I built a model that prices PSA 10 slabs off fundamentals like population, gem rate, pull rate, character, age and print run. It spits out what a slab should be worth, then flags it as underpriced, overpriced, or fairly valued.

I wanted to build something that could help me decide when it was a good time to purchase a card or find cards that were undervalued before they jumped up in price.

I've been logging every call daily for a bit over two months now, 1,723 slabs.

The first chart, green is everything it called underpriced and red is everything it called overpriced. Grey is the slabs it deemed fairly priced.

Underpriced ended at +11.3%, overpriced at −7.7%. That's the average price move since the day each call was made.

The grey line is the one I'd actually look at first. Those are the slabs the model had no opinion on and they finished flat at −0.5%. If those had run too it would just mean the whole market moved and my calls didn't mean anything.

The second chart splits it by how sure the model was on each call. Every call gets a conviction label of strong, watch, or lean. Strong means the gap cleared my threshold outright, watch and lean are progressively smaller gaps.

Strong underpriced calls are at +17.6% and strong overpriced at −14.8%, so 32 percentage points between the two ends.

Every card's individual call is free to look at on hyperpotion.io if you want to pick holes in it.

What surprised me is the conviction tiers lined up in order both ways. Strong beat watch beat lean going up, and the same going down. I wasn't expecting the confidence labels to hold up that cleanly.

Two months isn't a super long track record, but it is the first read I've got, and I'll keep posting it as more accumulates whether it holds up or not.

Best Scarlet & Violet cards to grade right now, same top 8, ranked two different ways.

Best Case: the best return you'd get if a card comes back a 10. But all of these cards have very low gem rates, which is what explains the premium, but also means it's much harder to actually hit that 10.

Expected Value: the same era of cards, but weighted by gem rate (the ones that actually hit a 10 more often) plus realistic gem rate odds. What you'd actually expect, not the dream scenario.

What are your thoughts on each list? Anything stick out?

Best Scarlet & Violet cards to grade right now, same top 8, ranked two different ways.

Best Case: the best return you'd get if a card comes back a 10. But all of these cards have very low gem rates, which is what explains the premium, but also means it's much harder to actually hit that 10.

Expected Value: the same era of cards, but weighted by gem rate (the ones that actually hit a 10 more often) plus realistic gem rate odds. What you'd actually expect, not the dream scenario.

What are your thoughts on each list? Anything stick out?

Takeaways

1. New sets own the board. Pitch Black, Chaos Rising, Perfect Order and Ascended Heroes take 9 of the 10 slots in July. Not all that surprising, but June still had room for some additional cards like Pikachu & Zekrom GX, Crown Zenith Pikachu, and Mew ex promo. All three fell out in July. The only card left standing outside the current block is the Charmander promo.

2. Mega Gengar ex still isn't letting go. 395 sold in July, up from 343 in June, and it's held the #1 or #2 spot every single month since March. The gap is what stands out. In June it beat #2 by 22%, in July it beat #2 by 77%. It's pulling away from the field, not just holding position.

The catch is the price. Average sale price dropped from $78.83 to $60.39, roughly -23% month over month, while volume climbed. Classic more supply lower price pattern, plenty of people opening Ascended Heroes and plenty of people buying the singles. Great liquidity, not a great hold right now.

3. Charmander Promo and Psyduck have become fixtures. Charmander has been in the top 10 every month since May, Psyduck since April. Charmander is remarkably stable: 210 → 220 sold, $70.49 → $65.44. Psyduck held volume (213 → 212) but the price came off hard, $107 → $79.54, about -26%.

demand isn't slowing at all, the price is just settling. Cards that keep moving 200+ units a month while cooling off in price are usually finding their real floor rather than dying.

4. Pitch Black grabbed 4 of the top 10 out of nowhere. Zeraora, Morpeko, Chandelure and Darkrai all landed in July which is not a surprise with it being the newest set and releasing mid July.

5. Mega Greninja ex is the one I'd watch. Volume barely moved (237 → 223) but the average dropped from $331 to $247, about -25%. That's roughly $78K of monthly sales down to $55K. Same number of buyers, meaningfully less money. When demand holds flat and price falls that fast, it's supply and Chaos Rising is still being opened hard.

