




What Happened to Chess.com Ratings? I Analyzed 348,890 Rapid Games from 2016 to 2026.
>>> Link to Full, Published Google Doc <<<
Conclusion / TL;DR / Spoilers
- Does Move Quality Correlate with Rating?
- The correlation between move quality (measured by median ACPL) and rating is overall very strong, but has been on a slight downward trend between 2021 and 2026.
- Is There Rating Inflation or Deflation?
- Both “rating inflation” and “rating deflation” are true if they strictly mean comparing against the performance of same-rated historical players, but on opposite ends of the rating distribution.
- Is the Player Base More Beginner-Heavy Now? Or Is the Pool Just Stronger Now?
- The player base in 2026 is overwhelmingly composed of beginner-level players by move quality, whereas pre-COVID it was made up of a small group of chess nerds whose median player was more of an intermediate-level player. Nowadays the median rapid player is a beginner-level player, who would have fallen into about the 10th percentile in 2016 based on move quality.
- How Do Low-Rated Players Compare to Historical Ones?
- Modern players rated <1000 do play much stronger when compared to same-rated historical players. However, the practical floor has also moved down a few hundred points from ~400 to 100.
- How Do Intermediate Players Compare to Historical Ones?
- The 1000-1400 segment is a sort of “inflection point” where the relationship between move quality and rating has stayed fairly similar over time.
- How Do Club Players and Experts Compare to Historical Ones?
- Players rated 1400-2300 actually play a bit weaker on average when compared to historical same-rated players. Ratings of 2400+ were not included in the study.
- When Did the Rating Shift Happen?
- The biggest shift in the relationship between move quality and player rating occurred between 2020 and 2021, which lines up with both an overwhelming surge in new Chess.com players and Chess.com’s introduction of self-selected starting ratings.
- Is Elo Hell Real?
- If “Elo Hell” refers to players having similar ratings but playing with wildly differing strengths, its existence is not supported by the move-quality distribution data.
- What Separates Strong Players from Weak Ones?
- The largest measured separator between weak players and strong players is avoiding large CPL moves, which are often tactical blunders or missed tactics. 100-rated players play moves equivalent to blundering a minor piece or worse about 8 times as often as a 2300-rated player.
- Does the Chess.com Rating System Need an Overhaul?
- The data did not support the need for a rating reset or adjustment for Chess.com’s rapid pool. Our understanding of which rating numbers correspond to which playing strengths may need to be tweaked slightly.