Signs the Pokémon TCG Market Is in a Bubble ( Let's Discuss )
So before starting this post, I want to make a few things clear:
- I have invested in Pokémon mainly in Prismatic Evolutions so I’ll do my best to stay as unbiased as possible.
- This is just my personal take based on the fundamentals I use when investing. I’m open to discussion, so feel free to share your thoughts below.
Let’s get into it.
I believe that sets like 151 (just as an example), along with many others, are currently overvalued. I think a major correction in the North American market is coming sooner or later it’s not a matter of if, but when. In this post, I’ll go over the fundamentals I use when investing, compare 151 to Prismatic Evolutions, and then give my final thoughts on the overall market.
Before we dive in, think about what I mean by “fundamentals.” Here’s what I personally look for:
1. Top 10 card values
I believe that sets with strong top-end cards and solid price action are more likely to hold or gain value over time. Why does this matter? If a set has only one major chase card and everything else drops off significantly (for example, below $100), then if that top card declines, the overall value of the set will likely follow over time.
2. Cross-demographic appeal of Pokémon characters
Certain Pokémon have built long-term, global appeal and are considered “grails” across different age groups and regions. Characters like Charizard, Pikachu, and Eevee are instantly recognizable worldwide. This kind of demand helps sustain value. As print runs end, demand often remains or increases because the popularity of these characters doesn’t fade. Sets without these “grail” Pokémon, in my opinion, are more likely to decline as demand weakens.
3.Demand
I look for consistent transaction volume mainly on eBay, since it’s one of the few places where you can see real money actively moving in the market. High demand with steady sales volume is a strong indicator of sustained interest.
These are the main fundamentals I use when evaluating a set.
Now let’s move into the comparison I mentioned:
Comparison: Scarlet & Violet 151 vs. Prismatic Evolutions (ETBs/SPCs)
This comparison will follow the same fundamentals outlined above so you can clearly understand my thought process and investing approach.
- Top 10 Card Values Scarlet & Violet 151 vs Prismatic Evolutions
Total Value in top 10 is 5,796$ Based of current market prices of the making of this post
Total Value in top 10 is 2,037.55$ Based of current market prices of the making of this post
Quick Disclaimer - Collectr using TCG Player numbers for pricing which could be not 100% correct or possibly manipulated. Just using the prices just for this post to get the idea across always use Ebay and sold items to figure out the most recent average price cards are going for.
151 – Review
Looking at the numbers, the top 10 cards in the set total roughly $2,000 in value. Now compare that to sealed product: ETBs are around $900 CAD, and SPCs are closer to $1,300 CAD.
This raises a key question why would someone buy an ETB or SPC to open when they could purchase the top singles for significantly less? Even in a best-case scenario, like pulling a god pack (which is extremely rare), the expected value still likely doesn’t justify the cost of opening sealed product.
So what’s driving these prices? In my view, it looks heavily supported by hype and nostalgia. The issue is that markets driven primarily by those factors tend to correct hard over time. Most buyers aren’t purchasing sealed boxes just to hold they’re buying for the chance to pull cards. If the value of the contents doesn’t support the sealed price, that imbalance eventually gets corrected.
Prismatic Evolutions – Review
In comparison, the top 10 cards in Prismatic Evolutions total roughly $5,800 in value. Meanwhile, ETBs are around $220 CAD, and SPCs sit closer to $420 CAD.
Before getting into this set, my thinking was fairly straightforward: the featured Pokémon are highly desirable, and the singles are relatively expensive and less accessible. Because of that, more people are likely to buy sealed product (ETBs/SPCs) for a chance at pulling these cards rather than spending thousands upfront on singles.
That dynamic matters. Spending $200–$400 for a chance at high-end chase cards is psychologically and financially easier for most buyers than committing nearly $6,000 to acquire them outright. As more people choose to open sealed product, demand for boxes increases.
To me, this suggests that sealed products in this set may actually be undervalued relative to the potential value inside. The risk/reward balance feels much more reasonable compared to something like 151.
2. Cross-demographic appeal of Pokémon characters
151
When comparing cross-demographic appeal, both sets approach it differently. 151 leans heavily on nostalgia, featuring original Generation 1 Pokémon that are widely recognized. While this creates strong initial demand, much of it is driven by older collectors reconnecting with the hobby rather than sustained long-term growth across newer audiences.
Prismatic
Prismatic Evolutions, on the other hand, benefits from including Pokémon that still have strong relevance across both older and newer generations. This creates a broader demand base, as it appeals not just to nostalgia-driven buyers but also to active collectors in the current market. In my view, that wider appeal gives it more stability over time compared to a set that relies primarily on nostalgia.
3.Demand
151
You can see on ebay that ETB's and SPC's of 151 are sub below 1k in tranaction history. Its a sign that demand perhaps isn't as high as most people would think.
Prismatic
Transactions for Prismatic are well above a few thousand in tranactions.
To Summarize generally speaking prismatic has a high more demand that 151 in the current market which is good if you wanna actually be able to sell your boxes.
Summary On Thoughts:
Right now the current pokemon markets haven't matured enough yet in North American or Europe but they will happen. A good example is the Japanese market they went through bubbles and sets have generally corrected to what the market will actually pay for the sets/singles. Soon enough are markets will mature and face massive corrections to form a more mature market and the bubble we are in will pop. Not here to spook folks but lets try to use critical thinking for the time being in this market.
Hope this gave some insights for you to think about and found the info useful.
If you have something to comment go for it generally would like to see this conversation more openly spoke about. So you and other people might save some money on these investments.
