structural cost moat feels like a no-brainer to me. With the May 22 ex-div deadline basically here, it’s hard not to allocate some cash. What’s the bear case on their dividend sustainability that I might be blind to?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 1 day ago

Only 2 days left before $1378.HK goes ex-div. Who’s locking in that $1.65?

Just a quick calendar check for anyone tracking materials—the ex-dividend date for Hongqiao is coming up this Friday, May 22. They approved a final payout of HK$1.65 per share, which puts the forward yield right around 5.3% at the current price.

With the stock pulling back slightly to the ~$30 range after that massive run, this dividend feels like a pretty sweet margin of safety. Honestly, given their ridiculous cash position (RMB 59B) and that 30% jump in Q1 net profit, the payout looks safe af.

I'm definitely buying this pre-dividend dip to bag the cash before the cutoff. Anyone else loading up right now, or do yall usually wait for the post-dividend drop to stack shares? Let know if im missing any catch here lol.

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 2 days ago

Anyone else surprised by how well Goose Goose Duck is doing in China?

Just saw in the $HUYA earnings call that Goose Goose Duck was sitting at the #1 spot on the App Store free games list for most of Q1. It’s a huge win for their publishing arm. They even mentioned that after launching new skins in April, the game broke into the Top 5 Grossing list.

It's a smart move because they are using their own platform to drive traffic to their own games, which basically eliminates the massive marketing costs other publishers have to pay. They also teased more SLG and MMO titles coming later this year, so it looks like GGD was just the proof of concept for a much bigger publishing play. Any fellow shareholders here? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 2 days ago
▲ 12 r/traders

What’s one stock you think is ready to breakout despite already running hard?

We've all seen a bunch of stocks rip 100%+ over the past year, and usually, that’s the cue to start looking for the exit. But lately, I’ve been hunting for names where the actual business growth is somehow outbacing the stock price, meaning they’re still fundamentally cheap despite the massive run.

For me, China Hongqiao ($1378.HK) fits this perfectly right now. The stock is up over 130% in a year, but after digging into their Q1 numbers, their net profit just jumped 30% YoY (hitting over RMB 8.2 billion). Because the earnings exploded, the trailing P/E is still sitting at a modest 12.4x (and an absurd 8.1x forward P/E). It feels like a high-conviction growth story hiding in a commodity sector, plus they have a 4.9% dividend yield with the ex-div date coming up on May 22 as a nice cushion.

I’m tempted to load up more before the cutoff because the setup for H2 looks incredibly strong. But I'm curious—what’s one high-momentum stock on your radar that you think still has tons of runway left? Are yall rotating into value/infrastructure plays like this, or sticking to tech?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 3 days ago

Anyone else playing the $RERE earnings on May 19?

counting down to the q1 call. management guided for ~27% growth, and they have a history of being pretty conservative and beating their own targets. the floor around $4.50 feels really solid rn, so i’m wondering if a beat could finally push us past that $5 resistance.

i’m leaning towards holding through the report, but what’s the sentiment here? are u guys adding at these levels or just watching from the sidelines?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 4 days ago

$1378.HK’s $1.5B "Bauxite Moat"—Smartest move in the sector?

With Guinea tightening bauxite exports, most players are sweating. But Hongqiao just raised $1.5B to stockpile and expand overseas, basically front-running the supply squeeze while $RIO and $AA face rising costs. Since their backed SMB is already leading Guinea's exports (up 25% in Q1), their margins are looking untouchable.

I’m holding for that juicy 4.9% dividend, but the real prize is the re-rating as they corner the market. With the May 22 ex-div date approaching, the setup for a breakout toward that $44+ target looks solid.

Is the "Bauxite King" still flying under your radar, or are yall seeing this massive supply chain play too? Looks like a high-conviction winner for H2 2026.

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 7 days ago

Is it smarter to own the game developers or the distribution platforms right now?

I used to just bet on $TCEHY or $NTES for gaming exposure, but the cost of making games is getting out of control. I’ve been looking at $HUYA as a different way to play the sector. Instead of building games, they just distributed Goose Goose Duck and it sat at the #1 spot on the App Store for most of Q1.

