[OC] Europe’s top 10 players and clubs by daily Elo rating, 2012–2026. The GOAT is shining there!

Based on the methodology here, Messi is clearly the GOAT proven once again by the statistics. The data only covers the matches played in Europe so Ronaldo's Al Nasr or Messi's Inter Miami stats are not included. Messi stays on top for a while playing in Miami, which is due to the fact that his rating stayed perceived as "stable" for a while.

The club data exists from earlier seasons as well but because player data only starts at around 2009, I had to start both of them from 2012 where the player elo ratings started being stable.

I would be glad to answer any questions or read your feedback, both positively or negatively!

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 9 days ago

Arsenal or Bayern will win UCL with 45% chance. Brugge got the hardest and Inter got the easiest fixture.

I did monte carlo simulations (10000 runs) with the real fixture multiple times and on average, Arsenal won the title with 23.9% while Bayern had about 20.3%. Barca and PSG followed them with around 10% each.

Based on the average opponent difficulty with my elo ratings:

1 - Club Brugge (1829)

2 - Manchester City (1822)

3 - Sabah (1821)

34 - Porto (1757)

35 - Stuttgart (1750)

36 - Inter (1746)

Source: https://beyondelo.com/simulator

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 1 month ago
▲ 0 r/UEFAChampionsLeague+1 crossposts

Arsenal or Bayern will win UCL with 45% chance. Brugge got the hardest and Inter got the easiest fixture.

*Sorry for reposting. The photos I added were messed up and completely unreadable.

I have been working on building a new elo algorithm while the well-known clubelo is shut down for a while. Rather than pitching my app, I just want to share you some of the results of my algorithm and I want you to judge me on whether it gives reasonable ratings.

My database includes 18 first-tier domestic leagues and 3 European cups covering 1992*-2026. Inspired from chess, I applied something called Rating Deviation which basically indicates how reliable the rating of the team is. Reliability increases with more frequent matches and your gain/loss per match changes based on both your and your opponent's RD value. Playing at home matters as well as the score line. More details are on the dedicated methodology page where I put the math that I used. Feel free to check it out and judge me.

Coming to the title of the post;

I did monte carlo simulations (10000 runs) with the real fixture multiple times and on average, Arsenal won the title with 23.9% while Bayern had about 20.3%. Barca and PSG followed them with around 10% each.

Based on the average opponent difficulty with my elo ratings:

1 - Club Brugge (1829)

2 - Manchester City (1822)

3 - Sabah (1821)

34 - Porto (1757)

35 - Stuttgart (1750)

36 - Inter (1746)

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 1 month ago
▲ 15 r/DoSEO

Is having more indexed pages always better?

Hey everyone, I was wondering the real effect of the number of indexed pages on Google. I have a data heavy app about football; hence, thousands of team pages, player pages, matches pages, all of them in 6 languages etc. Those 19K not indexed pages contain 12K of "discovered, not yet indexed".

My question is whether it is good to let google crawl and try them get indexed fr all pages as I listed above or should I only submit "important" pages?

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 1 month ago

What statistics is interesting but not popular?

I have a football elo website and I want to enrich my content with something unusual to show. Do you guys have any interesting statistics but not much known/discussed? Just throw them here so I may add it to my app.

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 2 months ago

Exchange for a Football Analyst Website

Hey guys, I do have a football elo website for european clubs. Currently at ~5 clicks and ~150 impressions daily. App is 5 months old. Would appreciate it if anybody wanna exchange

beyondelo.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 2 months ago
▲ 9 r/DoSEO

My visibility has increased after using PageSpeed Insights

So as you can see from the last 3 months graph, both my clicks and impressions seem to be increasing for a month. Still rookie numbers obviously but I guess the first steps are the hardest to take. I am not sure how relevant it was but basically I used the Core Web Vitals in GSC to get an overview of my app and the performance was (and still is to some extent) a killer. The page speed, unoptimized photo fetches, db queries etc. was slowing everything down. After taking the recommended steps from PSI, now I got all green except performance but it was also much worse so I am happy with the numbers.

I would be happy to take an advice to boost the performance numbers if you have any.

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 2 months ago

Money or cv?