Overall the top 10 moved 2,222 units in July vs 2,383 in June, slightly fewer cards, near-identical dollar volume (~$241K vs ~$244K) rotating into whatever came out most recently.

Anything here surprise you?

I've built a tool that screens cards across PSA, CGC, BGS, SGC, TAG, and ACE to find where the biggest price differences are and where opportunities lie with cracking slabs and resubmitting to a different grading company.

One dominant pattern here is PSA 9 → CGC 10 (not pristine). The jump feels very achievable too, since you can review the PSA 9 in hand before deciding to resubmit and there's a good bit of upside.

You can see in the #1 spot a PSA 9 Umbreon ex sitting around $1.5k, and if you cross grade it to a CGC 10 you're looking at a +$1k return. If you'd rather chase percentage plays, the Magikarp (+142%) and Mega Charizard X ex (+167%) are strong. The tool also accounts for grading fees when calculating these returns.

I'm just showcasing a 9 → 10 route in this post, but the tool also handles 10 → 10 cross grading across all these companies. And for a 10 → 10, the best route is almost always crossing to PSA (shocking, I know)

Happy to hear thoughts or feature ideas. I am still actively working on it

The most traded $50+ singles by units sold, across three windows so you can see what’s holding vs fading with data from the last 30 days, July so far (month to date, so counts will run lower), and all of June.

What stood out:

• Mega Gengar ex is #1 in all three windows. Seems like a very popular card (shocking I know)
• Psyduck form Ascended Heroes has also been very popular, and although not #1, a top seller with Mega Gengar ex
• Mega era cards own the top of every list, which also makes sense since that is the era we are in
• Promos are still highly sought after like the Charmander, Mew ex, and Haunter
• Older staples seem to never leave. Pikachu from Crown Zenith, Charizard V continue to hold steady

Not all of this demand is equal. Some of these cards are long running and have been at the top of the list for a few months now. Mega Gengar ex, Mew ex, Psyduck, and Pikachu have been top sellers month after month, while other newer cards like Mega Grenina ex and Cinccino only recently broke into the top 10 this month. Worth knowing which card have been durable and which are spikes

Curious what you’re all seeing move? Anything here surprise you or anything that you think should be up in the top 10 instead?

The most traded $50+ singles by units sold, across three windows so you can see what’s holding vs fading with data from the last 30 days, July so far (month to date, so counts will run lower), and all of June.

What stood out:

• Mega Gengar ex is #1 in all three windows. Seems like a very popular card (shocking I know)
• Psyduck form Ascended Heroes has also been very popular, and although not #1, a top seller with Mega Gengar ex
• Mega era cards own the top of every list, which also makes sense since that is the era we are in
• Promos are still highly sought after like the Charmander, Mew ex, and Haunter
• Older staples seem to never leave. Pikachu from Crown Zenith, Charizard V continue to hold steady

Not all of this demand is equal. Some of these cards are long running and have been at the top of the list for a few months now. Mega Gengar ex, Mew ex, Psyduck, and Pikachu have been top sellers month after month, while other newer cards like Mega Grenina ex and Cinccino only recently broke into the top 10 this month. Worth knowing which card have been durable and which are spikes

Curious what you’re all seeing move? Anything here surprise you or anything that you think should be up in the top 10 instead?

I’ve been ranking modern cards by grading ROI (raw cost + grading fee ($80) to PSA 10 value) and I think the most useful thing isn’t the ranking itself, it is the gap between two ways of measuring it.

“Best Case” = Your return if the card grades a 10. 

“Expected” = That same return, but weighted by how often the card actually 10s (based on gem rate), plus a small haircut for how much the slab price could drift while it sits at PSA.

If you rank purely by best case, the top 10 is almost entirely low gem rate moonshots:

Seismitoad — +834% (16% gem rate)

Magikarp — +754% (16% gem rate)

Maushold — +718% (13% gem rate)

Oshawott — +565% (16% gem rate)

The ceilings are high for these cards, but you’re receiving a 9 most of the time.

When you instead rank by expected return and favor gem rate (reward cards that more reliably hit), the list flips toward stuff like 

Mega Zygarde ex — +110% (83% gem rate)

Clefairy — +88% (82% gem rate)

Psyduck — +87% (63% gem rate)

Meowth ex — +60% (85% gem rate)

These cards have a lower ceiling, but are more attainable to grade and get a 10.

