I’m going to start vibecoding a stock trading app geared towards Gen Z/Gen Alpha that makes stock trading as entertaining as gambling.

Too many kids are becoming addicted to gambling trying to make quick cash. I thought with the right API & UI kids (18+) will be more inclined to trading stocks instead of their minimum wages against rigged casino odds.

PvP Matches utilizing penny stock shares going up to full priced stocks will also be setup on the app.

For those who would like to follow along I will be replying to this thread and/or be making posts on this subreddit.

- Happy Coding

[NO CRYPTO ALLOWED]

NVDA trade card · OptionWhales daily thesis

Someone Spent $270,000 to Buy a Five-Dollar-Wide Slice of Nvidia's Upside

At 11:17:01 ET on August 17, with NVDA trading at $227.27, two option orders printed in the same second, in matched size: 1,500 November 20, 2026 $240 calls bought at roughly $13.90 a share, and 1,500 of the $245 calls of the same expiry sold at roughly $12.10. Gross premium across both legs came to $3.9 million. The cash that actually left the account was $270,000 — $1.80 per share on a structure five dollars wide.

That last sentence is the whole trade. This was not a purchase of calls. It was the purchase of a bounded corridor: the buyer acquired exposure that begins at $240, about 5.6% above where the stock was trading, and stops dead at $245, about 7.8% above. Everything above $245 was sold away to help pay for it. The classifier flags the two legs as one package with 90% confidence, inferred from identical size and same-second execution. We cannot prove one account owns both — that inference is from the tape, not from a filing.

The Debit Tells Us Which Leg Was Which

Our per-leg buyer/seller tagging on this print is weak — 10% confidence on each side, which is barely better than a coin flip. So the orientation is not established by the tape. It is established by arithmetic. The package cost money rather than paying money, and a 240/245 call vertical only produces a net debit in one configuration: long the lower strike, short the higher one. Had the legs been reversed, the same two prices would have generated a $270,000 credit. They did not. The debit is the evidence.

The Volatility View Nets to Nothing, and So Does Most of the Direction

Both legs carry essentially the same implied volatility — 39.4% on the long leg, 39.3% on the short — and share the same November 20 expiry. Buying vol at one price and selling it at effectively the same price in the same month means the volatility exposures largely cancel. Whatever this position is, it is not a bet on Nvidia's option premiums getting richer or cheaper.

Direction is trimmed almost as hard. The long $240 call carries a delta of 0.452; the short $245 call, 0.411. Net, the package began life with about 0.04 of delta per spread — roughly 6,100 shares of stock-equivalent exposure, or about $1.4 million of directional footprint from $3.9 million of gross premium. The bias is upward, and that holds regardless of anything else in this article. But it is a deliberately small bias, bounded on both ends by design.

That is why the payload's "non-directional" intent label deserves scrutiny rather than repetition. A call debit spread leans bullish. What is unusual here is how little directional exposure the trader retained for the premium committed.

What We Cannot Determine, and Why That Matters

Whether this opened a new position or closed an old one is not determinable. The reason is specific: prior-day open interest is known for both contracts — 12,737 at the $240 strike, 9,078 at the $245 — and both figures dwarf the 1,500 lots traded. When existing interest is that much larger than the trade, the volume could have been created or extinguished inside it, and the open-interest print cannot distinguish. Zero percent of this package sits in legs that can be signed either way, well below the threshold we require to characterise a position.

The directional lean does not soften because of that. A bounded long-call structure is bullish-leaning whether it establishes a new view or unwinds an old one. What we cannot claim is motive. A hedge against a share position, a delta-neutral book, or a corporate exposure we cannot see would look identical on the tape.

Nine Days to Earnings, Ninety-Five to Expiry

Nvidia reports Q2 fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, after the close — nine sessions after this print. The expiry sits 95 days out, meaning the position spans that report and, on Nvidia's historical calendar, plausibly a second one in November; the Q3 date was not confirmed at the time of writing, so treat that as unresolved rather than assumed.

