u/Clean-Yogurtcloset94

Recent reports indicate that Anthropic's valuation could be down a third from its peak just two months ago as DeepSeek and Kimi are rapidly closing the performance gap at a fraction of the cost.

Anthropic is likely spending continuously into falling prices with a product that gets commoditized in a few quarters before it's paid for. That's pharma without patent protection, and nobody pays high valuation multiples for pharma without patents.

If frontier models are commoditizing this quickly, how much is Anthropic really worth?

Recent reports indicate that Anthropic's valuation could be down a third from its peak just two months ago as DeepSeek and Kimi are rapidly closing the performance gap at a fraction of the cost.

Anthropic is likely spending continuously into falling prices with a product that gets commoditized in a few quarters before it's paid for. That's pharma without patent protection, and nobody pays high valuation multiples for pharma without patents.

If frontier models are commoditizing this quickly, how much is Anthropic really worth?

Recent reports indicate that Anthropic's valuation could be down a third from its peak just two months ago as DeepSeek and Kimi are rapidly closing the performance gap at a fraction of the cost.

Anthropic is likely spending continuously into falling prices with a product that gets commoditized in a few quarters before it's paid for. That's pharma without patent protection, and nobody pays high valuation multiples for pharma without patents.

If frontier models are commoditizing this quickly, how much is Anthropic really worth?

Selling DRAM on today's strength. Not because the memory thesis broke, but because I bought a cycle and cycles get sold. Launched April 2 at $28, ran to $81, sitting around $50 last I looked, still way up from launch and where I bought.
I missed the opportunity to sell near highs but I don't want to be too greedy anymore.

Planning to re-invest DRAM proceeds into other fund/funds.

I thought about NASA as I am bullish on the Space theme but we all saw how dramatically poor the performance has been since SpaceX IPO.

ARKVX is really interesting. I like having exposure to the private markets but just a little concerned about high expense ratio and poor liquidity.

XOVR solves many of the issues I have with ARKVX, particularly around liquidity and fees (0.75% expense ratio vs ARKVX's 2.9%). The holdings are well positioned for the future. I'd just like to see a bit more pre-IPO exposure.

Or May be it is best to just buy VOO. Would appreciate any suggestions. SOX/SOXQ also interesting.

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I know this is probably an unpopular take, but I think the market is massively overestimating Anthropic’s moat.

Bloomberg is reporting that DeepSeek is already preparing for an IPO after reportedly raising at around a $71B valuation, and they got there by showing you don’t necessarily need insane compute budgets to build frontier models.

Meanwhile, models are becoming more interchangeable. OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, Meta, xAI… every few months someone catches up.

So what exactly is Anthropic’s moat?

They don’t own consumer distribution like OpenAI/Microsoft. They don’t own search or Android like Google. They don’t own the hardware like Nvidia. They don’t have Meta’s user base.

If AI models keep becoming commodities, I don’t see how Anthropic justifies one of the highest private valuations in the world. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the secondary market keeps repricing it lower.

Am I missing something, or is this one of the most obvious overvalued AI companies right now?

I know this is probably an unpopular take, but I think the market is massively overestimating Anthropic’s moat.

Bloomberg is reporting that DeepSeek is already preparing for an IPO after reportedly raising at around a $71B valuation, and they got there by showing you don’t necessarily need insane compute budgets to build frontier models.

Meanwhile, models are becoming more interchangeable. OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, Meta, xAI… every few months someone catches up.

So what exactly is Anthropic’s moat?

They don’t own consumer distribution like OpenAI/Microsoft. They don’t own search or Android like Google. They don’t own the hardware like Nvidia. They don’t have Meta’s user base.

If AI models keep becoming commodities, I don’t see how Anthropic justifies one of the highest private valuations in the world. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the secondary market keeps repricing it lower.

Am I missing something, or is this one of the most obvious overvalued AI companies right now?

Thinking to book my DRAM profits (~100% gains) and reinvest it elsewhere, what all should I look at?
Or should I invest it all back into VOO?

https://preview.redd.it/ia0021njym7h1.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=88312fb588108d2374919c9a016a7a2cf9bf422b

I was looking at ways for retail investors to invest in SpaceX before its IPO, and DXYZ (Destiny Tech100 Inc) caught my attention as it was looking very attractive on the surface: providing exposure to many interesting private companies like Anthropic (18.1%), SpaceX (14.5%), OpenAI (5.8%), among others.

After taking a closer look, my views changed completely. DXYZ is not a normal ETF. It is a closed-end fund (CEF). Unlike ETFs, CEFs tend to trade above or below the reported value of their holdings based on "popularity" and scarcity. We might be 100% right that Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are incredible companies, but we could still lose money buying DXYZ if the ~100% premium it currently trades at collapses, like it has in the past (see image).

https://preview.redd.it/alkhaima7w0h1.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c9cc0e9e2e945e7729e8bf8f23e4f265aeebe6c

But the high premium isn't the only concern:

• Lack of Transparency: Being a CEF that invests in private companies, it does not provide daily portfolio disclosure (like ETFs) and there is very limited visibility into holding value, terms involved, etc. as they involve SPVs, profit participation units, forward contracts, and multi-layer structures.
• Extremely high fees: The 2.5% management fee is only part of the story. Total expenses are much higher with several hidden charges (~4.5% as per Morningstar). This might also be understated, as SPVs tend to carry their own embedded fees which would affect total return.
• Cash Drag: As per the latest filing, over 30% is invested in a money market fund at less than 4% yield. So investors are paying a massive premium for a vehicle with a large cash-like position.
• The scarcity premium may not last forever. If companies like SpaceX or Anthropic eventually go public, investors may no longer be willing to pay such a huge markup just to access them indirectly.
• Highly volatile: Changes in premium lead to large price fluctuations, despite much changes at the holding level. (like the 25% drop yesterday)

My issue is not "private AI/Space is bad." My issue is that DXYZ looks like a complex fund with indirect exposure, high fees, cash drag, transfer-restriction risk, and a very large premium.
Curious if anyone here has looked at alternatives for private market exposure, and what your take is.

