Not looking for strategies or entries.

I'm curious about the boring rules that actually keep profitable traders profitable.

Mine is that once I know I'm emotionally trying to make money back instead of trading my setup I'm done for the day. Took me way too many blown accounts to actually respect that. I also take any major day (birthday, anniversary, etc..) off because I do not want it taking away my fpcus and causiung me to do stupid things and also ruin my important day.

If you've been consistently profitable for a while what's the one rule you absolutely refuse to break anymore?

I'll compile the best answers into one post afterward to our traders on this sub!

September has officially been my worst trading month of the year and this trade is a pretty good example of why.

The setup itself was my normal ERL → IRL model.

We flushed NY and Asia SSL, traded into a Daily FVG, displaced aggressively back to the upside and formed a fresh 4H FVG. There was also clear external liquidity above that I was using as my DOL.

So structurally I liked the long.

I entered off the 4H FVG and lost $612.50 X 5

Normally I'd be completely fine with that. A valid setup can lose and I'll take the same setup again tomorrow.

But when I journaled this one afterward, the problem became pretty obvious.

The setup was valid but my timing wasn't.

I took this during the Sunday session after NQ had already rallied hard the previous week. Instead of letting Sunday/Monday develop and seeing how price actually reacted around the FVG, I basically tried to front-run the entire weekly idea.

That's a rule break for me.

That's why I tagged the trade unplanned, bad time, Sunday session and poor execution in my journal instead of blaming ERL → IRL.

There's a huge difference between:

Good setup + good execution + loss

and

Good setup + bad execution + loss

The first one doesn't bother me at all. The second one needs to be fixed.

This also nearly cooked the new 5 × $25K prop accounts I'm working on, so definitely not the start I wanted lol.

I'm keeping the loss in the series though. September has been rough and I'd rather show the shitty trades alongside the payouts and winners.

I'm also going to keep tracking this setup separately in TradeZella because ERL → IRL has historically been one of my strongest models. One badly executed trade doesn't suddenly invalidate the data behind it.

I wanted to post this before the week develops because this is the exact map I’m working from right now.

Thursday flushed Wednesday’s lows, took sell side liquidity and then displaced aggressively back higher. That displacement left a clean 4H FVG.

Price has now rotated back into that 4H FVG and respected it well so far.

The way I’m reading it is pretty simple.

We already took a meaningful ERL at the highs, then price delivered back into IRL. If this 4H FVG continues to hold, I’m looking for another expansion higher into the next external liquidity.

Upside levels I’m watching

• 30,950 first major ERL
• 31,095 larger external liquidity and the next major DOL

Current IRL

• Roughly 30,810 to 30,840 is the 4H FVG price has returned into
• This is the 4H FVG created by Thursday’s displacement
• This is the area I want to see continue holding for the bullish scenario

So the current sequence is basically:

ERL taken → displacement → 4H IRL created → retracement into IRL → potential expansion toward next ERL

That said, I’m not treating the long side like a guarantee.

There is still larger HTF internal liquidity underneath price.

If this current 4H FVG fails, the next areas I’m watching are:

• 30,682
• 30,490
• The lower Daily FVG below the weekly FVG 29,646
• The larger Weekly FVG around 29,003

That deeper move would not automatically kill the larger bullish idea for me. It could simply be price reaching for deeper HTF IRL before another expansion higher.

That’s the main thing I’m watching this week.

If the current IRL holds, I’m looking toward 30,950 and 31,095.

If it fails, I stop forcing the bullish idea and let price seek the deeper Daily or Weekly imbalance first.

I’m already in the trade from the 4H FVG and I’ll update this whether the idea works or completely fails.

Curious how everyone else is reading NQ here.

The last book is one of my absolute favorites and not only it helped me with trading, it also gave me a new perspective on life,

Some honorable mentions: Trading in the zone, Ikigai, One good trade and The Inner Game of Tennis are worth a read.

What books would you add to this and why? Drop it in the comments

A few days ago I posted an update showing my $117K+ in prop firm payouts and the two setups I've stuck with through most of it. That post somehow did over 320K views, and a bunch of people asked me to actually explain the setups instead of just showing the results.

So I recorded the first one.

This video breaks down my ERL → IRL model, which has been my strongest setup recently and the one I use for the larger moves on NQ.

The basic idea is pretty simple. I look for price to take external liquidity like a weekly, daily or session high/low, then I want real displacement away from that liquidity that creates an HTF FVG. That FVG becomes my IRL and instead of chasing the displacement I wait for price to retrace back into it.