The day's discourse was about the durability of Nvidia's position against hyperscaler-designed silicon, framed by a Motley Fool piece published August 16 asking where each moat is strongest and what could weaken it. That is context, not causation. Nothing in the tape links this structure to that argument.

*This is analysis of publicly reported options activity, not investment advice. Options carry risk of total loss, and the intent behind any single trade is unknowable from public data.*

I am relatively new to this setup, Whole 2024 I have given to ICT, At the end, its not good or bad, its just not for me,
Then 2025 I moved to naked and raw chart trading...learned the basics of PA, Structure, etc. Became break even and started pulling some profits.. but it was mentally exhausting, and trading multiple assets across multiple Tf it becomes too difficult and performance started decreasing.
Then I came across Oliver Velez. Liked the concept, initially thought how can it be so simple? then with time realized its not about mere 2 moving averages, its moreover, candle formation with its location.
But, I trade futures like MNQ, MGC, SIl with Personal account for other assets and stock swing trading.
Oliver doesn't trade live, he always explained on a completed chart.
My question here is, anyone tried and master this skill and it paying off them for long time now? should I stick to it or just skip it, anything else will you recommend or advices on 20-200SMA.
Anything will be helpful..Thank you!!

Does anyone else do this without even thinking? Unlock phone -> tap Zerodha or Dhan -> stare at the MTM.

Even when the market is closed, or I have a strict stop-loss in place and no reason to look, I find myself compulsively checking the screen. It is exhausting. I’ve realized that just looking at the fluctuating numbers triggers emotional decisions—I end up exiting good trades early or taking random trades just because I was staring at the chart too long.

I am trying to build a habit of forcing a pause or going through a mental checklist before I even let myself open the app, but the muscle memory is incredibly strong.

Has anyone successfully broken the habit of constantly checking their P&L? What actually worked for you?

We all have that sticky note on our monitor.

• "Only take 2 trades a day."
• "Never hold intraday losses overnight."
• "Wait for the candle to close."

And yet, when the market is moving fast, those rules suddenly become "suggestions." I'll swear to myself I'm only taking one trade today, but the moment I hit a stop-loss, I'm immediately hunting for a second trade to recover it.

Which of your own rules do you find the hardest to actually obey when the live market is ticking?

WDC has not been taking off as well as it was expected. After their earnings report, they went down a little and have finally caught up just a tiny bit after the SNDK Investor day in 480-500 range.
Experienced holders what do you think the price will be in the next few months?
Will ever reach the 800 or 1000 range by EOY?
Are there any bag holders and if so, then what is their plan and price exit strategy?
Open to discuss discussions !

I've been posting for the last 23 weeks straight about using CSPs to achieve 1% weekly returns from selling options on about $100,000 in cash. This week I'm rolling a little earlier on Thursday instead of Friday because the value of most puts has gone close to zero as you can see from the total drawdown below.

As usual, I will post my trades in the comments as I make them. Remember in addition to this 1%, cash invested in CSPs also earns interest but I don't count that in my returns. Last week's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheRaceTo10Million/comments/1vh6kld/1_weekly_returns_from_options_week_23/

Returns So Far

Total Premium	$20,207.00
Current drawdown	-$121.00
Gain/Loss from Assignment	-$682.00
Total gains	$20,086.00
Annualized (Calc1 using average invested)	61.09%
Annualized (Calc2 using max invested)	40.58%

Strategy:
- Use an AI screener to give me a list of top 20 low delta options for next week
- I either
- a. Roll my current options - I do this if I can still get 1% for rolling or if the option is ATM/ITM and I have to roll. I always roll for credit.
- b. Close a current option and pick something else from the list that I like
- I try to do this every Friday. However, if I'm busy on Fridays, I'll sometimes do this on Thursdays.

