u/Go_Terence_Davis

100T map pool:

1. Breeze (4-1)
2. Fracture (1-0)
3. Split (2-1)
4. Haven (2-2)
5. Pearl (1-2)
6. Ascent (0-0)
7. Lotus (0-2)

NRG map pool:

1. Haven (2-0)
2. Lotus (3-1)
3. Fracture (2-0)
4. Breeze (2-1)
5. Pearl (1-2)
6. Ascent (0-0)
7. Split (0-2)

1: NRG bans Split, 100T bans Lotus

These have been these teams' ban the last couple games. With NRG being decent on Lotus and 100T being decent on Split, seems like a no-brainer.

2: NRG picks Haven, 100T picks Breeze

Now, with NRG almost 13-0'ing 100T on Breeze a couple days ago, you might think that this is a weird pick. But since then, 100T have changed up their comp and have gone 3-0 since then on the map. Breeze is also one of NRG's worse maps imo; I think 100T would not want to play into Fracture or Pearl. The only other option is for them to try Ascent and surprise NRG, but I'm leaning to them picking into Breeze.

For NRG, Haven is possibly their best map so far, they're 2-0 in playoffs on it (against good teams in FUR and KRU) after somehow avoiding it the entire regular season. 100T's Haven is decent, but you're not going to get much better.

3: NRG bans Ascent, 100T bans Pearl

NRG would love to have one of Pearl and Fracture as the last maps. 100T would probably prefer Fracture, as even though NRG have lost twice, they're historically good on Pearl (7-3 this year). Fracture is a smaller sample size for both teams and 100T have just come off of a good victory over MIBR.

4: Decider: Fracture

Thoughts?

1. His defensive role.

I saw him start the play guarding Allen a lot of times. What's more, Allen rarely chose to directly attack him. My question is, is this something like RJ is actually strong enough to match up against Cs on defense? Or is this a specific anti-strat to counter Cleveland's pick-and-rolls? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, I was just curious about this point.

2. His 3-pt shooting.

On a pretty high sample size (44 attempts, just over 6 a game), Barrett was our best shooter from deep (38.6%), a step above his regular season average (around 34%). Is this more of his regular, or just a high that might not necessarily be sustained?

anyone know when those come out? my CS one is in but i want to double major with stats and that hasn’t come yet

Firstly, this is a matrix showing the approximate probabilities of each team getting each seed:

seed matrix

Note that these depend on the probability of each match being won derived from VLR betting odds. They are not the most accurate but I thought it a bit more fair than 50/50s.

The odds are:

NRG 61.9% - 38.1% SEN

FUR 61.7% - 38.3% 100T (so, the probability of FUR winning one map is 57.9% after some maths. This will prove useful since this match is the only one that the margin of victory matters)

KRU 72.0% - 28.0% EG

So now, I will detail the ways each team can acquire each seed.

KRU

Very simple. They get 1st with a win and 2nd with a loss.

FUR

This one is actually pretty complicated.

Firstly, they can get 1st if KRU loses to EG and they win.

They can also drop to 4th ONLY IF KRU win, SEN win, and they lose 0-2 to 100T.

in ALL OTHER SCENARIOS they are 2/3 seed. Specifically, they are 2nd seed if KRU wins and they win, or if KRU wins, NRG wins, and they only lose 1-2. Otherwise, they are 3rd.

Thus, they might be inclined to cheer for NRG as they do slightly better then, and obviously cheer for EG.

100T

This might be the hardest one.

Firstly, they are locked 5th if they lose (since SEN and NRG own tiebreakers against them).

They can secure 1st seed with a win and a KRU loss.

The last scenario is a win and a KRU win. Here, the result depends on the NRG-SEN game and the margin of victory against FUR:

- If NRG wins and 100T 2-0, then they get 2nd seed.

- If SEN wins and 100T only 2-1, then they get 4th seed.

- Otherwise, they get 3rd seed.

SEN

Relatively simple.

They are 5th only if they lose AND 100T wins.

They get 2nd seed only if KRU, 100T, and SEN all win.

They get 3rd seed if FUR and SEN wins.

They get 4th otherwise.

NRG

Relatively simple.

They are 5th only if they lose AND 100T wins.

They are 3rd with a win and a 100T loss.

They are 4th otherwise.

EG

They can only be 6th.

I should have the tiebreakers and stuff correct, let me know if there is any mistakes. This is the reference table im going off of:

Made this manually on a notebook and copied it over. should be correct