Hey guys, I've been a working student in Munich at a fairly good company with 1.9k net salary. Now it is time to write my msc thesis and I may have an option to do it at my current company. However, the salary will drop to about 1.2k brutto (net is almost same as I heard from others). I can also do the thesis at a chair in the school while keeping my working student position. However, I am also close to my max duration of working student contract (legally the company cannot hire me more than a fixed amount of time). It will end at the end of March and most of you know the current job market in Germany. Asked HR and got my response as "being a thesis student or a working student is the same while applying to permanent employment".

So I am unsure which direction to go now. How would you proceed?

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 2 months ago

Google is showing my app much more frequently now but I don't know why/how

you may have seen a post on reddit about my football elo website, I posted like 2 or 3 times in different subs since the launch which was almost 4 months ago. The interesting thing is that my website used to get 5-6 impressions per day and barely a click until recently. The graph shows me that my app is shown much more frequently by Google and naturally it has started getting some clicks. It may be that people search more about club's elo with the new season having started but not sure how much of the increase is due to that.

At the end of the last season's ucl final, I also stopped working on the app since there was no update needed for some time. Now, with new season, I thought this may be an opportunity again and I implemented some features like adding the qualification matches from last 30 years, automating a blog creation pipeline (since it is 100% AI content, I don't think it has a big role tho), adding ~7k players to the elo system along with the clubs and some ui polish.

Have not spent a single penny on marketing yet, indeed except those a few Reddit posts, I have had no marketing at all. The results are like that. So I have 2 genuine questions. Why do you think I got this increase and what should I keep doing? Secondly, what should I more on top that I have not done so far?

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 2 months ago

I built my own Elo system but players also got rated. PSG and Harry Kane are the best, it suggests!

After taking a break at the end of last season, I’m getting back into a football Elo website project I was working on, beyondelo. With the new season having started with the qualification rounds already, I’ve told myself to finish the remaining 20% of it. I wanted to share what I've got so far and gather some feedback from you all on what could be improved.

To summarize briefly: yes, big websites like ClubElo already exist, but most of them either have incomplete/narrow data, outdated user interfaces, or completely opaque rating calculation methods. I wanted to build a platform that delivers on all these fronts simultaneously. I initially started with a narrow pool but as new ideas popped up, I kept expanding it. Now, I have a dataset covering around 1,700 teams and over 5,400 players. I used UEFA, Wikipedia, Transfermarkt, ESPN, and FotMob as primary data sources.

Here are a few features I felt were either missing or poorly implemented on other sites:

  • Player Elo ratings alongside teams: (Still collecting player data at the moment; currently, only the last 3 seasons are covered).
  • Multiple and transparent Elo systems: Instead of a single "black box" algorithm, the site hosts multiple Elo systems and lets you interactively test them with teams of your choice and hypothetical match results. Right now, there are two algorithms: FIFA’s national team rating system, and "BeyondElo" (my custom adaptation based on ClubElo's public documentation). It factors in parameters like home advantage, goal difference, and chess-inspired inactivity multipliers so called Rating Deviation.
  • Exclusion of domestic league matches: This is the biggest differentiator. The idea came from researching why Elo ratings differ between Chess.com and Lichess. Elo only truly makes sense within a closed system. Applying that logic here, I figured excluding domestic leagues gives a much cleaner evaluation of a team's actual performance in European competitions. There are obviously trade-offs to this approach, which I'd be happy to discuss in the comments!
  • A cleaner, more intuitive UI: I didn’t write the entire frontend from scratch by hand, but I put a significant amount of effort into polishing it. While a few pages still have that slightly generic "AI slop" look (especially the logo...), I hope the core pages turned out well.
  • Community features: Beyond checking Elo ratings, there’s a Community page where you can drop comments for each match (similar to dedicated match threads on forums), set up private prediction leagues with friends, or join the global public ladder. I’ve implemented this as an MVP, so it feels a bit empty without an active user base right now—and there are bound to be bugs—but it has plenty of room to grow.
  • Customizable themes & multilingual support: Features both light/dark modes, custom theme options, and support for 6 languages, including Turkish.

I’d love to hear your thoughts, feedback, or any questions you might have! Thanks in advance :)

Note: The original post I shared was written in my native language in another sub. Just used AI to translate it but the content is completely natural, just to be clear.

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 3 months ago

Clubelo ama oyuncuların da elosu var

Arkadaşlar herkese iyi forumlar. Geçen sezon bitimiyle ara verdiğim bir futbol elo websitesi projem vardı. Yeni sezonun başlangıcıyla tekrardan gaza gelip %80 oranında bitirdiğim projemi hem göstermek hem de eksikleri için sizden fikir almak istiyorum.