AI Prompt:
I give this prompt to brokerbotics AI:

find me 20 unique lowest risk puts to sell on stocks
expiry: next week
strike at least 8% from stock price
return at least 1%
sort by delta
furthest away from stock price
minimum strike price 10

Prompt Results

Here are 20 unique cash-secured put option candidates expiring next week (August 21, 2026) that satisfy all criteria: strike price >= $10, strike at least 8% below the current stock price, return on capital >= 1.0% (bid / strike), sorted by lowest absolute delta and maximum distance from the stock price.

Symbol	Strike ($)	Stock Price ($)	Distance (%)	Bid ($)	Return (%)	Delta	IV (%)
ALOY	$10.00	$12.57	20.45%	$0.10	1.00%	-0.0976	129.3%
NBIS	$220.00	$270.22	18.58%	$2.25	1.02%	-0.1002	116.8%
AAOI	$113.00	$138.00	18.12%	$1.15	1.02%	-0.1101	119.2%
CBRS	$195.00	$229.70	15.11%	$2.15	1.10%	-0.1286	105.4%
SNDK	$1,210.00	$1,395.59	13.30%	$12.50	1.03%	-0.1298	91.5%
NVTS	$12.00	$14.05	14.59%	$0.12	1.00%	-0.1312	102.5%
CRDO	$240.00	$277.93	13.65%	$2.50	1.04%	-0.1340	96.1%
BE	$210.00	$244.58	14.14%	$2.46	1.17%	-0.1366	101.4%
CIFR	$15.00	$17.52	14.38%	$0.18	1.20%	-0.1370	103.7%
IREN	$41.00	$47.44	13.58%	$0.47	1.15%	-0.1378	97.3%
SLS	$10.00	$11.82	15.40%	$0.10	1.00%	-0.1381	112.9%
LQDA	$67.00	$79.71	15.95%	$0.70	1.04%	-0.1391	118.3%
SMCI	$35.00	$39.52	11.44%	$0.36	1.03%	-0.1446	82.7%
ALAB	$282.50	$321.90	12.24%	$3.00	1.06%	-0.1477	90.6%
AXTI	$65.00	$77.74	16.39%	$1.00	1.54%	-0.1494	128.7%
AMAT	$490.00	$551.35	11.13%	$4.95	1.01%	-0.1514	82.8%
CRWV	$102.00	$114.95	11.27%	$1.13	1.11%	-0.1533	84.7%
FCEL	$18.00	$21.00	14.29%	$0.20	1.11%	-0.1536	111.5%
ASTS	$65.00	$73.70	11.80%	$0.74	1.14%	-0.1536	89.4%
SKHY	$142.00	$159.20	10.80%	$1.45	1.02%	-0.1540	81.1%

Historical Performance

	Week	Capital Invested	Premium Made	Return %	Notes
3/6	Week 1	$0.00	$0.00	0.00%
3/13	Week 2	$13,100.00	$131.00	1.00%
3/20	Week 3	$19,850.00	$203.00	1.02%
3/27	Week 4	$41,500.00	$596.00	1.44%
4/3	Week 5	$34,150.00	$353.00	1.03%
4/10	Week 6	$43,350.00	$462.00	1.07%
4/17	Week 7	$53,800.00	$573.00	1.07%
4/24	Week 8	$70,400.00	$811.00	1.15%
5/1	Week 9	$103,450.00	$1,093.00	1.06%
5/8	Week 10	$97,400.00	$1,040.00	1.07%
5/15	Week 11	$102,800.00	$1,077.00	1.05%
5/22	Week 12	$98,600.00	$1,170.00	1.19%
	Week 12.5	$106,100.00	$475.00	0.45%	Bonus round
5/29	Week 13	$106,100.00	$1,133.00	1.07%
	Week 13.5	$115,900.00	$336.00	0.29%	Bonus round
6/5	Week 14	$105,750.00	$1,053.00	1.00%
6/12	Week 15	$110,700.00	$1,146.00	1.04%
6/19	Week 16	$111,850.00	$1,105.00	0.99%
6/26	Week 17	$108,350.00	$1,045.00	0.96%	Got SLV 65.5 assigned
7/3	Week 18	$111,550.00	$1,126.00	1.01%
7/10	Week 19	$102,850.00	$1,111.00	1.08%
	Week 19 Bonus	$108,550.00	$98.00	0.09%	APLD 1:3 to avoid assignment
7/17	Week 20	$104,350.00	$842.00	0.81%
7/24	Week 21	$111,500.00	$1,148.00	1.03%	RKLB 2:3 to reduce strike
7/31	Week 22	$105,660.00	$1,021.00	0.97%
	Week 22 bonus	$99,960.00	$7.00	0.01%	ASTS 2:1 to reduce exposure
8/7	Week 23	$104,850.00	$1,052.00	1.00%

