u/EpicDOgeMC

For context, I bought mid May, at around $5.9 a share, and sold $9 a share, because I believed it had entered a reasonable zone. Recent news have encouraged me to revisit the stock, and I have decided to buy back in.

The following analysis focuses on breaking down the stocks price, using 4 specific scenarios, forecasting their cashflows, and using a normal distribution to figure out what probabilities the market is assigning each situation.

My goal is to help us understand what outcomes exist and the odds at different price levels, not to really predict a perfect valuation.

1.TensorWave Breaks Down (Worse case scenario)
FRMI fails to convert the initial TensorWave agreement into a functioning operating campus due to delays, renegotiation, financing constraints, or customer failure. Existing land, generation assets, infrastructure, permits, and equipment retain some value, but the ~$1.55B of PP&E faces substantial impairment/restructuring risk. Long-term FCF settles around $0–25M.
Valuation: $0.75/share

2.Small Developer / Limited Survival
TensorWave partially materializes, but FRMI cannot scale Matador meaningfully. The company retains some infrastructure and power assets but faces heavy financing requirements and potential dilution, ultimately operating as a small specialized infrastructure developer. Normalized FCF of ~$50–75M/year, valued at roughly 10–12× FCF after accounting for capital structure/dilution.
Valuation: $2.50/share

3.222 MW Works, Then Stagnates
FRMI successfully delivers the initial 222 MW TensorWave campus, realizing the economics of the ~$6.5B / 15-year contract, but TensorWave does not expand materially and no second major customer emerges. The ~$433M/year headline contracted revenue includes turnkey development/construction economics, so normalized FCF is modeled at ~$250–300M/year after operating costs, corporate costs and recurring capex.
Valuation: $5.00/share

4.TensorWave Reaches ~650 MW
All three TensorWave phases are successfully developed, bringing the relationship toward ~650 MW. FRMI establishes a legitimate AI infrastructure campus but does not meaningfully expand beyond TensorWave. This implies roughly $1.2–1.3B of annualized contractual revenue equivalent, with normalized FCF of approximately $450–500M after depreciation, maintenance capex and financing costs.
Valuation: $8.00/share

5.Matador Reaches ~1–2 GW
TensorWave reaches ~650 MW and FRMI secures at least one additional large customer, bringing total contracted/operating capacity to roughly 1.2–1.6 GW. FRMI becomes a scaled AI infrastructure operator rather than a single-customer project. Normalized FCF reaches approximately $700M–$1.0B, after accounting for additional capital requirements and financing/dilution.
Valuation: $14.00/share

6. Matador Becomes a 2–3+ GW Platform
   FRMI successfully executes multiple large customer contracts and scales Matador to roughly 2–3+ GW of contracted/operating capacity. Customer validation and successful execution improve financing access, allowing more development to occur at the project level and reducing dependence on corporate equity. Normalized FCF reaches approximately $1.5–2.0B.
   Valuation: $28.00/share

7.FRMI Becomes a Scaled AI Infrastructure Platform (Blue Sky situation)
Matador scales to roughly 5–7 GW with multiple hyperscaler/AI customers, while FRMI proves the model is repeatable beyond the initial TensorWave relationship. Project-level financing becomes increasingly available, allowing FRMI to develop substantially more capacity without proportional corporate dilution. FCF ramps from -$600M in 2027, -$400M in 2028, +$500M in 2029, +$2.0B in 2030, to ~$3.5B in 2031 and beyond. Long-term growth is modeled at ~3%.
Valuation: $55.00/share

Market-Implied Distribution at $6.40/share, normalized centrally
TensorWave breaks down → $0.75 → 25.1%

Small developer / limited survival -> $2.50 -> 22.6%

222 MW works, then stagnates -> $5.00 -> 19.4%

TensorWave reaches ~650 MW -> $8.00 -> 16.1%

Matador reaches ~1–2 GW -> $14.00 -> 11.2%

Matador becomes a 2–3+ GW platform -> $28.00 -> 4.7%

FRMI becomes a scaled AI infrastructure platform -> $55.00 -> 0.9%

Value of FRMI depends on what you think these probabilities fall out to. Personally, I believe the market is being far overly pessimistic at this level, and I am back in.

I have loved everything I have done with finance so far. My courses have come super naturally to me and been really enjoyable, I’m on the board at my schools investment fund and I love researching and pitching stocks, I’ve done a competition which was great, VC and a PE internship, loved them both. Prob gonna shoot for IB. I don’t mind pressure, I like working a lot, and finance clicks with me.

But, I hear so many people talk about how they thought that it was perfect for them, that they would thrive in IB, and regret it later on. How should I weigh my options? How do you really know your fit for something?

I’m also late (former pre-law student that changed paths last second), so still recruiting for whatever I can get 2027 - so I might re recruit for grad 2028, which means less time to really test out a place.

50% VTI
30% VXUS
12% AVUV
8% AVDV
SGOV for emergency fund

I have spent a lot of time over the past few months synthesizing academic papers, listing out known strategies, applying tests to them, and stress testing theories. From what I can tell, based off the most objective theories, this is basically the most efficient possible for maximizing expected long term return. Ultimate diversification with US/International split for tax credit, and a specific factor tilt (only compensated risk).

The other 40% is 5% safety fund, and the rest actively managed (quality/compounder focused, mix of international/US). I have a very long term time frame given how young I am. Is there any reason not to introduce those funds as factor tilts?

Context: Just finished sophomore year, interested in IB/AM. Got into the game quite late (Entered school focused on pre-law, finally decided to transition fully over to finance during last winter break, had no clue what I was doing going into recruiting as I knew nobody in finance.)

I transitioned to finance fast - Joined my schools investment fund, excelled in it and got to compete and win a pitch comp, and I am now a leader for it. I landed a remote VC internship last semester, and a PE internship this summer. Not at a target school - but at least recognizable and with a decent alumni network.

I managed to get to a couple final rounds for some really solid positions for 2027, all fell through. Feel like I am out of options even though I worked my *ss off last semester. The one thing I have going for me is a decent sector niche - most of my experience has been in energy/infrastructure. I have a solid network for a broad range of finance roles now, but my connections are either at internships who have passed deadlines, or for less related companies.

I do have a pretty open mind for considering roles across Buyside/Sellside. I am considering focusing more on my niche - I have a decent shot at an internship at the DOE next semester, and solid connections with a pretty decent level investment advisor firm (focused on policy & energy) that I could go for 2027, and try to recruit hard for full time roles within energy IB/PE/ER.

Thoughts?