u/Mr_Hodlerr

Price ripped from ~84k back up toward the 87k highs, but the push faded before it could take them out. Momentum rolled over and the short triggered at ~85,730.

Invalidation is above the highs at 87,035. If we close back up there, the rally was real and I'm wrong.

First target 84,430, full target 82,736. Risking ~1.3k to make ~2.9k, about 1:2.3. It's the 4H, so it needs a day or two to play out.

Short from around 84,320, invalidation at 85,537, first target 83,110, final target 80,085. That is 1:3.4 reward to risk, risking about 1,210 to make about 4,150.

Long from an entry around 1,520, invalidation at 1,486, first target 1,550, full target 1,572. Call it 1.6R, risking about 33 to make about 52.

With all the "AI is going rogue" headlines lately, models scheming in safety tests, agents doing things nobody asked for, this apparently decided the fastest path to alpha was hacking Elon and manipulating the market. The "we never speak of this again" step is what really got me.

Lesson: be very specific with these AI agents.

Though due to clarity bill and FOMC tommorow things are tricky but I never say no to order block based trades.

AI agent flagged the event risk but I still took it as I think liquidity sweeps is what market makers would want to do before the events hit.

BTC pushed up and swept the highs around 80k, grabbing the stops sitting above resistance, then failed and snapped straight back below. That failed push is the liquidity sweep: the move up was there to grab liquidity, not real strength.

Short is the reclaim back under the swept level at ~79,170, invalidation just above the sweep at 80,190.

Ran the order block setup on BTC from 1H all the way to 1D. The win rate held in the 79 to 89% range on every timeframe, which honestly surprised me. But the interesting part is the tradeoffs, not the headline:

• 1H: highest return but the worst drawdown (11%) and you're babysitting it (~10h holds).
• 1D: lowest return but a tiny 2% drawdown and you barely touch it.
• The 4H even got graded down despite a big return, because the edge per trade is thinner.

Big caveat: these are backtested numbers, not live or forward results, so take the return column with a large pinch of salt. I'm sharing the full table with the drawdowns included so you can judge it instead of just a cherry-picked stat. Anyone here actually trade order blocks on BTC, does this line up with what you see?

Price ran the highs, flipped the level, so I'm playing it as a breaker retest. In short around 813, invalidation is a 1H close back above 838, first target 788 at prior demand. Just triggered, managing it 1:1 to start. Anyone else watching ZEC here?

Source

So the Botsfolio AI says there is a setup for long after liquidty has been swept on 4H. THough looks scary and weekend is coming, do you think the trade is valid?