First time investor. Thinking of subscribing to Financial Times or The Economist for info about the world so I can make decisions about stocks. Which one is better?

My background: I’ve spent 10+ years working in the investment banking industry, with experience across trading and software engineering. I recently put together a trading book to organize the framework I use to understand the markets.

This is not a “get rich quick” book, but if you follow the instructions I’ve written in the book, your consistency can dramatically improve.

The goal is to help traders understand why markets move and how different pieces of information fit together.

The book covers topics including:

* Options fundamentals and how options can influence market movements—not the basic stuff you see on social media.

* VIX and VIX futures

* VIX term structure and what it can tell you about market conditions

* How options positioning can contribute to market moves

* A systematic framework for analyzing market conditions

* Practical concepts that you can backtest and practice yourself

* How to put the different pieces together instead of relying on dozens of indicators

One of the biggest things I’ve learned is that trading isn’t about finding a magical indicator or predicting every move. It’s about understanding market structure, probabilities, volatility, positioning, and risk—and then developing a repeatable process.

I wrote this book for people who want to pursue trading as a career, whether they are trading a small personal account or using a prop firm account.

This industry is brutal, and unfortunately, not many people are willing to share valuable information that can actually help others improve.

The book may open your eyes to a different way of looking at the markets. If you do your own research and backtest the concepts I’ve included, I believe you’ll understand how valuable this framework can be.

If you’re genuinely interested, feel free to check my profile. I’m not trying to turn this post into an advertisement, and I don’t want it to be removed by the moderators. I’m simply here to help put struggling traders in the right direction and share what I’ve learned.

Best of luck, and trade safe.

Playboy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Second Quarter Revenue of $31.2 Million, an Increase of 11%; Net Income of $0.2 Million, an Improvement of $7.9 Million; and Adjusted EBITDA of $7.0 Million, an Increase of 100% and Inclusive of $0.7 Million of Litigation Expenses in the Quarter

LOS ANGELES, Aug. 10, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Playboy, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLBY) (the “Company” or “Playboy”), a global pleasure and leisure company connecting consumers with products, content, and experiences that help them lead happier, more fulfilling lives, today announced financial and operational results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Financial Summary
Click here for full table details

Second Quarter 2026 & Recent Operational Highlights
Playboy licensing revenue remains highly predictable and recurring, with approximately 91% of fiscal year 2026 licensing revenue supported by contractual guarantees and more than $320 million in unrecognized future revenue.

​
Honey Birdette delivered 18.2% year-over-year sales growth in the second quarter of 2026, with gross margin of 65.1%. Comparable store sales grew 15%, with positive comparable store sales growth in all regions and through all channels.

​
The Company grew total cash, including restricted cash, by approximately $2.5 million during the second quarter reflecting ongoing operations of the business, in contrast to the first quarter, which included significant one-time closing costs incurred in connection with the new China JV transaction.

