$51M in volume said chimaev walks through strickland
strickland won. the fade printed +$2,338
heavy MMA favorites are still coinflips with extra steps. the markets keep refusing to price it
same exact spot opens up every single card
dropping the breakdown of how we flag these below
noticed this a few days ago and started digging. the resolution criteria on several political and economic markets got updated with less fanfare than you'd expect for something that actually affects open positions. if you're holding contracts that depend on specific wording, it matters.
the short version is that some markets now have tighter language around what counts as an "official" source for resolution. sounds boring but it changes your edge calculation on a handful of active markets right now.
been tracking stuff like this in a small discord with some other serious traders. we catch resolution language shifts, polymarket vs kalshi pricing gaps, and the occasional arb window before it closes. no fluff, just the actual research.
if you want to see what we're watching this week, drop a comment
What a crazy card.
The last 2 fights were something special. Van launched Taira across the cage. Strickland proceeded to put BTA on Chimaev.
Led to some great wins.
I'll be running my analysis again for the White House Card.
Did you guys play Strickland or Chimaev let me know in the comments?
Keep fading Strickland 🤣
Hit on Van then Strickland made my night even better. 2 amazing fights, 2 amazing wins.
One of the best cards we've had in a while. Can't wait for the White House card.
I'll be posting my picks for that entire card just comment to get them.
ran the numbers on kalshi after ufc 328 last night
opening odds vs settlement on the spots we flagged:
strickland yes: .21 → .99
volkov no KO before rd 2: .89 → .99
brady vs buckley distance yes: .82 → .99
amosov yes: .75 → .99
if you played the full slate at the open you walked out with absurd ROI
the inefficiency is that retail on kalshi mostly trades the moneyline. method of victory markets are where the actual edge lives. especially on undercard fights where volume is thin
NBA live markets are also extremely soft right now. a member in our group cashed a knicks live trade for $2,475 after buying at 14 cents in q4. another cashed $548 the next game
we track these markets weekly with a research group. cross-platform, every sport, plus the trump mention markets that have been pricing political comments at 15 cents and settling at 99
if that sounds interesting feel free to check it out on my desc. its free
[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]
guy in our discord dropped his screenshot at like 1am
$100 → roughly $3k across 3 fights
strickland yes was 21 cents on kalshi going in. settled at 99
volkov no KO before round 2 was 89. settled 99
brady vs buckley going the distance was 82. closed 99
we ran the full card breakdown 3 days before fight night. went 11 right on picks. only misses were the ochoa carpenter distance market and gomis
the method of victory side of kalshi is where most of the edge still is. moneyline gets bid up fast. method markets stay soft especially on the undercard
if youre tired of getting juiced on sportsbooks for ufc, kalshi for method props is a different game
we research every card before fight night. free.
link on my profile if you wanna see how we approach it
vitality dropped map 1 vs falcons and the contracts on vitality map 2 sat at 70 cents. thats the best team in the world on their own map pick after a momentum reset.
$4,670 in. $6,709 out. one map.
the cs2 tab on kalshi gets a fraction of the volume the ufc tab gets and it shows in the prices. you can find a 5-10 cent gap to the live book line on basically every BO3 if you watch the demos.
is the cs2 tab dead or am i just early. genuinely curious how many people on this sub are trading esports here (comments)
the easter egg roll market traded $2.48m of volume and you could buy "egg" at single digit cents the morning of. the event is literally called the easter egg roll. i bought it. it hit in five minutes.