Kısaca özetleyeyim; evet clubelo vb bilinen büyük siteler var ama birçoğunda ya veriler eksik, ya kapsamlı değil, ya arayüz bakımından çok eski ya da kullanılan hesap yöntemi açıkça belirtilmiyor. Ben de bunların tamamını aynı anda daha iyi şekilde sunabilen bir websitesi yapmak istedim. Başta yalnızca top50 + türk takımları gibi dar bir havuzla başlamıştım ancak aklıma fikirler geldikçe ekledim ve şu anda yaklaşık 1700 takım ve 5400'den fazla oyuncudan oluşan bir verisetim var. Kaynak olarak uefa, wikipedia, transfermarkt, espn, fotmob kullandım.

Diğer sitelerde ya olmadığını, varsa da yetersiz olduğunu düşündüğüm bazı özellikler şöyle:

  • Takımlarla beraber oyuncuların da elo puanı olması (oyuncu kısmında henüz veri topluyorum yalnızca son 3 sezon var)
  • Sadece nasıl hesaplandığı gösterilmeyen tek bir elo sistemi yerine birden çok elo sistemini bir arada barındırması ve interaktif olarak bu sistemleri istediğiniz takımlar ve hayali sonuçlar üzerinden deneyimleyebilmenize olanak vermesi (şu an için 2 tane algoritma var. birisi fifa'nın ülkeler için kullandığı sistem diğeri ise clubelo'nun açıklamalarından kendi uyarladığım beyondelo sistemi. ev sahibi avantajı, gol farkı, satranç'taki inaktiflik katsayısı gibi parametreler var)
  • En büyük fark lig maçlarını dahil etmemiş olmam. Bunun sebebi de yine satrançtaki elo sistemi kaynaklı. Chess.com ve Lichess'teki eloların neden farklı olduğunu araştırırken aslında elo puanının aynı sistemde ve "kapalı" bir ortamda anlamlı olduğunu görmemdi. Buradan hareketle yerel liglerin avrupa kupalarına etki etmemesinin avrupa performansını değerlendirmek için daha mantıklı olduğunu düşündüm. Dolayısıyla bütün ratingler tamamen avrupa'da oynanan maçların sonucu. Bunun dezavantajları da var tabii, isterseniz yorumlarda tartışabiliriz.
  • Daha derli toplu ve anlaşılır bir arayüz. Tabii ki oturup bütün frontendi elle yazmadım ancak hatrı sayılır şekilde üzerine düştüğüme inanıyorum. Hala ai slop gibi gözüken bazı sayfalar olmakla birlikte (hele logo...) asıl sayfaların tasarımı umarım iyi olmuştur.
  • Elo puanlarını görmekle birlikte community sayfasıyla her maç için yorumlarınızı yapabilir (ekşisözlükte her maç öncesi açılan başlıkların toplandığı yer gibi bir şey) arkadaşlarınızla kendinize özel tahmin turnuvaları oluşturabilir ya da herkese açık olan global turnuvada tahminlerinizi yapabilirsiniz. bu özelliği mvp seviyesinde ekledim ancak aktif kullanıcı gerekeceği için şu aşamada işlevsiz duruyor. muhtemelen birçok bug da vardır ama ileride gelişmeye açık.
  • light/dark dışında kişiselleştirilebilir tema ve Türkçe dahil 6 dil desteği

Her türlü yorumunuz ve sorunuz için şimdiden teşekkür ederim :)

NOT: Merak edenler ama siteye girmek istemeyenler için Galatasaray 1659 puanla 39., Fenerbahçe 1617 puanla 51. sırada.

https://preview.redd.it/bsziyqdkl9fh1.png?width=1897&format=png&auto=webp&s=08442cf4f22a051198d87240b047380a889c2377

https://preview.redd.it/jt4wa081k9fh1.png?width=1893&format=png&auto=webp&s=325986b784dedd999030e4c492d49bc770adaa44

https://preview.redd.it/1etjk4kik9fh1.png?width=1861&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e44c73f7fd73dab3fa7141f4058a6ef80d1d96d

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 3 months ago

1 yıllık bedava Google AI Pro bitmek üzere

Geçen sene eylül ayı civarında öğrencilere 1 senelik ücretsiz Google AI pro verilmişti. Gemini olsun Antigravity olsun baya kullanışlı bir şey ama yakinda bitecek. Hem unutanlara hatirlatma olsun hem de bunu yenilemenin bir yolunu bilen varsa digerlerini aydinlatirsa cok iyi olur.