From there I'm looking for expansion toward the next external liquidity.

ERL taken → displacement → IRL created → retracement → next ERL

I also go through how I combine this with ICT weekly bias theory, how I determine my stop, why I normally use the 30m/1H/4H for entries and why I usually take a fixed 1R to 2R instead of trying to catch the entire move.

I included an actual recent trade in the video so you can see the whole thing play out instead of just looking at a diagram.

I'm doing the 15 minute ORB + FVG as the next video since that's the other main setup I trade.

If anything in the video doesn't make sense just ask below and I'll try to explain it trader to trader.

This is probably the cleanest A+ setup I've had in a while and I'm still in it as I'm writing this. Currently sitting around +$450 open P&L and holding for my fixed 2R.

I know the market has been dumping lately so going long here probably looks questionable at first. But I'm not trying to blindly call a bottom. This lined up almost perfectly with the ICT weekly bias theory and my ERL → IRL model.

Monday into Tuesday gave us the accumulation. Tuesday initially looked like it might set the low of the week but instead we got the stop hunt. Wednesday then went lower and swept weekly SSL daily SSL and Asia SSL before giving us the reaction I was waiting for.

After taking all that SSL we got real displacement back higher on both the 30 minute and 1 hour and that displacement left clean HTF FVGs behind.

Now I had pretty much everything I wanted.

Liquidity had been taken. We had HTF displacement away from it. We had a fresh IRL created by that displacement. The weekly profile supported expansion higher and there was very obvious external liquidity above giving me a clear DOL.

Price eventually retraced almost perfectly into the 1H/30M FVG and gave me the entry. Because I consider this one of my A+ setups I was comfortable risking 1% to make 2% instead of taking one of my smaller base hits.

The entire sequence was basically:

Weekly Daily and Asia SSL taken → HTF displacement → IRL created → retracement into the FVG → expansion toward external liquidity

This is also only my second trade of the week and there's a pretty good chance I'm done after this regardless of what happens. I'd rather take two trades that look like this than manufacture ten mediocre setups because I'm bored.

I've also been using TradeZella to Manually/Automate some backtesting eith this setup and have spent some good time tweaking it, here it is if you want to check it out:

Manual + Automated Backtesting

The screenshot attached is from the cash account I recently opened specifically to trade these setups.

So far my ERL → IRL trades are my clear best performer with $3,133.90 net P&L across 9 trades. My Forever Model has produced another $1,036.52, while my 15 minute ORB has basically gone nowhere at +$82.96 across 10 trades. (these are the results on my new cash account)

I'm still holding this one for the full 2R so we'll see whether it delivers. Win or lose I'm happy with the execution because this is exactly the type of trade I want to be taking.

If you guys want me to make a full video breakdown of this exact ERL → IRL setup from weekly bias all the way down to the entry just comment below and let me know.

If enough people want it I'll record it over the weekend.

Probably my cleanest setup this week and only my second trade.

The market has obviously been dumping, but the weekly profile was what got me interested in a long. We accumulated Monday and Tuesday, then Wednesday swept weekly SSL, daily SSL and Asia SSL. Instead of continuing lower, we displaced hard back up on the 30m/1H and left a clean HTF FVG behind.

That's the confirmation I wanted.

Once we displaced, I marked the 1H/30m FVG as my IRL and waited for price to come back and tap the fvg's. Price retraced almost perfectly into it and gave me the entry with clear external liquidity above as the DOL. (BOTH 30MIN AND 1HR GOT TAPPED)

So the setup was basically:

SSL sweep → HTF displacement → FVG created → retrace into IRL → target ERL

Everything lined up with the weekly bias, so I considered it A+ and risked 1% for a fixed 2R. Currently around +$450 and still holding.

I've also been tracking every setup separately. On this new cash account my ERL → IRL setup has made $3,133 across 9 trades, while my 15m ORB is only +$82 across 10. That's exactly why I'm focusing more on setups like this instead of trading everything I see.

If you want me to make a video breaking down exactly how I trade this model from weekly bias to entry comment below and I'll make one this weekend.

A few months ago I made a post breaking down the boring things that finally made me profitable with prop firms. That post did way better than I expected, so I figured I'd come back with an actual update now that I have another 3 months of data.

From June 1st to now I've received $22,061.22 in payouts.