NASA artemis II i bet against "gravity" being said. paid out $524 on a $342 entry. they didnt say it.
these markets exist for one reason most prediction market traders dont watch press conferences, dont read transcripts, and dont sit through ceremonies. the people who do are getting paid every week.
am i the only one stacking these or is there a quiet group of mention market traders i havent met yet let me know in the comments
i went back through every ufc card since february and split my hit rate by card position.
prelims: 47% co-main + main: 71%
prelims are a trap. the lines move on volume the day of and the books arent letting them breathe long enough for real edges to settle. by the time you get to the main card the sharp money has cleaned the line and method of victory contracts are still soft because nobody trades those in volume.
last card i went 0-3 on prelims and still closed up 1,086% on the main (bio). starting to think prelims are just coinflips that the books wrap a story around.
is anyone else tracking hit rate by card position or am i overthinking this (comments)
Fight week with Chimaev Strickland and Van Taira on the same card feels like a clean stress test for event contract pricing.
Pulling sportsbook lines next to event-contract prices on big fights, the gap can be 4–6% on favorites and noticeably wider on dogs. Often worth the shop.
Mental model I use: books bake in juice and move on sharp action, event contracts move on flow. On heavy PPVs the flow gets loud, so timing the entry matters more than usual.
Curious how folks here are pricing the main event sticking with whatever the contract shows, or shading against the book number when there's a gap?
I put together a small thing that lines up implied probabilities across markets so I don't have to flip tabs all night. If you think what we're doing is cool feel free to check it out for free on my profile.
last full card had three fighters priced 4-7 cents off the book consensus on kalshi. all three hit.
my read is liquidity. one sharp trader moves a kalshi line that would barely register at draftkings. so the price stays soft longer than it should.
won't last forever. been logging every card since january. record and the spreadsheet are in my comments below if you want to actually look at it before deciding i'm full of it.
three straight losses to start. was about to log off.
stayed on the main card anyway because the model had bigger edges there. went 5-1 the rest of the way. (1,086%+)
starting to think prelims are basically coinflips dressed up as edges and the real money on ufc cards is the co-main and main where pricing actually has time to move.
been tracking every pick for months. happy to drop the breakdown in comments if anyone wants to see how hit rate splits by card position.
baptiste over sabalenka was the wildest one $10.09 in. paid $111.87 the world #1 going down at 10c implied
bolsova $60 → $719
yuan $60 → $496
kabbaj $6 → $66
teichmann $9 → $66
is tennis just thin enough that nobody is fading the dogs back to true odds the prices vs the major sportsbooks for the same matchups are insane womens singles in particular feels totally mispriced in the early rounds
anyone else been trading these? let me know in the comments
5 underdogs hit on the same womens singles slate
baptiste at +1009 over the world #1 sabalenka was the biggest one sportsbook would have given me +750ish on her with juice baked in kalshi paid +1009 net
bolsova +1093, yuan +714, kabbaj +928, teichmann +567
i think womens tennis is the softest market on the platform right now. nobody is pricing the dogs back to true odds in the early rounds because the volume is still sitting on football and basketball contracts
ive been posting these every week on my profile
sabalenka the actual world number 1 lost yesterday hailey baptiste was sitting at $10 on kalshi. paid $111
and the rest of the slate was even worse
bolsova $60 → $719
yuan $60 → $496
kabbaj $6 → $66
teichmann $9 → $66
five for five on womens singles dogs. $147 in. $1,458 out.
every one of them was a favored opponent. every yes contract on the dog paid out
i dont think the tennis tab gets enough attention. the volume on kalshi is sitting on top sport contracts and political mention markets so the early round tennis dogs just drift at opening prices and nobody pushes them back to true probability. the market is basically asleep
i share these on my profile for free every week whenever i find them
anyone else on these yesterday
the world #1 sabalenka lost. so did stearns. so did parry. so did zolotareva. so did bouzas
every single one of them was favored every single underdog yes contract paid +567% to +1093%
$10 baptiste → $111
$60 bolsova → $719
$60 yuan → $496
tennis on kalshi is basically a brand new market. nobody is sweating the dogs. the lines arent getting pushed back to true probability before matches
most of the volume sits on top sport contracts and political mention markets, so the smaller books just drift
if you trade prediction markets and havent looked at the tennis tab youre leaving money on the floor
i share these every week. its on my profile whenever i find them or check the comments
