2026 Brazilian General Election Guide: The Candidates
Although the election features 12 candidates, only five are noteworthy, as they are the ones registering in the polls and receiving media coverage. It is fair to say that this time, Brazilians are heading to the polls to choose between the left-wing incumbent and four different flavors of the Right.
LUIS INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA - BRAZIL READY FOR MORE - PT/PSB/PDT/PSOL/REDE/PCDOB/PV
After winning three elections (2002, 2006, 2022) and losing three (1989, 1994, 1998), Lula is looking for the tie-breaker. In his last dance, the leading figure of the Brazilian left over the past 40 years seeks an unprecedented fourth term to govern the country for a total of 16 non-consecutive years. He maintains the choice of Geraldo Alckmin as vice president—a figure who was once one of his fiercest rivals and helped elect him in 2022 due to his more centrist profile.
Pros
- The third Lula administration achieved significant milestones, such as tax reform—an endeavor pursued unsuccessfully since the 1990s to unify and simplify Brazilian taxes while respecting the federal pact—and an income tax exemption for salaries up to 5,000 reais (US$ 960), coupled with increased taxation on the wealthiest segments of society. On the political front, Lula’s conciliatory nature enabled the government to maintain its congressional majority—even while facing blackmail from right-wing parties regarding proposals to amnesty those involved in the January 8 events—in order to pass priority measures.
- Despite being older than Trump and Biden (and turning 84 if he finishes his term in 2030), Lula's health isn't a major election issue for either his campaign or the voters. I actually find the videos of him bench-pressing amusing, since they're just meant to say, "The old guy here is still strong."
- As the only significant left-wing candidate, Lula will benefit from substantial TV and radio airtime (five and a half minutes) thanks to his coalition. Combined with a high baseline of support (46–47%), this could prove decisive in persuading undecided voters to hand him a first-round victory.
- Trump’s tariffs and his association with the Bolsonaro family are a powerful asset for Lula, who has been hammering home a sovereignty-focused narrative since last year through campaigns defending the PIX online payment system and upholding the Brazilian Supreme Court’s rulings regarding the 2023 coup plotters.
- Cons
- The biggest challenge to be faced will be the perception of the cost of living. Even though inflation is under control and the economy is operating at full employment, the general public is dissatisfied, feeling that their money does not last the entire month. The primary causes of this are household indebtedness—which rose in recent years as the economy heated up—and the proliferation of online betting, a multi-million-dollar market that is now causing significant headaches.
- It is not only internal factors that threaten re-election: Donald Trump has a direct interest in the defeat of the only major South American country with a left-wing government remaining during his term and will do anything possible for achieve that. The tariffs imposed on Brazil boosted Lula's popularity, but retaliatory measures raise voter concerns. An aggressive or forced response could sway undecided voters to Flávio Bolsonaro.
FLÁVIO BOLSONARO - BRAZIL WILL WIN - PL
Flávio Bolsonaro—one of the sons of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president who has been convicted by the courts over coup attempt—was anointed as his father's personal candidate to represent the interests of Bolsonarism, to the detriment of other figures on the right viewed as more moderate (such as São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas). For vice president, he chose Alfredo Gaspar—a congressman from Alagoas and head of the investigation into pension system irregularities.
- Pros
Despite all the issues surrounding the pre-campaign, being Bolsonaro's son provides a baseline of support that prevents any other right-wing candidacy from threatening him. Since a runoff is the most likely electoral scenario, Flávio can count on the fragmented right-wing vote, needing only a few undecided voters to swing the margin by a percentage point in either direction.
Even running on a single-party ticket (historically a disadvantage), Flávio will have 4 minutes and 20 seconds of daily TV and radio airtime to reduce his high disapproval ratings—particularly among female voters and those in the Northeast—while challenging Lula on tough-on-crime policies.
- Cons
Flávio was launched into the race too early, and as a result, he has accumulated a wide variety of controversies that have left his campaign in a very precarious position:
- Her feud with stepmother Michelle Bolsonaro (who seeks to carve out her own identity within the family and was considered as a potential candidate in her husband's absence) didn't go down well with female voters. It doesn't help that many of Flávio's allies went so far as to say publicly that if Michelle were to run, they would prefer to see Lula elected rather than a woman.
- Flávio’s connection to businessman Daniel Vorcaro (who was arrested for orchestrating one of Brazil’s largest bank fraud schemes, involving bribery and attempted murder) caused his standing in the polls to drop following revelations that he had contacted Vorcaro just days before the arrest, addressing him as a friend and associate. His campaign tried to spin the story to claim that Vorcaro was linked to Lula, but it didn't gain traction.
- His choice for vice president faces accusations and investigations of having raped an underage girl and bought her silence for 100.000 reais (US$ 19.000). In his defense, the vice-candidate claimed that the person who committed the rape was his stepson, not him, and even went to the Supreme Court to request a DNA test. Regardless of whether the incident actually occurred, this deals a heavy blow to Flávio's candidacy.