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 3 months ago

Çöpçülerin maaşı hk.

EDIT: Arkadaslar burada ana fikir çöpçüler degildi aslinda. Toplumsal ahlak geregi sakınılması gereken bir durumun yine toplumun baska bir kesimine zarar verecek olmasi durumunda ahlaken bunu nasil justify ederiz seklinde bir ahlak felsefesi sorusuydu. Tabii ki çöpler bitmez ya da yerlerin kirlenmesi sadece yere atılan çöplerden kaynaklanmiyor.

Ilkokulda bir arkadasin esprisi uzerine 20 senedir yer yer aklima gelen bir soru var: "Yere çöp atmazsak çöpçüler nasıl para kazanacak?"

Ilk bakista sacma gelebilir ve toplanan çöp miktarinin maaşa etki etmedigi dusunulebilir ancak bunu kolektif olarak yorumladigimizda gercekten genel bir temizlik olursa ihtiyaç fazlasından dolayi bazı çöpçüler orta vadede işsiz kalmaz mı?

Ayni iliskiyi kimse camiye gitmezse imamlar nasıl para kazanacak ya da kimse alkol almazsa tekeller nasıl para kazanacak gibi versiyonlara da uyarlayabiliriz ancak çöpçüyü ayıran şey objektif olarak yerlere çöp atmamanın herkesin görevi olmasi. Imam veya tekel durumunda camiye gitmek/gitmemek, alkol kullanmak/kullanmamak bireysel tercihlere bağlı.

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 4 months ago

YT Shorts'daki Mini Futbol Oyunları

Herkese selamlar, takip edenler bilir HTalks ve Erman Abi'nin onlarca shorts videosu olan bir oyunu var; aynı anda takım söyleyip her ikisinde de oynamış oyuncuyu ilk söylemek. Transfermarkt Instagram hesabi da zaman zaman oyuncunun kariyer gecmisini verip bu kim yorumlara yazin tarzi etkileşim kasma postları atardı.

Eger insanlar bu tip mini oyunlari oynamayı ve yarismayi seviyorsa diye dusunerek bu tip oyunlarin bulundugu bir site yapmak istedim. Henuz sadece 3 oyun ekledim ancak farkli oyunlar da aklimda. Fikrinizi merak ettigim nokta ise bu sitede insanlari tekrar getirebilecek, geldiginde oynatabilecek neler ekleyebilirim? Siz ne olsun isterdiniz?

Bu konseptte halihazırda 2-3 guzel site buldum ancak arayuz olarak genelde eskiler ve oyuncu verileri de genellikle guncel degil. Oyun cesitliligi ve oyuncu/takim verisinin guncelligi+buyuklugu en onemli etkenler doye dusunuyorum. Simdilik 3000 (2700 guncel, 300 emekli) oyuncu ve yaklasik 1000 takimlim bir veri setim var.

Ozetle oyunlar şunlar:
1-Blend Face: Farkli oyuncu yuzlerinin karistirildigi ve aslinda kim olduklarinin soruldugu tahmin oyunu
2-Career Grid: 3x3 bir tabloda sütun ve satırda verilen takim/ulke/pozisyonu saglayan oyuncularla tabloyu en hizli surede doldurmak
3-Career Path: Transfer kariyeri verilen oyuncunun kim oldugunu bulmak. Burada daha doygun hissiyat icin dunya haritasi kullandim.

Herkese tesekkurler simdiden. Reklam olmamasi icin site linki veremedim maalesef.

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 4 months ago
▲ 4 r/WebGames+1 crossposts

A Football Mini-Game Hub

I do not have a very well-made story to backup my app tbh, I just like football and wanted to make a game hub consisting of the mini games that I have been seeing on Youtube shorts.

For now, I only have 3 games but I will be adding up to 11 games to match the brand name Remix XI. The idea of the app is simple. Each game has a daily challenge that refreshes at midnight. Your task is to solve the puzzle in time and climb on the leaderboard.