Most of these trades were copy traded across my accounts, and at one point I was running 5 accounts total. The funny part is my stats still aren't anything crazy. My overall tracked win rate during this period is 44%.

That's the biggest thing I want people struggling with prop firms to understand. You don't need to magically become a 70-80% win-rate trader. I spent years thinking I needed to get better at predicting the market when a huge part of becoming profitable was figuring out where I already had an edge and cutting out everything else.

I finally have enough trades categorized by strategy now that I can see exactly where the money is coming from.

My ERL → IRL / ICT 2022-style setup has been the clear winner recently. 10 tracked trades generated $3,910.66 with a 4.92 profit factor. My 15-minute ORB generated another $766.20 across 9 trades with a 2.75 profit factor. I also had 3 Forever Model trades generate about $1,836.80.

That's been a massive change in how I think about trading.

Before, if I saw a setup that looked decent, I'd trade it. Now I have actual evidence telling me, Kaz, this setup makes you money. This one doesn't. Why the hell are you risking the same amount on both?

So I've become way more selective.

If my ERL → IRL model appears with the liquidity, displacement and HTF context I want, I'm willing to take it. If I'm trying to force something I've historically been mediocre at just because I'm sitting in front of the charts, I'd rather do nothing.

And doing nothing has probably made me more money than another strategy ever could.

The overall numbers make this even clearer.

Across the period shown in my journal I'm sitting around $5,857 net P&L with only a 44.74% win rate, a 1.32 profit factor, and roughly $77 expectancy per trade. Those aren't sexy Twitter stats. I'm still wrong more than half the time.

Being wrong too big, trading setups you have no edge in, and taking 5 mediocre trades because you're bored is what kills you.

There's an ugly number in my stats that proves it too: my max daily drawdown reached roughly -$3,008.

That's not something I'm proud of, but I'm leaving it in here because posting $22K in payouts without showing that would be bullshit. My biggest losing days still do way too much damage compared with what an average trading day produces. That's one of the biggest things I'm working on now.

The other lesson is that payouts and trading P&L aren't the same metric. The $22,061 is what I've actually pulled from prop firms during these 3 months. The journal screenshots are the underlying trading data I'm using to analyze my execution and strategies. And because trades were being copied across multiple accounts, one good setup could obviously produce multiple payouts.

That's why I care way more about the strategy-level numbers than staring at the $22K.

If I removed the payout screenshot and showed you nothing except my stats, you'd probably never guess this was a trader who pulled $22K in 3 months.

44% win rate.

Plenty of losses.

Some genuinely shitty drawdown days.

A handful of setups that actually have an edge.

And a lot more time doing absolutely nothing.

That's basically it.

I still think most struggling traders don't need another Discord, indicator or strategy. They need to take their last 50-100 trades, categorize every single one, and figure out what is actually paying them and what they're emotionally attached to trading despite the numbers saying otherwise.

I've shared most of the actual setups I've traded along the way too, including some before entry, because I think that's more useful than posting the perfect chart afterward.

I'll keep updating these numbers as the sample gets bigger. I'm curious what everyone else's data looks like though: if you broke your last 50+ trades down by setup, which ONE setup actually made you the most money?

Yesterday I posted this exact setup before price ever reached my entry.

Here is the post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/tradingmillionaires/comments/1vzj4vo/live_trade_idea_risking_275_points_on_mnq_x_3/

Well, it just hit full TP.

$545 x 4 accounts = $2,180 total. I took the same trade across 3 x $50K funded accounts and my personal cash account. I'll include the cash-account execution and my trade stats with the screenshots as well.

The setup was basically my IRL → ERL variation of the ICT 2022 model. After the NVDA earnings gap, NQ continued respecting HTF imbalances and delivering higher. We flushed Asia SSL, reclaimed it and then displaced aggressively enough to create the 4H FVG.

From there I wasn't interested in chasing the displacement. I wanted price to come back to me.

• Asia SSL flushed + reclaimed
• Bullish displacement
• 4H FVG created = IRL
• SMT formed around the retracement
• Entry at the 4H FVG
• Entry hit basically to the tick
• Almost zero drawdown
• DOL = external liquidity above
• Fixed 1R
• +$545.78 per account
• +$2,180+ combined

What I liked most was how cleanly the sequence played out after calling it beforehand.

Yesterday I also said that if price took the DOL before retracing into my IRL, I wouldn't take the trade anymore. That's a big part of how I trade this model. An FVG sitting on the chart isn't enough. I want the liquidity and displacement to happen in the correct order. If the draw gets delivered before my entry appears, I'm not chasing the old setup.

