


Live Callout: The Setup That's Made Me $16.5K Across 68 Trades Is Forming Again
Figured I'd post this one before the result instead of dropping another perfect chart after the fact. This is the ERL → IRL / ICT 2022 setup I'm currently watching, and I actually have enough data on this specific model now that I'm comfortable sharing the numbers behind it too.
The weekly profile is what started the idea. Monday established the initial range, then Tuesday into Wednesday pushed lower and flushed sell-side liquidity, including Asia SSL. Under the weekly bias framework I use, I'm watching Monday as accumulation, Tuesday/Wednesday as the potential manipulation, and then looking for distribution/expansion afterward. That doesn't guarantee Wednesday printed the weekly low, but after taking liquidity I needed price to prove it wanted to reprice higher.
That's exactly what started happening. Price displaced aggressively away from the lows and created a clean 30-minute bullish FVG. For me that's the transition from ERL back toward IRL: external liquidity gets raided, displacement confirms the reaction, and the imbalance created during that displacement becomes the area where I'm willing to enter rather than chasing price higher.
The actual trade plan is pretty simple:
- SSL/ERL has already been taken.
- Potential weekly low/manipulation has formed Tuesday-Wednesday.
- Bullish displacement confirms the reaction.
- 30m FVG becomes my IRL/entry zone.
- Stop belongs beyond the low that invalidates the entire idea.
- Opposing external liquidity is the DOL.
- I'm generally taking 1R-2R rather than trying to squeeze every point out of the weekly expansion.
The reason I've gotten much more confident trading this is because I finally stopped lumping every trade together. I created ERL → IRL as its own strategy inside TradeZella, then used the Reports/Strategy section to isolate what the model was actually doing instead of relying on memory.
Across the 68 trades currently tagged to it, I'm sitting at a 70.59% win rate, 3.55 profit factor and $16,510.20 net P&L. Average net P&L is $242.80 per trade, average win/loss is 1.48, winning-day rate is 76.36%, and the average hold is about 4h 13m. What's probably most important to me is that the equity curve has continued grinding higher over the sample instead of the results coming from one or two monster trades.
That's also why I don't really care whether this particular callout wins. One trade means nothing. If the FVG holds and we continue toward the opposing liquidity, I execute the model. If the low gets invalidated, I take the loss and log it. The whole point of tracking this stuff is getting away from judging your trading based on whatever happened today.
I'll come back and post the result either way. Win or loss, it'll become trade #69 in the dataset.