u/External-Lie-8249

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Made a scoring mistake today, caught it, and I think it's a common one.

I log large options prints on NSE and mark each one from the flag to the next session's close. Friday's flags marked at Monday's close: 413 readable prints.

First pass I scored every flag as if you had BOUGHT the option. Result: 22% up, 78% down. Looked terrible.

Then I split by aggressor - which side actually crossed the spread to get filled:

Buyer-side: 52.2% of prints. 19.3% went their way.

Seller-side: 44.5% of prints. 75.8% went their way.

For a writer, the premium FALLING is the win. Scoring a sell-side print as a buy counts a writer's profitable decay as a loss.

Scored properly, by side: 45.3%, not 22%.

Concrete example from Friday:

VOLTAS 1340 PE - bought at 42.85, closed 82.35. +92% for the buyer.

VOLTAS 1320 CE - written at 46.75, closed 6.60. +86% for the writer. Score that as a buy and it reads as -86%.

Same stock, adjacent strikes, both flagged, both worked - for opposite sides.

A lot of the seller-side wins were just weekend theta, three calendar days Friday to Monday.

The general point: if you read options flow anywhere, check whether the source knows which side crossed the spread. If it doesn't, "unusual activity" is volume with a label on it.

One feed, one venue, premium change only - not advice.

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I've been logging every large options print on NSE and grading it. 161 symbols, 1 July to 14 August, 32 sessions, 13,791 prints. Sharing the part nobody publishes.

For each print I asked two independent questions.

1. Did the tape show who crossed the spread?

Clean read: 57.4%

Low confidence (quote was stale at the print, side may be inverted): 38.1%

No aggressor visible at all: 4.5%

2. Did open interest move consistently with a NEW position?

Confirmed: 57.8%

Standard: 23.0%

Divergent (OI moved the wrong way): 16.6%

Stale OI: 2.7%

Both bars cleared together: 29.1%.

The divergent bucket is the interesting one. One print in six was large and aggressive while open interest moved the wrong way for a fresh position - consistent with someone CLOSING, not opening. Same trade on the tape, close to the opposite meaning.

Limits, because they matter more than the headline:

- No external verification. These are observations from one broker feed. I do not currently have a working comparison against NSE's published end-of-day data, so none of this is an accuracy rate.

- It says nothing about returns. Detection is not prediction.

- Population, not a sample - but the detectors have size floors, so this is large unusual prints, not all NSE options activity.

- Readability is getting WORSE: clean reads fell from 60.2% in July to 53.6% in August. I don't have a confident explanation yet.

Posting it because every tool shows you what it detected and none of them show you how often they couldn't tell.

Logging large NSE options prints intraday. This morning's opening stretch had an unusually concentrated burst, and it's checkable, so posting it.

Between 09:21 and 09:24, three separate accumulations in NIFTY calls, all in the 18 Aug expiry:

- 24300 CE — ₹72.76 Cr, 85,649 lots, 09:21

- 24350 CE — ₹54.58 Cr, 83,133 lots, 09:23

- 24400 CE — ₹45.92 Cr, 90,895 lots, 09:24

₹173 crore across three adjacent strikes in about three minutes.

The reason I'll use the word "bought" here, which I normally won't: all three printed with the aggressor on the ASK — lifted at the offer, not hit on the bid — and open interest confirmed all three as fresh positions rather than closes. That's two independent gates. Most prints don't clear both, and when they don't, the honest answer is that you cannot tell who was on which side, so I don't guess.

Context for the size: the whole opening stretch (09:15–09:38) carried ₹607.8 Cr across 37 big prints, so this burst was a bit under a third of it.

What I'm NOT claiming:

- That it worked out. NIFTY closed at 24,441 today, which is roughly where it was when these printed. Whether these paid depends entirely on entry and exit, and I don't know either.

- That it's smart money, or a signal, or that you should do anything. Big and fast isn't the same as right. Plenty of large prints go nowhere.

- Anything about who placed them. Ask-side tells you the aggressor lifted the offer. It doesn't tell you whether that was an institution, a hedge against something else, or one leg of a structure.

Timestamps and strikes are all above if anyone wants to pull the same data and check it.

Not advice.

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Been pulling NSE single-stock option OI daily and the standard "OI gainers" view has a blind spot worth knowing about.

Almost every screener — NSE's own OI Spurts included — ranks by contracts added. But a contract isn't a fixed amount of money. Lot sizes vary enormously (IDEA is 71,475 per lot, RELIANCE a few hundred) and premiums run from paise to tens of rupees. So a strike trading at ₹0.47 and one at ₹57 count exactly the same.

Today, 14 Aug, stock options only, indices excluded:

RANKED BY CONTRACTS ADDED

- RELIANCE 1320 CE +4,723

- RELIANCE 1310 CE +2,963

- BSE 3500 CE +2,726

- BHARTIARTL 2020 CE +2,635

- RELIANCE 1330 CE +2,410

- ASHOKLEY 180 CE +2,402

RANKED BY MONEY ADDED (contracts x lot size x premium)

- BSE 3500 CE — ₹3.11 Cr (OI 6,195 to 8,921, +44%)

- BDL 1400 CE — ₹2.37 Cr (OI 1,736 to 3,185, +83%)

- RELIANCE 1320 CE — ₹2.31 Cr (OI 10,272 to 14,995, +46%)

- IDEA 14 PE — ₹2.27 Cr (OI 1,833 to 3,216, +75%)

- RELIANCE 1310 CE — ₹2.09 Cr (OI 3,373 to 6,336, +88%)

- BHARTIARTL 2000 PE — ₹1.63 Cr (OI 931 to 2,377, +155%)

Two things fall out of that.