Instead, price retraced directly into the 4H FVG, tapped it, expanded exactly as expected and eventually cleared the DOL for full TP.

I'll put together the complete IRL → ERL / ICT 2022 Model breakdown this weekend, including how I identify the liquidity, choose the FVG, determine the DOL, place the stop and filter out the setups I don't take.

Comment “DROP” if you want me to post the full breakdown this weekend.

Funny enough, the original post got basically zero traction, but this is exactly why I wanted to start posting some of these setups before they happen instead of uploading a perfect chart afterward.

Yesterday I posted the full thesis before my entry triggered. The idea was an IRL → ERL continuation using basically the ICT 2022 model. I wanted price to retrace into the 4H FVG created by the previous displacement, use that as IRL, and then expand toward the external liquidity I had marked as my DOL.

That is pretty much exactly what happened.

Price came back and tapped my entry almost to the tick with basically zero drawdown, immediately started expanding higher, and eventually took the exact DOL/ERL I had marked yesterday.

The setup was:

• Asia liquidity flushed and reclaimed.
• Strong bullish displacement followed.
• Displacement created the 4H FVG/IRL.
• Previous ERL had already been taken.
• Waited for price to return to the new IRL instead of chasing.
• Entry came directly from the 4H FVG.
• DOL was the next external liquidity above.
• Fixed 1R target.

The annoying part is my actual TP missed by about 2 points before price pulled back. 😂 So I'm sitting around breakeven protection now and leaving the position alone to see if it delivers the full target overnight.

Currently the position is $400+ per account across 3 x $50K funded accounts plus my cash account, so roughly $1,600+ combined open P&L at the point shown in the screenshot. Obviously that's unrealized until I'm out.

This is also a good example of why I care so much about the sequence with IRL → ERL. Yesterday I specifically said that if price took my next ERL before returning to the 4H FVG, I wouldn't touch the trade.

Now I'm curious, who actually saw yesterday's post and took this with me? If you did, drop your entry/exit below because I know somebody had to catch it

Posting this one before it plays out because I think live setups are way more useful than posting a perfect chart after the move already happened.

I’m watching an IRL → ERL setup on NQ, basically my variation of the ICT 2022 model. One thing I don’t love here is the weekly profile. We potentially set the low of the week Monday and have been expanding higher since, so this isn’t the clean Monday accumulation → Tuesday/Wednesday manipulation → distribution profile I normally want. I’m not forcing the weekly bias theory onto something that doesn’t fit.

What I do like is what price has done since NVDA earnings. We gapped higher, and since then price has continued respecting HTF FVGs and displacing through opposing inefficiencies. Last night we flushed Asia liquidity, reclaimed it, and then delivered enough bullish displacement to leave a fresh 4H FVG behind.

The sequence I’m watching now:

• Asia liquidity flushed and reclaimed.
• Bullish displacement confirmed buyers actually stepped in.
• That displacement created the 4H FVG, which is my IRL.
• Price has now traded through the nearby ERL.
• I want price to retrace back into that 4H FVG.
• If it holds, my DOL is the next external liquidity above.
• Fixed 1R, roughly 275 points of risk.
• Taking it across 3 x $50K funded accounts.

The important part is the order of events. If price takes the next ERL above before giving me the retracement into the 4H FVG, I’m not taking the setup afterward. At that point the trade I mapped out has already delivered toward its draw without giving my entry. I’m not chasing it back into the FVG just because the level is still sitting there.

That distinction has saved me from a lot of garbage trades. An FVG existing on the chart isn’t automatically an entry. I want liquidity → displacement → IRL → retracement → expansion toward the next ERL. If the sequence changes, so does the trade.

I’ve been tracking this model separately in my TradeZella journal because I wanted actual numbers behind it instead of convincing myself it works from a handful of clean screenshots.

Now we wait. Either price gives the exact sequence or there’s no trade. I’ll update this regardless of whether it wins, loses, or never triggers.

Been taking trading extremely slow this month and sizing way down. Today was a good example of what I'm trying to do instead: one MNQ contract + fixed 1R and close the charts. I copy traded the same execution across five accounts, so the roughly $90 base hit became about $450 total without increasing the risk of the individual setup.

The model was my 15-minute ORB + 1-minute FVG. It's probably one of the simplest setups I trade because I'm not trying to predict where NQ is going before the open. I let the first 15-minute NY candle establish the opening range, mark its high and low, then move down to the 1-minute and let price show me which side it actually wants to accept outside of.

