Tesla may possibly be switching back to US builds, at least for the Y (unconfirmed)
Canada and US reached a "deal" tonight before the deadline of 50% tariffs set to take place midnight. The deal includes a lot of stuff, but I'm focusing on automotive (obviously).
I want to make it clear: the details of the deal are not yet confirmed and there is nothing confirming whether the deal actually changed automotive tariffs. Take it with a grain of salt. However, the reason I make this post is because a big part of the deal was the ask to reduce tariffs on vehicles going both ways. Canada wanted 15% tariffs on vehicles (reduced from the current 25%) and the US wanted vehicles to use parts built in the US. A "deal" being reached means it is highly likely that automotive tariff reduction was a part of it.
The following section of the post will assume that the tariffs on vehicles have been reduced to a percentage at which it makes logistical sense for Tesla to switch their operations to the US.
What does this mean for Tesla?
- The switch of the Model Y Premium AWD and Standard RWD coming from Giga Berlin to coming from a US factory. Even with tariffs, it is logistically easier to get it from the US and it is cheaper car to use land than to ship overseas
- Addition of more Model Y variants, likely Model Y Premium RWD. Other variants may be added depending on if it makes financial sense. The trims available in the states are: Model Y Standard RWD and AWD, Model Y Premium RWD and AWD, Model Y Performance, and Model Y L
- Change in pricing. The current Model 3 and Model Y performance may or may not see a price reduction, the cybertruck will likely see a price reduction. Model Y Premium AWD may or may not see a reduction, as the current price is already cheaper as it is in the US.
- Reduced wait times as they will be able to come from the US
- The Model 3 will likely continue to come from China in hopes to use up the quota and hold of chinese brands from entering. It will eventually switch back to the US when the quota is used up and/or when it does not make logistical sense for Tesla to continue bringing the 3 from China.
- Considering that both the 3 and Y will switch back to the US, it is possible that Tesla reserves the chinese market exclusively for bringing the Model Y L to Canada. It is already hard for Tesla to fulfill Model Y L orders in the US, so it doesn't make sense for Tesla to bring them from the US especially as they can choose to bring it from China.
- If you currently have a Model Y on order and have a long time until your EDD, it is possible that your car may come from the US instead of Germany. If your EDD is in late this year, it is possible that you will get the car earlier.
I again want to make it clear: the details of the deal are not yet confirmed and there is nothing confirming whether the deal actually changed automotive tariffs. All the points listed above are a hypothesis and not actually confirmed. Do not base your decision off of this post.