u/Kookumber

As of August 13th, 2026 Tatis Jr. sits at 29.5 fWAR. He accomplished this in 791 games and will most likely cross the 30 fWAR threshold in ~800 games.

Tony Gwynn crossed the 30 fWAR mark during his 1989 season. Although we do not have game by game fWAR, it took him around 935 games to reach this milestone.

Barring a complete collapse or injury, Tatis Jr. should cruise past this arbitrary marker.

Tatis will also most likely pass Jake Peavy (30.7 fWAR) and become 2nd all time fWAR leader for the Padres.

At only 27, he is also the youngest Padre to reach 30 fWAR (Gwynn was 28). This also accounts for the shortened Covid season and the time lost to suspension / injury. Playing until 42 like Tony Gwynn did is an increasingly rare feat, however, Tatis has a real shot to become the all-time Padre fWAR leader.

Salas was upgraded from a 50 -> 55 FV player.

This gives him a current Surplus Value of $55M according to FanGraphs and a 17.5% of becoming a 'Star'.

The full quote on his move here: "Salas went from underperforming after a series of aggressive promotions to missing most of last year with injury, but he’s been productive on both sides of the ball at Double-A in 2026, especially as a contact hitter. He has two plus-plus defensive attributes (throwing and framing), but he’s still a terrible ball-blocker."

I wrote this article as the trade deadline approaches as a fun exercise to analyze the last 30 years of deadline sales. I thought it was extra relevant as the Padres middle around .500 with the deadline approaching. What is the realistic return most teams get at the deadline?

As the title says, I have a 70% partial tear on my infraspinatus with 10mm retraction. Obviously, not great. Been doing PT for years, had multiple PRP injections with basically no improvement. I also have 3 minor tears on the labrum, but doc said they are not an issue. I had an arthroscopic labrum repair 10 years ago on the same shoulder.

This injury would not be that debilitating, except I am an avid surfer. To regain at least partial strength, I really want to get this fixed. The ortho is not recommending surgery unless I want to take the risk, so I am looking for regenerative medicines. I have tried shockwave therapy, EMT, PRP, peptides, but nothing has really worked. Is it worth it to get stem cells? I can afford to get them done, so that is not an issue.

Today is May 12th, 2026. The Padres are at 24-16, they just split a 4 game set against the Cardinals. We are just above one quarter of the way through the season. Let's get in the time portal and check out what was happening this time last year.

Welcome to May 12th, 2025. The Padres just lost 5-9 to the Angels bringing their record to 25-15. This is after crushing the Rockies and posting 21 runs in a single game on May 10th. Eerily identical record to last year, but accomplished in a much different manner.

https://preview.redd.it/e04zmr1pbq0h1.png?width=2726&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee564965fbdfbaa67effa86fa4545a7c78abb331

Here are the core 5's offensive stats as of May 12, 2025. Some notable mentions include:

Tatis already had 10 homers.

Manny was red hot, with a .331/.486/.886

Xander was ice cold.

Jackson had a 1.250 OPS

Sheets was a pleasant surprise to start the year.

Now onto the pitching.

https://preview.redd.it/p2jilyqheq0h1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=945e98b7e8229980835f845937bc57e47ec66e9f

Similar to 2026, the pitching had some major questions marks. Vasquez was not the Vasquez we see today. Pivetta was yet to establish himself and was coming off a mid year with the Red Sox. Yu Darvish was yet to throw a pitch and Dylan Cease was struggling out of the gate. King was absolutely dealing, but would find himself on the IL in 2 weeks. Kolek had looked great and was shaping up to be an amazing depth piece.

Looking at the bullpen. On this day last year, Suarez logged his first blown save of the season. He loaded the bases, showing a complete loss of command. Schildt brought in Alek Jacob who promptly gave up a grand slam to Taylor ward.

However, the usual suspects were dealing. The foursome of Estrada, Morejon, Adam, and Suarez continued to regularly shut the door on opponents. This would prove to be the highlight of the 2025 season.

The other side of the pen was bad. Yuki, Peralta, and Hart had thrown a meaningful amount of pitches to this point and looked shaky at best.

Overall, the Padres had gotten off to a white hot start to the season, but had started to taper off at this point. The pitching was showing signs of cracking and an unsustainable offensive outburst had carried them thus far. However, this burst would prove to be much needed. The Padres would go 65-57 to finish the season, good for a 53.3% win percentage. In other words, they were just above a .500 ball club the rest of the year. Without this early season surge, they would not have made the playoffs.

And now we are back to the present. What can we extract from this look back into the past?

- While there are many unsustainable features of the 2026 Padres, this early season push may be enough to punch their ticket to the playoffs if they can sustain just above .500 ball the rest of the season.

- The offense can't be worse than it is right now, and thats a good thing. Tatis struggled offensively after this early season surge. We have won despite his struggles at the plate and a mid season push from him may be our saving grace. The Padres struggled to win last year when Tatis was not hitting, but they have shown an ability to do so this year.

- Starting pitching was better at this point last year. A 2025 average xwOBA of .302 versus 2026 xwOBA of .327 is a significant gap. However, once again, we are winning in spite of this and our pitching is trending up in the short term. This would prove to be the peak of the 2025 pitching staff. Cease never regained form, King went on the IL for the rest of the season, Yu Darvish struggled once he came back. Pivetta was the stopper to this rotation and helped stop the bleeding on a number of occasions. In 2026, Canning has been excellent, King is looking like he'll repeat his 2024 season, and Vasquez is on pace to throw 185 Innings. If Pivetta can come back by August or if Musgrove can throw meaningful innings (doubtful but hopeful), this rotation might be better than 2025 once all is said and done.

- The 2026 Padres have Mason Miller for a full season and he's more dominant than ever.

- We have much more hitting depth than in 2025 but lack the pitching depth. Although it may not feel like it right now, a lineup with Andujar, Castellanos, Laureano, Sheets, and Campusano provides infinitely more firepower than the 2025 roster had. The 2025 roster was anemic outside the core 5 listed above. We were giving meaningful at bats to Martin Maldonado, Brandon Lockridge, Yuli Gurriel, Tyler Wade, Mason McCoy, and Tirso Ornelas. It's hard to capture how much more depth we have on the bench and in the everyday lineup.

- We have 2 major league catchers. This is such a massive upgrade from last year. Luis Campusano has already posted 0.9 fWAR (4 war pace by the way) while being a backup catcher and Fermin is on a tear defensively this year with 3 DRS and 1.5 OAA. They are both plus players and provide immense value to this team.