​
Opened fan voting in the Company’s global model search collaboration between Playboy and Honey Birdette that attracted nearly 50,000, or three times the number of contestants, and approximately two and a half times the revenue as the Company’s prior contest. The latest contest’s economics are not included in the second quarter results because the contest did not end until August.

​
Announced agreement to repurchase 16.6 million shares of common stock, representing nearly 14% of the Company’s outstanding shares, at a fixed price of $1.05 per share, a 28% discount to market value at the time of transaction, and supported by a backstop agreement with two significant stockholders.

​
Playboy joined the small-cap Russell 2000® Index and the broad-market Russell 3000® Index in connection with the conclusion of the 2026 Russell indexes reconstitution, which the Company believes may increase its visibility within the institutional investment community, broaden its shareholder base and enhance trading liquidity.
​
Management Commentary
Ben Kohn, Chief Executive Officer of Playboy, commented, “The second quarter demonstrated that the platform we have built is compounding, with continued revenue growth, our sixth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, and decisive steps to create shareholder value. Our agreement to repurchase Fortress’s entire 16.6 million-share position, nearly 14% of our shares outstanding, at a 28% discount to market value at the time of the transaction is immediately accretive to stockholders, and we structured the payments to preserve balance sheet flexibility that supports our deleveraging plan.
“Our brand engine continues to gain momentum. Following our sold-out Spring 2026 issue starring Karol G, we revealed Cara Delevingne as our Summer 2026 cover star, and another paid-voting contest, in collaboration with Honey Birdette, attracted nearly 50,000 contestants, nearly three times our prior contest. Our licensing foundation remains highly predictable, anchored by contractual guarantees and more than $320 million in unrecognized future licensing revenue, while Honey Birdette continues to grow with strong gross margins.
“Joining the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes at the end of June reflects the meaningful progress we have made in strengthening Playboy’s operating performance and balance sheet. With a clear path to further debt reduction and a content engine that keeps Playboy at the center of culture, we are executing from a position of strength as we work to deliver sustainable, long-term value for my fellow stockholders,” concluded Kohn.
Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Total revenue grew 11% to $31.2 million, compared to $28.1 million in the second quarter of 2025. The increase in revenue was primarily due to continued strong performance of Honey Birdette.
Direct-to-consumer revenue was $19.5 million, up 18.2% from the $16.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. The increase was driven by stronger than expected growth both online and in stores, with higher gross margins.
Licensing revenue was $11.2 million, compared to $10.9 million in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of $0.2 million, or 2.2%. The change was primarily due to the Company’s continued repositioning of its licensing business around fewer, larger partners.
Operating expenses were $28.2 million, a decrease of 17.0% from $34.0 million in the second quarter of 2025. The decrease is due largely to the prior year comparative period having a $2.4 million non-recurring settlement with a licensing agent, $1.5 million in impairment charges related to right-of-use assets, and lower personnel and legal expenses in the second quarter of 2026.
Net income was $0.2 million, or less than a cent per share, compared to a net loss of $7.7 million, or $(0.08) per share, in the second quarter of 2025. The improvement is due to continued revenue growth and a focus on operating efficiencies.
Adjusted EBITDA was $7.0 million, an increase of 100% from adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. Excluding litigation expenses, adjusted EBITDA would have been $7.7 million.
As of June 30, 2026, the Company had $37.1 million in total cash.
Conference Call
Management will host an investor conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on Monday, August 10, 2026, to discuss the Company’s second quarter 2026 financial results, provide a corporate update, and conclude with taking questions from telephone participants. To participate, please use the following information:
Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call
Date: Monday, August 10, 2026
Time: 5:00 p.m. Eastern time
U.S. Dial-in: 1-877-423-9813
International Dial-in: 1-201-689-8573
Conference ID: 13761740
Webcast: https://viavid.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1769724&tp\_key=2ae57247c3
Please join at least five minutes before the start of the call to ensure timely participation.
A telephone playback of the call will be available through Thursday, September 10, 2026. To listen, please call 1-844-512-2921, using replay pin number 13761740. A webcast replay will be available using the webcast link above.
About Playboy, Inc.
Playboy (Nasdaq: PLBY) is a global pleasure and leisure company, built on one of the most globally recognized brands. By leveraging its iconic intellectual property, Playboy pursues an asset-light model across licensing, digital content, consumer products and experiential offerings, helping consumers worldwide to live more fulfilling lives. To learn more, please visit https://investors.playboy.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The Company’s actual results may differ from their expectations, estimates, and projections and, consequently, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. Words such as “expect”, “estimate”, “project”, “budget”, “forecast”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “believes”, “predicts”, “potential”, “continue”, and similar expressions (or the negative versions of such words or expressions) are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, without limitation, the Company’s expectations with respect to future performance, growth plans and anticipated financial impacts of its strategic opportunities and corporate transactions.
These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause such differences include, but are not limited to: (1) the inability to maintain the listing of the Company’s shares of common stock on Nasdaq; (2) the risk that the Company’s completed or proposed transactions disrupt the Company’s current plans and/or operations, including the risk that the Company does not complete any such proposed transactions or achieve the expected benefits from any transactions; (3) the ability to recognize the anticipated benefits of corporate transactions, commercial collaborations, cost reduction initiatives and proposed transactions, which may be affected by, among other things, competition, the ability of the Company to grow and manage growth profitably, and the Company’s ability to retain its key employees; (4) costs related to being a public company, corporate transactions, commercial collaborations and proposed transactions; (5) changes in applicable laws or regulations; (6) the possibility that the Company may be adversely affected by global hostilities, supply chain delays, inflation, interest rates, tariffs, foreign currency exchange rates or other economic, business, and/or competitive factors; (7) risks relating to the uncertainty of the projected financial information of the Company, including changes in the Company’s estimates of cash flows and the fair value of certain of its intangible assets, including goodwill; (8) risks related to the organic and inorganic growth of the Company’s businesses, and the timing of expected business milestones; (9) changing demand or shopping patterns for the Company’s products and services; (10) failure of licensees, suppliers or other third-parties to fulfill their obligations to the Company; (11) the Company’s high concentration of licensing revenue from a small number of licensees; (12) the Company’s ability to comply with the terms of its indebtedness and other obligations; (13) changes in financing markets or the inability of the Company to obtain financing on attractive terms; and (14) other risks and uncertainties indicated from time to time in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, including those under “Risk Factors” therein, and in the Company’s other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company cautions that the foregoing list of factors is not exclusive, and readers should not place undue reliance upon any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date which they were made. The Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Investor Relations Contact:
Lucas A. Zimmerman
Managing Director
MZ Group - MZ North America
+1 (949) 259-4987
PLBY@mzgroup.us or investors@playboy.com
Public Relations Contact: press@playboy.com

