u/Muted_Frosting4684

$MRNA and $MRK say their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda slowed melanoma recurrence and spread in a late-stage trial.

The study was stopped at its first interim analysis after positive results, though detailed efficacy data have not yet been released.

If the benefit holds up, this would mark the first randomized Phase 3 validation of a personalized neoantigen cancer vaccine and could significantly broaden the use of mRNA technology beyond traditional vaccines.

Can’t directly paste the link here so I’m just gonna attach the photos. But it sounds like they’re saying that the bear case is that hyperscalers do genuinely see a demand for higher cloud compute, but that’s only because more datacenters don’t exist yet.

But NVDA trades on forward P/E and if hyperscalers have overcommitted on data centers than those forward numbers are incorrect and this will be the peak for NVDA.

What do you guys think? He wrote a really long post and I know OP posts here too. Please feel free to comment Calcus Cal :)

The takeaway from today’s $MSFT and $META earnings to me was that the AI trade is becoming more selective.

Microsoft Azure grew 43%, with management guiding to roughly 45% constant-currency growth next quarter, but what stood out to me was management’s framing around the breadth of demand. All sequential commercial RPO growth came from customers outside frontier model companies, nearly 90% of Microsoft Cloud revenue came from customers outside those labs. Amy Hood said customers are increasingly building solutions that use “both AI and non-AI infrastructure.”

That argues $MSFT compute cycle is not just tied to OpenAI or other frontier models recycling commitments for Azure. Traditional cloud migration, databases, enterprise applications, agents and non-AI compute are growing alongside AI. CEO Satya Nadella summarized Microsoft’s strategy clearly, “The models are an input,” and under its architecture, “any given model at any given time is swappable.”

This imo is $MSFT showing the market that they are not solely dependent on frontier labs and thus protected against pricing pressure from competitive open-weight/open-source Chinese models. $MSFT benefits whenever customers run any model on Azure, connect it to enterprise data, govern it through Microsoft’s control plane and distribute it through Copilot. Competitive model prices could hurt frontier labs’ margins, but still expand $MSFT’s workloads and overall TAM.

$META on the other hand took a different approach. Their core advertising business remains extremely strong, with ad revenue up 27% and measurable conversion gains from AI, but it spent $31.1 billion on capex in the quarter, generated only $784 million of free cash flow and expects $130–145 billion of 2026 capex.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg was explicit that “right now the open source models are not as strong as the frontier models. So no is the basic answer,” and argued that “sovereignty over building your own models” is strategically necessary. $META, unlike $MAFT is trying to internalize frontier lab risk rather than abstracting it away.

$META could monetize AI through advertising, engagement, agents, messaging and distribution rather than relying only on APIs, but market is, rightfully imo, casting doubts on capex spend towards a much less proven frontier model strategy. Execution has always been a worry with $META as we’ve seen in the past, so I’m not surprised to see this reaction from the market, especially in this environment.

I think based on the reaction we’ve seen post-earnings, there’s a clear trend in the market: bearishness towards scarcity value and pricing power of frontier model (the word I want to use is blocked by the subreddit for some reason).

In my opinion this is the pivotal moment in the AI trade where the market is beginning to demand evidence of revenue conversion, margins and ROIC rather than rewarding capex simply because it is labeled AI.

Not Financial Advice!

$RKLB has been awarded its largest $266M launch contract with U.S. Space Force for Suborbital Launches to date, supporting missile-defense development.

The agreement covers 12 suborbital launches, with options for up to six more.

The first mission is expected no earlier than late 2026, with most launches taking place from a new Rocket Lab location at the Pacific Spaceport Complex-Alaska in Kodiak.