The one card that lands on both lists is:

Terapagos ex — $41 raw to $624 in a PSA 10 with a 42% gem rate. It has a +129% expected return and a +417% best case return. That combo is rare with a high ceiling  and odds good enough to count on hitting that 10. Most other cards are either one or the other.

I’m curious what others thoughts are on this. Is Terapagos ex a good grading play at the moment? Do you chase the biggest ceiling when grading or do you go for cards with a higher floor? 

I spent the last few months building HyperPotion, a site that estimates what modern chase cards should cost based on supply/demand fundamentals like print scarcity, gem rate, PSA 10 pop, set age, character popularity, etc. The interesting part is the gap between that fair value and the actual market price. Some cards trade well above what the fundamentals support, some well below.

I will be upfront about it though, this is a fair value gauge, not a crystal ball. It compares what a card is worth on fundamentals vs. what it's trading at. I'm not promising it'll tell you what moons next.

With that said, I've been tracking whether the "discounted" flags actually pay off. Over the last month, cards flagged as discounted outperformed cards flagged as premium. The gap was roughly +9% vs +6% raw, and +10% vs +1% on PSA 10s. Big caveat, that's one month, in a market where almost everything was up. So this is discounts beating premiums, not proof anything goes up. I'll keep publishing the tracking either way, including if it stops working.

Honestly there’s a ton that goes into it, and I tried to keep as much free as I could. On any card you get fair value for raw and PSA 10, grading ROI, price history, and a market read for free. Beyond that there are leaderboards (mispriced, movers, demand, hold worthy), grading tools (ROI plus a grading arbitrage board), an investment grade view, a market index with an S&P 500 overlay, and even more tools to help you find cards worth investing in.

Link: https://hyperpotion.io

What I actually want from you, what would make this trustworthy vs. just another data site? What number would actually change how you buy? And tell me where the model is obviously wrong. I am happy to explain how it weights each input if anyone wants to dig into the methodology.

I've built a tool that screens cards across PSA, CGC, BGS, SGC, TAG, and ACE to find where the biggest price differences are and where opportunities lie with cracking slabs and resubmitting to a different grading company (shocker, most of the gains are to PSA).

The dominant pattern is pretty clear: CGC 10 → PSA 10 is where almost all the edge is. PSA just commands a significant premium.

The most eye opening one to me is the Umbreon ex CGC 10 sitting around $2.3k, PSA 10 at $6.9k. There are serious gains to be had if you can find good looking CGC 10s to cross grade. The tool is also accounting for the $80 base PSA grading fee so the edge numbers you see are already net of that cost. Gem rate on the resubmit is obviously still the wildcard.

I've been looking at SV Base IRs lately and something feels off about where PSA 10 prices are sitting. The set is out of print, gem rates are 10–15% and the PSA 10 population for each of these cards is extremely low, with most under 1,000 PSA 10s in existence! Yet the slab prices don't seem to reflect any of that scarcity. Curious if others are seeing the same thing.

None of these IRs are top tier pokemon like Charizard, Umbreon, etc, but I don't think they are bottom of the barrel either and the ones I highlighted have some real charm to them

Drowzee — An iconic artwork, but attached to a subpar pokemon. I actually think this one IS fairly priced already, but actually has the highest gem rate and PSA 10 pop of all of these cards

Ralts + Kirlia — These two are part of a bigger story with story artwork that leads into the Gardevoir ex SIR. This would be the first story artwork of the SV era and I feel collectors would want the whole story in a PSA 10, but with so few PSA 10s in existence only so many would be able to

Slowpoke — I absolutely love the artwork on this one and I know there is a dedicated slowpoke collector base

Riolu — popular Pokémon, cute artwork

Wiglett — This one is a wildcard. Only 111 PSA 10s exist. The artwork has a ton of cameos including Psyduck hiding in there. The model on HyperPotion can't even get a confident read on it because sales are so thin. Could be nothing, could be interesting.

These cards were ran through a fair value model on HyperPotion and most of the PSA 10s are coming back well below where the fundamentals say they should be priced at.

Curious what others think. Is there something the model and I is missing on these or is this a buying opportunity?

I've been looking at SV Base IRs lately and something feels off about where PSA 10 prices are sitting. The set is out of print, gem rates are 10–15% and the PSA 10 population for each of these cards is extremely low, with most under 1,000 PSA 10s in existence! Yet the slab prices don't seem to reflect any of that scarcity. Curious if others are seeing the same thing.