I've been posting for the last 21 weeks straight about using CSPs to achieve 1% weekly returns from selling options on about $100,000 in cash. This week I plan to be a bit busy tomorrow so will try to get as many trades as possible in today. Might still have to do some tomorrow.

As usual, I will post my trades in the comments as I make them. Remember in addition to this 1%, cash invested in CSPs also earns interest but I don't count that in my returns. Last week's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheRaceTo10Million/comments/1vbrfme/1_weekly_returns_from_options_week_22/

Strategy:
- Use an AI screener to give me a list of top 20 low delta options for next week
- I either
- a. Roll my current options - I do this if I can still get 1% for rolling or if the option is ATM/ITM and I have to roll. I always roll for credit.
- b. Close a current option and pick something else from the list that I like
- I try to do this every Friday. However, if I'm busy on Fridays, I'll sometimes do this on Thursdays.

AI Prompt:
I give this prompt to brokerbotics AI:

find me 20 unique lowest risk puts to sell on stocks
expiry: next week
strike at least 8% from stock price
return at least 1%
sort by delta
furthest away from stock price
minimum strike price 10

AI prompt results:

Put Options Candidates (Expiring Aug 14, 2026)

Symbol	Stock Price	Strike Price	Distance Out	Bid Premium	Return on Strike	Delta	Implied Volatility	Open Interest	Volume
NBIS	$211.97	$150.00	29.24%	$1.60	1.07%	-0.067	170.7%	1,503	165
AAOI	$130.60	$90.00	31.09%	$1.00	1.11%	-0.068	186.8%	569	77
CRWV	$87.99	$68.00	22.72%	$0.68	1.00%	-0.082	134.9%	598	4
AXTI	$75.22	$54.00	28.21%	$0.55	1.02%	-0.089	185.2%	62	2
LITE	$871.60	$680.00	21.98%	$7.20	1.06%	-0.089	134.9%	88	3
SNDK	$1,253.45	$995.00	20.62%	$10.40	1.05%	-0.092	127.1%	147	62
SMCI	$30.51	$24.00	21.34%	$0.27	1.13%	-0.094	133.7%	816	130
ASTS	$72.45	$57.00	21.33%	$0.61	1.07%	-0.095	134.4%	119	74
COHR	$350.34	$270.00	22.93%	$3.10	1.15%	-0.099	150.0%	96	43
RKLB	$78.72	$63.00	19.97%	$0.69	1.10%	-0.100	127.1%	153	22
IREN	$39.51	$32.00	19.01%	$0.35	1.09%	-0.102	121.0%	2,192	50
TTD	$17.89	$14.50	18.95%	$0.15	1.03%	-0.103	121.1%	379	507
CIFR	$18.75	$15.00	20.00%	$0.15	1.00%	-0.103	129.3%	299	2
NVTS	$13.01	$10.50	19.29%	$0.11	1.05%	-0.105	124.9%	277	5
BE	$244.38	$195.00	20.21%	$2.32	1.19%	-0.105	132.3%	241	21
SKHY	$145.27	$119.00	18.08%	$1.25	1.05%	-0.108	117.7%	225	25
FLY	$24.60	$18.50	24.80%	$0.20	1.08%	-0.108	174.4%	27	18
CRDO	$236.18	$195.00	17.44%	$1.95	1.00%	-0.109	113.4%	136	6
RDW	$12.16	$10.00	17.76%	$0.10	1.00%	-0.110	116.2%	427	35
USAR	$17.81	$14.50	18.59%	$0.16	1.10%	-0.111	123.6%	219	1

Returns So Far

Total Premium	$19,155.00
Current drawdown	-$275.00
Gain/Loss from Assignment	-$973.00
Total gains	$18,880.00
Annualized (Calc1 using average invested)	58.24%
Annualized (Calc2 using max invested)	38.14%

Past Weeks

	Week	Capital Invested	Premium Made	Return %	Notes
3/6	Week 1	$0.00	$0.00	0.00%
3/13	Week 2	$13,100.00	$131.00	1.00%
3/20	Week 3	$19,850.00	$203.00	1.02%
3/27	Week 4	$41,500.00	$596.00	1.44%
4/3	Week 5	$34,150.00	$353.00	1.03%
4/10	Week 6	$43,350.00	$462.00	1.07%
4/17	Week 7	$53,800.00	$573.00	1.07%
4/24	Week 8	$70,400.00	$811.00	1.15%
5/1	Week 9	$103,450.00	$1,093.00	1.06%
5/8	Week 10	$97,400.00	$1,040.00	1.07%
5/15	Week 11	$102,800.00	$1,077.00	1.05%
5/22	Week 12	$98,600.00	$1,170.00	1.19%
	Week 12.5	$106,100.00	$475.00	0.45%	Bonus round
5/29	Week 13	$106,100.00	$1,133.00	1.07%
	Week 13.5	$115,900.00	$336.00	0.29%	Bonus round
6/5	Week 14	$105,750.00	$1,053.00	1.00%
6/12	Week 15	$110,700.00	$1,146.00	1.04%
6/19	Week 16	$111,850.00	$1,105.00	0.99%
6/26	Week 17	$108,350.00	$1,045.00	0.96%	Got SLV 65.5 assigned
7/3	Week 18	$111,550.00	$1,126.00	1.01%
7/10	Week 19	$102,850.00	$1,111.00	1.08%
	Week 19 Bonus	$108,550.00	$98.00	0.09%	APLD 1:3 to avoid assignment
7/17	Week 20	$104,350.00	$842.00	0.81%
7/24	Week 21	$111,500.00	$1,148.00	1.03%	RKLB 2:3 to reduce strike
7/31	Week 22	$105,660.00	$1,021.00	0.97%
	Week 22 bonus	$99,960.00	$7.00	0.01%	ASTS 2:1 to reduce exposure