The contract list is 6 calls out of 6. The money list has two puts in it. Scan only the first list and you'd conclude the day was one-directional — and the second-biggest put buildup by money, BHARTIARTL 2000 PE up 155%, was invisible to you.

BDL doesn't appear on the contract list at all but is #2 by money: fewer contracts, much higher premium.

Earlier in the session the gap was wider still. The #1 OI gainer at that point was WIPRO 200 CE at ₹0.47 — about ₹39 lakh of premium. Top of the list, and roughly a sixth of the actual leader.

Caveats, because this is easy to over-read:

1. Neither ranking tells you direction. OI rising on calls can be buying or writing, and the tape doesn't show which side the aggressor was on. This is "where money went", not "what someone thinks".

2. Money added isn't conviction. Some is hedging, some is one leg of a spread whose other leg sits elsewhere.

3. I'm using end-of-day premium times the change in OI, which is an approximation — the position built through the day at varying prices.

Not advice, just a methodology note. If your screener lets you sort by value instead of contracts, you get a noticeably different picture.

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I log large options prints on NSE (single trades and accumulations above ₹0.5 Cr notional) and grade them from the flag price to the next session's close. Tuesday's flags, measured at Wednesday's close:

NATIONALUM 390 CE — ₹9.35 to ₹31.00 (+232%), flagged 3:09pm Tue

ZYDUSLIFE 1150 CE — ₹34.05 to ₹63.25 (+86%)

ADANIGREEN 1380 PE — ₹45.15 to ₹63.70 (+41%)

HDFCAMC 2600 PE — ₹87.95 to ₹117.00 (+33%)

SBIN 1050 CE — ₹44.00 to ₹55.65 (+26%)

The part I find genuinely interesting: ZYDUSLIFE was already Tuesday's top same-day mover at +82%, and it kept extending on Wednesday. That day-1-into-day-2 follow-through keeps showing up — a name that ranks one session often ranks again the next with a bigger number.

Caveat I'd rather state myself than have someone state it for me: this is the winners list. Plenty of flagged trades finished red — most intraday-flagged premium closes lower, because theta. It's a positioning read, not a track record, and not a recommendation.

Does anyone else here track flow persistence? Curious whether the day-2 follow-through holds up in your data or whether I'm just describing survivorship.

Logged 595 large options prints today (₹1,832 Cr notional). Best premium moves from the flag to the close:

BHARTIARTL 1940 CE +169% (₹15.95 to ₹42.95, flagged 3:09pm)

NATIONALUM 400 CE +101% (₹11.50 to ₹23.15, 9:15am)

SENSEX 77800 CE +70% (₹203.20 to ₹344.45, 11:03am)

NIFTY 24300 CE +23% (₹170.80 to ₹210.55, 11:05am)

INFY 1180 PE +19% (₹19.00 to ₹22.65, 9:33am)

4 of the top 5 were call buys. Confirmed flow across the whole day ran ₹531 Cr bullish vs ₹467 Cr bearish, so the call-side tilt showed up in the aggregate too, not just in the winners.

Before anyone asks: yes, this is the winners board. The same log has flags that finished deep red — theta doesn't care about anyone's conviction. I post these because the size and timing are interesting, not because chasing them is a strategy.

BHARTIARTL is the one worth staring at — a single print at 3:09pm, and it nearly tripled by the bell.

I log large options prints on NSE (single trades and accumulations above ₹0.5 Cr notional) and grade them from the flag price to the next session's close. Tuesday's flags, measured at Wednesday's close:

NATIONALUM 390 CE — ₹9.35 to ₹31.00 (+232%), flagged 3:09pm Tue

ZYDUSLIFE 1150 CE — ₹34.05 to ₹63.25 (+86%)

ADANIGREEN 1380 PE — ₹45.15 to ₹63.70 (+41%)

HDFCAMC 2600 PE — ₹87.95 to ₹117.00 (+33%)

SBIN 1050 CE — ₹44.00 to ₹55.65 (+26%)

The part I find genuinely interesting: ZYDUSLIFE was already Tuesday's top same-day mover at +82%, and it kept extending on Wednesday. That day-1-into-day-2 follow-through keeps showing up — a name that ranks one session often ranks again the next with a bigger number.

Caveat I'd rather state myself than have someone state it for me: this is the winners list. Plenty of flagged trades finished red — most intraday-flagged premium closes lower, because theta. It's a positioning read, not a track record, and not a recommendation.

Does anyone else here track flow persistence? Curious whether the day-2 follow-through holds up in your data or whether I'm just describing survivorship.

Been tracking large NSE options flow. SBIN's escalation this week:

Mon: ₹2.7 Cr flagged, mostly 1040 CE — quiet

Tue: ₹8.5 Cr, 1060 CE — stirring

Wed: ₹75 Cr — but SELL-dominant. Call writers were capping it at 1080/1090

Thu (today): ₹109 Cr, decisively buy-side — calls laddered 1020 through 1120, biggest print ₹7.15 Cr in 1080 CE at 2:01pm. The 1120 CE added 6,247 lots of fresh OI at 2:56pm.

And Wednesday's call writers? The 1090 CE they were selling at ~₹15 closed today above ₹30.

The wrinkle: last hour, ~₹10 Cr of PUT buying appeared at 1100/1120 with fresh OI. Hedging the ladder? Strangle into PSU bank results?

Strike migration 1040→1120 in four days looks like a desk following the stock up with a plan. What am I looking at?