None of these IRs are top tier pokemon like Charizard, Umbreon, etc, but I don't think they are bottom of the barrel either and the ones I highlighted have some real charm to them

Drowzee — An iconic artwork, but attached to a subpar pokemon. I actually think this one IS fairly priced already, but actually has the highest gem rate and PSA 10 pop of all of these cards

Ralts + Kirlia — These two are part of a bigger story with story artwork that leads into the Gardevoir ex SIR. This would be the first story artwork of the SV era and I feel collectors would want the whole story in a PSA 10, but with so few PSA 10s in existence only so many would be able to

Slowpoke — I absolutely love the artwork on this one and I know there is a dedicated slowpoke collector base

Riolu — popular Pokémon, cute artwork

Wiglett — This one is a wildcard. Only 111 PSA 10s exist. The artwork has a ton of cameos including Psyduck hiding in there. The model on HyperPotion can't even get a confident read on it because sales are so thin. Could be nothing, could be interesting.

These cards were ran through a fair value model on HyperPotion and most of the PSA 10s are coming back well below where the fundamentals say they should be priced at.

Curious what others think. Is there something the model and I is missing on these or is this a buying opportunity?

I've been chasing grading arbitrage for a while. Buying a card raw, sending it to grade, selling the PSA 10 for more than raw + grading fees, then rolling the profit into more raw cards to do it again. To make finding these easier I built a tool that runs a model across every Scarlet & Violet set through Mega Evolution. Figured I'd share it in case others want to do the same.

It ranks cards by the largest spread using a probability-weighted return, not the best case, and there are some genuinely strong plays right now even at PSA's $80 base fee. A few of the top ones:

• Mega Zygarde ex (Perfect Order) — raw $69 → PSA 10 $488 · 83% gem · ~+$184
• Mega Starmie ex (Perfect Order) — raw $63 → PSA 10 $455 · 81% gem · ~+$162
• Meowth ex (Perfect Order) — raw $180 → PSA 10 $713 · 85% gem · ~+$249
• Psyduck (Ascended Heroes) — raw $106 → PSA 10 $651 · 63% gem · ~+$215
• Mega Gengar ex (MAR) (Ascended Heroes) — raw $77 → PSA 10 $428 · 70% gem · ~+$129

I personally filter for the highest spread with the highest gem rate, since that gives me the best shot at actually hitting the 10 and claiming the spread. The Psyduck from Ascended Heroes feels like a great play to me currently being a popular Pokemon, nice artwork, and coming from ascended heroes, which is very popular. It's obviously not a guarantee the card gems, but the model factors the gem rate into the return, so you're seeing a probability-weighted number, not a best case. Genuinely curious what you all think of the approach, anything you'd say it's missing, or not capturing the full picture?

A little context, I thought it'd be a fun project to build a model that estimates which cards are under/overvalued based on their fundamentals: popularity, print scarcity, PSA pop, gem rates, how fast they actually sell, etc. It's turned into a surprisingly useful lens for "is this price even sane?"

Poking around Surging Sparks singles, I found a cluster the model flagged as trading well below fair value and these were its high confidence calls:

 - Slakoth #212 — ~$13 → ~$29 (−53%)

 - Skarmory #209 — ~$11 → ~$22 (−48%)

 - Feebas #198 — ~$12 → ~$21 (−46%)

 - Mesprit #204 — ~$14 → ~$25 (−45%)

A few it was less sure about but still flagged:

- Latios #203 (−36%) 

- Ceruledge #197 (−35%) 

- Spheal #199 (−28%) 

 - Latias ex #239 (~$195 vs ~$237, −18%)

Here's where I actually want other people's read, because I don't know. Besides Latias ex, these aren't headliner cards, and "underpriced by the model" could mean two very different things:

 1. the market's genuinely sleeping on these cards, or

 2. my model is overrating scarcity and fundamentals and missing the demand side for these secondary cards.

I lean skeptical, honestly, I checked whether the model's "undervalued" calls actually outperform later and there's no reliable edge yet, so I treat it as a fair value sanity check, not a buy signal. But I'd love a gut check from people who know this set. Are any of these real sleepers, or is the model just wrong on them?