Their Q1 report shows game-related services now make up over 36% of their total revenue. It feels like they’ve built a "toll booth" for gaming where they take a cut of everything without the development risk. Are there any other platforms like $HUYA or $BILI that people think are actually winning the distribution war in 2026?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 8 days ago

$1.5B raised to hoard bauxite? Hongqiao is playing 4D chess right now

Did yall catch the news about Hongqiao raising $1.5 billion via convertible bonds? The strike price is set at HK$43.90—a massive premium from where we’re trading now. It feels like the underwriters are screaming that they expect a breakout to the mid-40s sooner than we think.

The cash is for "bauxite stockpiling," which is a genius move given the supply chain mess in Guinea. While others struggle with raw material costs, Hongqiao is building an untouchable moat. It’s a high-conviction play while everyone else is distracted by the usual tech hype. Plus, with aluminum being the backbone of AI infra, this is a massive double win. It’s sitting at a 12.4x P/E right now and that 4.9% yield is still juicy as hell.

With the ex-dividend date coming up on May 22, I’m tempted to add a bit more here. Does this look like a "smart money" signal to you guys? Curious to hear if anyone else is watching the "Bauxite King" closely.

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 10 days ago

I know the urge to hit "Sell" is strong after seeing a 47% gain in six months. Watching a stock return over 160% in a year usually makes you fear a crash, but looking at the macro, I'm convinced we’re only in the opening act. We are at the start of a global grid upgrade and an AI infra boom where aluminum is the literal physical backbone for data centers and cooling.

The reason I see Hongqiao as the "Standard Oil" of our time is their insane supply chain integration. While others struggle with energy costs, they locked in the world’s cheapest hydro-power in Yunnan. When you control everything from bauxite to renewable energy, a 13.6x P/E feels like a gift compared to tech multiples.

It’s also hard to ignore that the smartest money in Asia is doubling down here. The Zhang family’s wealth just hit record highs because they put Hongqiao at the center of the AI and EV transition. Instead of swing trading the noise, I'd rather sit tight and collect that 4.4% dividend while the market catches up.

With the May 22 ex-div date coming up and a $44.47 target on the horizon, I’m comfy holding through the volatility. This isn't a quick buck; it’s a generational play on the materials powering the future. Anyone else holding for the "Aluminum Supercycle," or are yall just taking profits and running?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 17 days ago

i've been looking at the numbers for $rere and i'm genuinely trying to figure out why we’re still trading at $4.78. the average analyst target is sitting at $7.14, which is a massive gap compared to the current price. it feels like the business is evolving way faster than the stock price reflects, especially with a target showing nearly 50% potential upside.

the financials actually look solid for a change—trailing eps is at 0.20 and the p/e ratio is around 23.90, which isn't crazy for a company guiding for ~27% growth. plus, it’s officially a billion-dollar market cap company now, so it’s not exactly a tiny "nobody" stock. it’s rare to find a growth play that’s also paying a dividend while staying this steady.

with a beta of only 0.28, it’s been one of the most "chill" spots in my portfolio lately. i’m curious if the market is just waiting for the may 19 earnings call to finally bridge that gap to the $7 level. i’m holding steady and watching the accumulation—it feels like the floor at $4.50 is solid while we wait for the next leg up.

do you guys think $7.14 is a realistic target for this year?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 19 days ago

Looking at the latest chart, Hongqiao is consolidating beautifully at $37.30. They just confirmed a HK$1.65 dividend.

You’re getting a company that’s growing like a tech stock but paying a dividend like a utility. In this macro environment, that’s a rare unicorn. I’m loading up before the May 22 cutoff to lock in that yield and the potential breakout to $45.

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 24 days ago

We are just a few weeks away from the next major catalyst. Management has already guided for roughly 27% growth in Q1 2026, and given their track record, I wouldn't be surprised by another beat.

The company is firing on all cylinders: core electronics, high-margin multi-category recycling (gold!), and new automated tech. The sentiment is incredibly bullish. Are you expecting a breakout past the $6 resistance? What’s your price target post-earnings?

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u/CartographerIll2372 — 25 days ago