Not financial advice.

I was looking at ways for retail investors to invest in SpaceX before its IPO, and DXYZ (Destiny Tech100 Inc) caught my attention as it was looking very attractive on the surface: providing exposure to many interesting private companies like Anthropic (18.1%), SpaceX (14.5%), OpenAI (5.8%), among others.

After taking a closer look, my views changed completely. DXYZ is not a normal ETF. It is a closed-end fund (CEF). Unlike ETFs, CEFs tend to trade above or below the reported value of their holdings based on "popularity" and scarcity. We might be 100% right that Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are incredible companies, but we could still lose money buying DXYZ if the ~100% premium it currently trades at collapses, like it has in the past (see image).

https://preview.redd.it/peniqjyl4w0h1.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=1de34679a5e0e64bf03e9a6e0023bb7e9861fb2f

But the high premium isn't the only concern:

• Lack of Transparency: Being a CEF that invests in private companies, it does not provide daily portfolio disclosure (like ETFs) and there is very limited visibility into holding value, terms involved, etc. as they involve SPVs, profit participation units, forward contracts, and multi-layer structures.
• Extremely high fees: The 2.5% management fee is only part of the story. Total expenses are much higher with several hidden charges (~4.5% as per Morningstar). This might also be understated, as SPVs tend to carry their own embedded fees which would affect total return.
• Cash Drag: As per the latest filing, over 30% is invested in a money market fund at less than 4% yield. So investors are paying a massive premium for a vehicle with a large cash-like position.
• The scarcity premium may not last forever. If companies like SpaceX or Anthropic eventually go public, investors may no longer be willing to pay such a huge markup just to access them indirectly.
• Highly volatile: Changes in premium lead to large price fluctuations, despite much changes at the holding level. (like the 25% drop yesterday)

My issue is not "private AI/Space is bad." My issue is that DXYZ looks like a complex fund with indirect exposure, high fees, cash drag, transfer-restriction risk, and a very large premium.
Curious if anyone here has looked at alternatives for private market exposure, and what your take is.

Not financial advice.

Edit to address backlash: I did not mean to offend the Bullish investors. I totally agree memory plays a crucial role in AI ecosystem. I have been invested in memory stocks for a long time now. I am increasingly getting sceptical of the rising valuation and not the business itself. It is the most cyclical industry I have ever seen and that is why multiples have been so low.

Not financial advice.
The bullish case for DRAM/memory stocks is strong: AI demand is huge, HBM is supply-constrained, and companies like Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung are performing well.

The market seems to be treating today’s shortage as if it will become a permanent new normal. Maybe it will. But memory has historically been one of the most cyclical parts of semiconductors. When pricing is tight, margins explode. When supply catches up or demand pauses, margins can fall brutally fast.

My bearish view is not “DRAM companies are bad.” They are not. My view is that the stocks may be extrapolating peak conditions too far into the future.

Also, record margins are probably not normal margins.

Micron’s results showed massive revenue growth and very high gross margin guidance. SK hynix also reported operating margin ~72%. Those numbers are incredible, but it would not be fair to assume peak margins are permanent.

The trade is becoming crowded.

I’m not saying “short DRAM.” I’m saying I would be very careful buying if it was near its cyclical peak. Low P/E ratio is not always same as Cheap.

Not financial advice.
The bullish case for DRAM/memory stocks is strong: AI demand is huge, HBM is supply-constrained, and companies like Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung are performing well.

The market seems to be treating today’s shortage as if it will become a permanent new normal. Maybe it will. But memory has historically been one of the most cyclical parts of semiconductors. When pricing is tight, margins explode. When supply catches up or demand pauses, margins can fall brutally fast.

My bearish view is not “DRAM companies are bad.” They are not. My view is that the stocks may be extrapolating peak conditions too far into the future.

Also, record margins are probably not normal margins.

Micron’s results showed massive revenue growth and very high gross margin guidance. SK hynix also reported operating margin ~72%. Those numbers are incredible, but it would not be fair to assume peak margins are permanent.

The trade is becoming crowded.

I’m not saying “short DRAM.” I’m saying I would be very careful buying if it was near its cyclical peak. Low P/E ratio is not always same as Cheap.

It was on my watchlist but looks like I have missed the rally. Does it still make sense to buy into it or is the industry nearing its peak cycle?
I am considering it as a short-term investment and a <5% part of total portfolio. Please recommend.

https://preview.redd.it/cvqgwnubkpzg1.png?width=785&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec9d1d4a00674fc7c97e59199b7014140a6ec255