  • Career Path: You guess the player based on his transfer journey over his career.
  • Career Grid: You solve a 3x3 grid based on the given club/country/position at each row and column. The solution is not unique obviously so be as quick as possible.
  • Face Blend: You are given a face generated by AI and try to find out the faces that it was blended from. (Though, this game is not perfect due to image generation limitation of the AI models, let me know your comments)

Needless to say that no money, no sign-up, no ads. Just play and fun.

One cool feature might be the database of the players that I am currently collecting. So far, I am at ~3k players and try to expand it every day. It might be a good source for some of you.

Let me know your feedback especially for bugs and missing players. I love to hear all of them. Thanks a lot :)

remix11.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 4 months ago

A Football Mini-Game Hub

I only have 3 games so far and looking for feedback on the existing games and new game suggestions. The idea of the app is simple. Each game has a daily challenge that refreshes at midnight. Your task is to solve the puzzle in time and climb on the leaderboard.

  • Career Path: You guess the player based on his transfer journey over his career.
  • Career Grid: You solve a 3x3 grid based on the given club/country/position at each row and column. The solution is not unique obviously so be as quick as possible.
  • Face Blend: You are given a face generated by AI and try to find out the faces that it was blended from. (Though, this game is not perfect due to image generation limitation of the AI models, let me know your comments)
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 4 months ago

Football Game Hub with Daily Challenges

I do not have a very well-made story to backup my app tbh, I just like football and wanted to make a game hub consisting of the mini games that I have been seeing on Youtube shorts.

For now, I only have 3 games but I will be adding up to 11 games to match the brand name Remix XI. The idea of the app is simple. Each game has a daily challenge that refreshes at midnight. Your task is to solve the puzzle in time and climb on the leaderboard.

  • Career Path: You guess the player based on his transfer journey over his career.
  • Career Grid: You solve a 3x3 grid based on the given club/country/position at each row and column. The solution is not unique obviously so be as quick as possible.
  • Face Blend: You are given a face generated by AI and try to find out the faces that it was blended from. (Though, this game is not perfect due to image generation limitation of the AI models, let me know your comments)

Needless to say that no money, no sign-up, no ads. Just play and fun.

One cool feature might be the database of the players that I am currently collecting. So far, I am at ~3k players and try to expand it every day. It might be a good source for some of you.

Let me know your feedback especially for bugs and missing players. I love to hear all of them. Thanks a lot :)

u/Parking-Leader4676 — 4 months ago

Still need to think like a dev even if you do vibe coding. No?

With Opus 4.8 out there already, I was hopeful that now Claude will work like a charm without me having to give a very detailed prompt, mentioning handful of skills to avoid generic ai-slop design, asking several security and performance measures etc.

But it is still not good enough. Once you worry about your app's performance, speed of your sql queries, unnecessary api calls, you can actually see that "hey Claude can you do this app for me?" apps actually suck at so many places.

I believe so many devs here get angry when they see a post saying "I made bla bla bla app, please give me feedback" and what you see is just another ai-slop with no real developer mind applied at all.

Maybe it is not ethical but I always do try hacking vibe coded apps (including mine) whose owners share them as if they are the next Elon Musk. No dude, your app sucks so badly that you do not even have a backend, just used supabase postgREST in your frontend.

So many people are building stuff with the hope of getting a lot of users but actually when you do get hundreds of users, your app will just crash or someone will definitely break into your database.

Saying all these, I do not even think I know enough about webdev; yet, the principles I follow to have a somewhat good quality vibe coded app are already taking so much time that there is no way $20 claude plan is enough to complete one of those apps in a week. Just setting a dev/int/prod env with moderate ci/cd already takes a day or so.

Unless I request, all AI models tend to use http connections (no websockets, no eventsource, no graphql...). They have no idea of optimized api requests at the first shot.

So long story short, am I being so "jealous" of those who have no thinking of a dev mind but having successful apps or is it actually that the average quality of apps has drastically fallen down which kinda bothers me due to the feeling of unfairness.

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 5 months ago

Background check for Germany

Hey guys, been doing DA for a month but did not get any project after the qualifications which is expected because I have not completed the check yet.

I got an email for background check via checkr like 2 weeks ago. Since I am based in Germany, they require a police investigation that can only be received by post here. I applied to it but it is still not delivered so I just uploaded the payment confirmation (for the certificate) because today was the dur date of the check. Is there anyone who had this situation and knows how to proceed once I got the certificate?

reddit.com
u/Parking-Leader4676 — 5 months ago