- And on top of all that, his brother, former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, is seen as instigating the imposition of tariffs against Brazil as an act of "revenge against the Brazilian judicial dictatorship that imprisoned his father and forced him into exile in the U.S" in his words. With all that the widespread political perception that Flávio will lose has tainted coalition negotiations, leading right-wing parties to declare neutrality regarding the presidential race rather than supporting him. He might even win, but he will need a lot of things to go right between now and October.
RONALDO CAIADO - Courage to Set Brazil Straight - PSD
Two-term governor of the state of Goiás (a sort of Brazilian Nebraska), Ronaldo Caiado ran for president in 1989 and served as a senator for the same state for many years. He is a figure linked to the agricultural and livestock sector. Gilberto Kassab is his running mate and campaign strategist. His campaign should focus on highlighting that he is not corrupt like Flávio and how Goiás improved under his governorship, in addition to the public pledge to grant amnesty to those involved in the coup attempt, including Jair Bolsonaro.
- Pros
- Right-wing voters might vote for him because he is a candidate with no recent corruption scandals, in addition to his image as a successful businessman. Especially if they want a candidate aligned with Bolsonarism—but one who isn't as closely tied to it as Flávio, yet not as odd as Zema.
- A tough stance on crime is always popular and he will have two minutes of daily airtime to highlight his qualities, with the aim of draining Flávio's support.
- Cons
- Goiás is an economically important but politically irrelevant state. It is a candidacy with an expiration date unless something big happens.
- Despite its tough stance on crime, the Goiás police struggled to capture serial killer Lázaro Barbosa and only managed to kill him after a 20-day manhunt.
- His stance of not retaliating against Trump's tariffs and of granting amnesty to those convicted for the coup attempt is extremely unpopular outside the far right.
ROMEU ZEMA - NOVO
Another right-wing alternative, Zema served two terms as governor of the state of Minas Gerais (which is a swing state). He belongs to the Novo Party, a party that advocates for technocracy and the near-total reduction of the state's functions. His main platform is the privatization of state-owned companies. His running mate, Eduardo Girão, is a senator for the state of Ceará.
- Pros
- His pro-privatization rhetoric enjoys support among business elites and the media as well as his harsh anti-PT rhetoric.
- Cons
- His pro-privatization rhetoric does not sit well with voters, alongside comments characterizing people from the Northeast and North as lazy and dependent on welfare.
- He is, frankly speaking, very stupid: he was tipped to be the running mate on Flávio’s ticket until he attacked him in the wake of the Vorcaro scandal. Not only has he isolated himself, but he is also viewed by the far-right as an opportunistic traitor.
- Despite talk of an efficient state and fiscal adjustment, Minas Gerais defaulted on its debts to the federal government and only resumed payments this year. The state's debt has tripled since 2019 (the first year of his administration).
- He will not be entitled to radio and television campaign time, since his party has little representation in Congress.
RENAN SANTOS - MISSÃO
Representing a more libertarian right-wing electorate, Renan Santos is running as the candidate for the Missão Party. His running mate is retired Colonel Aroldo Medina. His platform advocates for the implementation of Bukele public security measures (such as the creation of CECOTS in the Amazon) and an economic shock therapy approach modeled on the policies Javier Milei is implementing in Argentina. He is the representative of the Brazilian Tea Party, seeking a young, hard-right electorate.
Pros
- He is polling well among voters aged 29 and under, reaching as high as 15%.
It reaches voters who get their information from social media and podcasts, which somewhat offsets the lack of TV and radio airtime.
Cons
- Missão—and its predecessor, the Free Brazil Movement (MBL)—is known for inflammatory, confrontational tactics, such as storming schools to document "left-wing indoctrination policies," infiltrating left-wing protests solely to provoke an assault, and advocating for U.S.-style free speech (leading a lawmaker linked to the group to state that Nazis should be allowed to demonstrate in public—an act that is illegal here). This could lead voters not to vote for Renan out of fear that he might be too radical.
- It doesn't poll well with the rest of the electorate, especially voters outside the South and Southeast.
- His opposition to the Misogyny Law (which seeks to curb the promotion of sexist rhetoric) resonates with the hard-right electorate but is poorly received by the rest, especially women. It does not help that he once declared himself "proudly sexist" on a podcast.
I will not discuss the details of the proposals, but there are some clear proposals shared by everyone on the right and oposed on the left:
- Ideological alignment with the United States
- Weakening of Brazil's ties to non-Western alliances such as BRICS and the pursuit of OECD membership
- Limitations on Supreme Court rulings and the impeachment of judges viewed as "biased"
- Spending cuts and the de-indexation of expenditures.
- Creation of new federal prisons and classification of criminal factions as terrorist organizations, in line with U.S. guidance
- Support for the right-wing populist coalition around the world (Milei, Bukele, Trump, Netanyahu, etc)
Next time I will analyze the scenario of the main electoral colleges.