The EPAC ACE record of 319.26 from 2018 could fall in the next couple of days.
The most recent update has 2026 EPAC ACE at 307.9.
Rachel has maybe 1.5 ACE left in the tank leaving us 10 shy and if Simon holds to the forecast or exceeds it, then it seems that's enough to get 2026 over the top.
The strong El Nino stereotype is emerging in the statistics.
You are one person on a planet with over 8 billion. The inertia of exploitative capitalism and human industry is rapidly pushing Earth systems beyond tipping points which will commit human civilization to a massive involuntary population reduction. The people in power today got there as a result of their ruthlessness and willingness to exploit the environment. They have used their financial power to dominant every meaningful institution in the USA, including the media. There is no significant media presence in the USA where the truth of malignant capitalism is discussed.
Amid such a setting, it is very easy and even reasonable to arrive at a conclusion that you are powerless. The mere suggestion that you might have some power at your disposal to alter the trajectory of human civilization might be considered heretical. The ruthless people who are in power want you to believe that you are powerless and they spend a great deal of energy perpetuating that belief.
From a scientific standpoint, powerlessness is a hypothesis. The way to try and prove or disprove a hypothesis it is via experiment.
Background
Survival is the dominant force in the biological world. You and everyone else behave in ways which enhance your survival outlook. Going toe to toe with the most ruthless people on Earth is not conducive to our personal survival outlook. So we shrink from the confrontation. We complain about environmental destruction but we don't rally around an avatar who is willing to go toe to toe with the oligarchs.
The zeitgeist is shifting. Even people like Bill Gates are expressing existential fear about the potential for AI to morph into human extinction.
There is at least one human being out there who is willing to represent the majority preference for survival and go toe to toe with the Musk's, Zuckerbergs and Ellison's of the world. Someone willing to enforce laws which limit the liberty to pollute.
Experiment
Let's start with a very simple experiment which asks whether you want someone to have the authority to manage the chemistry of the atmosphere, oceans, water supply and soil in a manner which maximizes the survival outlook for humanity.
The answer should be an easy yes. There doesn't appear to be any other route to salvaging human civilization. There are too many perverse incentives to exploit the environment for personal short-term gain that it will be impossible to manage via voluntary cooperation. There must be a source of authority which is empowered to say no on behalf of the interests of the masses.
What We Need To Grieve
The inability to say respond yes to this question is exemplary of our fear. We want someone to take on the oligarchs but we choose to be bystanders because we don't want to be associated with the confrontation and recipients of the blowback.
We have the power to say yes. It just requires courage.
We need to grieve the version of ourselves which clings to powerlessness.
You are a member of the majority. Fear is a ubiquitous feature of humans. It's OK to be afraid. I'm afraid too. There is no opportunity for courageous action without the prerequisite of fear.
I'm interested in finding community which hasn't quit. People willing to find the synergy necessary to fight back. I think there's a lot of people looking for a home base to rally around.
17 - AW 2:02.88. KH 2:01.16
18 - AW 1:59.53, KH 2:01.73 (A Covid year with few events for KH)
19 - AW 1:58.13, KH 1:55.88 (Olympic final)
20 - AW 1:57.76, KH 1:56.38
21 - AW 1:55.91, KH 1:55.19
22 - AW 1:53.80, KH 1:54.61
23 - KH 1:54.74
24 - KH 1:54.33
Interesting comparison .... Keely made incredible progress in the year leading up to the 2021 Olympics, dropping almost 6 seconds off her PR in a single season and an additional 1.5 seconds over the last 5 years and now appears to have reached something of a peak / plateau.
Werro has made more progress in her early 20's. Will be interesting to see can squeeze out another second of improvement before she also reaches her peak at some point before long.
fwiw - Femke is 26. A late bloomer in the 800.
Josh Kerr ran a mile (1609.34m) at a pace equivalent to a 3:27.50 1500m. Only 6 men in history have ever run a 1500m at that pace and the world record is 3:26.00.
Kerr kept that pace going in a race that was 7.3% longer than a 1500m.
His 1200m time trial was run at a 3:22.50 1500m pace. Obviously, that can't be maintained over a full 1500, but it gives a clue as to how pace improves over shorter distance.
I'm in awe of what just took place. It brought me close to tears.
Who know what it will take to bring himself to a peak again for a 1500m. After so long pointing to the record breaker in London, does he need to rest and regroup or can he ride the peak a bit longer and apply it to the 1500?
Anyone know his 1500m schedule for the balance of the season ?
A group of players has filed a class action lawsuit related to eligibility for the class of '22. Argues that new rules discriminate against those 5th year students.
Group of 11 athletes challenge new NCAA eligibility rules in suit - ESPN
Looking forward into the future, there are many candidates for most durable world record in track and field.
Bolt's 100m time of 9:58. Warholm's sub 46 in the 400h. SML's 400h time if she doesn't try again herself. Crouser's shot put mark. Flo-Jo's 100 & 200. Powell's long jump. Anyone but Duplantis breaking the pole vault record. Sotomayor's high jump record.
My top 3, in no particular order, are men's 100m, HJ and LJ.
When it comes to the most likely, Duplantis is a league of his own in the pole vault. But even that is not certain.
The WR in the men's 110mh came out of nowhere, so there is no science to this, just fun to guess.
I think the men's 400m, 800m and 1,500m are the events where the competition (and shoe technology) is escalating toward a possible new record.
In the 400m, Ogazi just ran a 43.38 as a 20 year old. In the 2024 Olympic final, 5 runners finished under 43.8. He could be the first to go under 43.
The depth of young talent in the 400m and the emergence of Botswana as an equal rival to the US team makes it increasingly possible that the 4*400m relay record could go at the next Olympics.
In the 800m, Lutkenhaus and Wanyoni are the prime candidates and there is a deep field of competitors who keep the competition sharp.
In the 1500m (and mile), Ingebritsen's future health remains a wild card. Cole Hocker's 3:27.65 at the Olympics was a few tenths slower than it might have been had he not had to slow down and re-gather after he found himself boxed in. Ingebritsen and Nuguse both ran sub 3:44 miles a few years ago.
Hocker seems to have the fire in the belly .... but a WR will require a bit of magic on a special day.
The men's decathlon has some candidates coming into their physical primes in Neugebauer and Skotheim who have exceeded 8900 points.
On the women's side .... I'm imagining a fairy tale of SML breaking the women's 400m record at the 2028 Olympics.
And the competition between Werro and Hodgkinson seems to lead to the possibility of the women's 800m WR.
Who do you all imagine as being the next generation of world record holders ?
Obviously, during the final assault on King's Landing, Daenerys had a substantial army of Unsullied and Dothraki.
I'm wondering where they were during the battle with the Night King and the army of the dead that allowed them to survive. It looked like nearly everything and everyone outside the walls of Winterfell died with the obvious exceptions of Daenerys, Arya and Bran.
In my imagination, she could have decided to leave a reserve force at Dragonstone.
When I try to turn on my logitech camera, I get an error message saying that it's either disconnected or being used by another app.
When I click on the C920 in my Windows 11 device manager, it shows the camera is working there.