Note. Minor change from last week. Updated the dates to Fridays because my weeks are counted Friday to Friday.

Hello, I have around 3 grand invested but I am young and want more risks. Should I get into option trading or start buying risker stocks? I have researched option trading and I can afford to lose a bit of money if it means I will learn to earn it back.

How many of you guys are honestly good at ready charts and judging news for making your trades? How many of you subscribe to some discord for help with trades? Who uses apps that help interpret chains or news? I’m just trying to see what I’m missing here. I’ve been working at it for a while and still having trouble catching these flows and knowing what strike to make my trades at. I’m jealous of you bastards that just straight up gamble your money in options and make house money. Respectfully of course.

Most common and fatal approaches is the obsession with a "99% win rate." Traders will use grid bots, martingale systems, or massive stop-losses to ensure they almost never close a red trade.

In quantitative finance, this is known as "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller." You win tiny amounts of money 99 times, but the 100th time, the steamroller catches you.

If you think a high win rate guarantees long-term profitability, you need to look at the legendary collapse of Victor Niederhoffer in 1997.

The Statistical Genius

In the 1990s, Victor Niederhoffer was considered one of the smartest men on Wall Street. He was a statistics professor, a champion squash player, and a former partner of billionaire George Soros.

Niederhoffer ran a highly successful hedge fund using a strategy that felt mathematically unbeatable: he aggressively sold out-of-the-money put options on the S&P 500.

In simple terms, he was selling "crash insurance" to other traders. As long as the stock market didn't suddenly completely collapse, the options would expire worthless, and Niederhoffer would quietly collect the premium. Because severe market crashes are statistically rare, his win rate was astronomically high. He made consistent, steady profits for years. He was picking up pennies, and the steamroller was nowhere in sight.

The fatal flaw of this strategy is negative skew. When you win, you win a very small amount. But when you are wrong, your losses are theoretically infinite.

Niederhoffer was absolutely convinced that a massive, sudden market drop was a statistical impossibility. He trusted his historical data models so much that he didn't buy any protective hedges to cap his downside risk. He was completely exposed.

October 27, 1997: The Steamroller Accelerates

In late October 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis triggered a global panic. On Monday, October 27, the unthinkable happened: the Dow Jones plummeted 554 points (over 7%) in a single session, triggering market-wide circuit breakers.

Niederhoffer’s "impossible" scenario occurred in a matter of hours. The buyers of his put options rushed to cash in their crash insurance. Because Niederhoffer had no hedges and no stop-losses in place, the losses scaled exponentially.

By the end of the day, his broker issued a massive margin call. He didn't have the cash. His entire fund was forcefully liquidated. In one single afternoon, a strategy that had worked flawlessly for years vaporized $130 million and destroyed his fund completely.

The market does not care about your win rate. A 40% win rate with a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio will build generational wealth. A 99% win rate with an uncapped downside will eventually blow your account. Stop picking up pennies, manage your maximum risk on every single setup, and always respect the steamroller.