The important part for me is that breaking the ORB isn't enough. NQ loves poking through an obvious high/low and immediately reversing. I want a 1-minute candle to actually close outside the 15m range with displacement. Ideally that displacement leaves a clean FVG behind. That's what happened here on the short side: price closed below the ORB, displaced lower and left the 1m bearish imbalance behind.

My execution is:

• First 15m NY candle = opening range
• Mark the high/low and wait
• Drop to the 1m
• Require a candle close outside the ORB
• Look for displacement creating a 1m FVG
• Enter on the retracement into the FVG
• Stop above the first FVG candle for shorts / below it for longs
• Target a fixed 1R

This is also where I think people overcomplicate ORBs. I'm not buying or selling just because a line gets broken. The ORB gives me the location. Displacement gives me confirmation, and the FVG gives me the execution. If price can't close outside the range with enough intent to leave an imbalance, there's usually nothing for me to do and I will stop trading this setup 1.5 hrs into the NY open.

I've tracked 50+ trades of this specific setup, and doing that has made me way more selective about what I consider a legitimate ORB. I'm looking at the breakout close, FVG quality, time of entry, MAE/MFE and whether the trade actually followed the model rather than throwing every opening-range trade into the same bucket.

I'm deliberately taking base hits right now instead of trying to catch every NQ expansion. This one paid roughly $90 per account in under 20 minutes with a single MNQ, and that's more than enough for me.

If anyone wants the stats from the 50+ trades I've journaled on this model, let me know and I can post the numbers/results separately.

This might be one of the most boring months I've had trading in a long time, and I'm actually okay with it.

August has been weird for me. The summer volume and overall PA just haven't been sitting well with the way I trade. A lot of the moves I've been watching have either been choppy, lacked the displacement I want, or haven't given me a clean enough DOL to justify putting real risk on. Instead of trying to convince myself that I need to make money every week, I've mostly just stayed out.

My stats through August 24th pretty much tell the story:

• Net P&L: +$84.44
• 5 closed trades
• 60% win rate
• 60% winning-day rate
• 1.06 profit factor
• Average winner: +$466
• Average loser: -$657
• Average win/loss: 0.71
• Only two actual losing trades, but one bad day erased most of the month

I was actually sitting around +$1,400 at one point. Then August 20th I took a -$1,311 day and basically handed the month back. That's the part I'm paying the most attention to. I can see how my trading can be affected and stop before it snowballs down.

That's something I would've handled completely differently a few years ago. A $1,300 red day would've turned into "I need to make this back." Then I'm trading the next session harder, lowering my standards, changing bias every five minutes and probably turning a mediocre month into an absolute disaster.

Now? The month is basically flat and I don't care.

I'm paid for taking risk when I believe I have an edge. If that means sitting there for a week waiting for one clean IRL → ERL setup, 15-minute ORB, or one of the few models I've actually tested enough to trust, that's what I'm going to do.

The biggest thing I've been doing during the downtime is backtesting instead of forcing live trades. I'm going deeper into the setups I already trade, looking at what conditions actually make them perform, and running a combination of automated tests and manual backtesting. I'm specifically interested in separating the model from the environment: session, volatility, DOL, HTF bias, liquidity taken before entry, displacement quality, time of day, and whether the trade was actually part of the plan or something I manufactured while staring at the chart.

I'm also testing automation because there's only so much you can learn manually clicking through charts. Automation gives me a larger sample; manual replay lets me study the context the raw numbers miss. I think you need both. A backtest saying something works means very little if you don't understand when and why the edge appears.

And the current stats aren't something I'm going to dress up either. A 1.06 PF and 0.71 average win/loss is trash compared with what I want from myself. That's useful information. The $84 doesn't matter nearly as much as understanding why my average loss has expanded relative to my average winner and making sure that doesn't become a permanent change in execution.

That's the reality of trading that doesn't make it onto social media very often. Sometimes you're not making $10k. Sometimes you're not blowing an account either. Sometimes you spend an entire month doing almost nothing, take a couple decent trades, make one stupid mistake, finish basically breakeven and spend the rest of your time collecting data.

And that can still be a productive month.

I'd rather finish August at +$84 with my capital intact and another month of data than force 30 trades just so I can feel like I'm doing something.

September will come. Volume will come back. My setups will come back.

Until then, I'm not fighting the market because I'm bored.