u/General-Knowledge999

u/Binkybinkovsky Here are some Ashkenazi models I remade briefly in Vahaduo. I used the C6 Italy_Imperial coords to represent the South European ancestry in one model, and the output aligns with the usual results when using that source. Some of us on this site previously discussed a French source as the dominant European ancestry, so I am including one model with an antiquity-era French source and one model with both sources.

TLDR: Qpadm was used to model the Jew_Iranian.HO sample from the Human Origins dataset. Around 70 runs total were completed. These are the best of those runs. The statistically strongest models were achieved with the two way models you see below. Note that the Bahrain genetic samples used in the models are genetically closest to ancient Mesopotamian samples. The runs with Levantine components were not as strongly supported as the two way models below.

Two way models (statistically the strongest):

Model: Jew_Iranian.HO
Sources: Bahrain_LTyLos_Sasanian 84.1%, Turkey_Central_Kalehoyuk_AssyrianColonyPeriod 15.9%
p = 0.786
chisq = 7.99
Status: PASS
Analysis: It has a very high p-value, good chisq, and both components are supported. It is also simple because it is only a 2-way model. The Bahrain/Tylos source captures the main ancestry, while the Kalehoyuk Assyrian Colony source adds a meaningful secondary Anatolian/Northern Mesopotamian-like component.

Model: Jew_Iranian.HO
Sources: Bahrain_LTyLos_Sasanian 85.7%, Turkey_BlackSea_Samsun_Ancient_A 14.3%
p = 0.786
chisq = 7.99
Status: PASS
Analysis: This is statistically a good 2-way model. The Turkey_BlackSea_Samsun source is a little less directly interpretable for Jew_Iranian than the Assyrian Colony Period source. Still, it is a strong model.

Model: Jew_Iranian.HO
Sources: Bahrain_LTyLos_Sasanian 85.4%, Turkey_Central_Kalehoyuk_OldHittitePeriod 14.6%
p = 0.672
chisq = 9.36
Status: PASS
Analysis: This passes comfortably, and the secondary Turkey/Kalehoyuk Old Hittite component is meaningful. It is usable, but not the best of the batch.

Three way models: Statistically weaker than the two way models. The smaller components (Levant, Armenia, Georgia) are not strongly supported.

Model: Jew_Iranian.HO
Sources: Bahrain_EMTylos_SeleucidCharacene 65.2%, Georgia_Nazarlebi_LBA_lc 12.3%, Lebanon_IA2 22.5%
p = 0.723
chisq = 5.32
Status: PASS
Analysis: The p-value is high and the chisq is low, so the statistical fit is strong. The main caution is that the smaller Georgia and Lebanon components are not strongly supported, so the exact 12.3% and 22.5% values should be treated cautiously.

Model: Jew_Iranian.HO
Sources: Bahrain_EMTylos_SeleucidCharacene 57.2%, Armenia_Dzori_Gekh_LBA 23.9%, Lebanon_EjJaouze_Phoenician 18.9%
p = 0.702
chisq = 8.13
Status: PASS
Analysis: This is a good 3-way model and gives a more detailed breakdown: Bahrain/Characene-like, Armenian/Caucasus-like, and Phoenician/Levantine-like. The fit is good, but the Lebanon_EjJaouze component is not as strongly supported as the main Bahrain component, so the exact percentage should be treated cautiously.

Model: Jew_Iranian.HO
Sources: Bahrain_EMTylos_SeleucidCharacene 71.9%, Georgia_Nazarlebi_LBA_lc 14.7%, Israel_Ashkelon_IA2 13.4%
p = 0.777
chisq = 7.27
Status: PASS
Analysis: This has one of the highest p-values in the batch, so the raw fit is strong. However, the Georgia and Ashkelon components are weaker than the main Bahrain component, especially the Ashkelon component.

In qpAdm, the p-value indicates whether the model is rejected or not; generally, p > 0.05 is considered a passing model, while a higher p-value means the model is a more comfortable fit.

The chisq value measures how much mismatch there is between the proposed model and the genetic data, so lower chisq is generally better when comparing similar models using the same Right/outgroup set. The weights are the estimated ancestry proportions assigned to each source population.

The SE, or standard error, shows how uncertain each weight is; smaller SE means the percentage is more stable, while large SE means the exact percentage should be treated cautiously.

The Z-score is roughly the weight divided by its SE, and it shows how strongly that source is supported in the model; higher Z-scores, especially around 2 or above, suggest the component is more meaningful, while very low Z-scores can mean the source is weak, unstable, or not really required.

These qpAdm results should still be read as proxy models rather than literal ancestry percentages, because ancient samples are being used to represent broader ancestry streams rather than exact direct ancestors.

Edit: The images for these runs are best viewed within the Reddit app on a smartphone. The resolution is poor on desktop view using laptop or Chrome/ Firefox.

using the Mizrahi Jew calculator