Q3 2025

>George Gianarikas: Thank you. And maybe just, I know it's early, but I'd like to understand how you think we should think about 2026 and 2027, maybe, and just sort of the way we should model the ramp in your revenue, OpEx, cash burn, just so we can have sort of a sense of a new model over the next couple of years? Thank you.

>Kobi Marenko: So I think '26, most of our revenues will come from non-automotive, which we see right now a great ramp-up from this business. As I mentioned, from almost every vertical that we are touching, we see orders and repeated orders from different sectors, from yachts, from small cities, all of that are bringing more and more orders, and we believe that next year we should expect a nice amount of revenues from non-automotive. The second part of it is the ramp-up of revenues from China from hiring. We still don't have the final visibility on the exact month that it will start, but we believe that we will see some revenues from common vessels in China as well.

>Karine Pinto-Flomenboim: Just to complete for your understanding of the OpEx, so as Kobi mentioned, next year will be non-automotive. Our current OpEx structure supports those revenues. And also going towards '27, so we assume a stable level of OpEx not increasing too much, and towards the ramp-up of the automotive, we will see a ramp-up, of course, in headcount, mainly customer base, to support this ramp-up.

Source: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/11/17/arbe-robotics-arbe-q3-2025-earnings-transcript/

These are all customer - direct roles.

2026 is almost at its end. There should be more evidences of customer - facing roles to signal an automotive ramp - up.

The M2 drone was announced to utilised Amprius high - density cells

>FREMONT, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Amprius Technologies, Inc. (“Amprius” or the “Company”) (NYSE: AMPX), a leader in silicon anode lithium-ion batteries, and Matternet, the world’s only FAA Type Certified drone delivery company, today announced a strategic collaboration to advance the performance and economics of autonomous aerial delivery through high-energy density silicon anode cells. Amprius cells are now deployed in Matternet’s M2 aircraft, and the companies are extending their work to battery solutions optimized for Matternet's next-generation platform.

>With Amprius cells already flying in Matternet’s M2 fleet, the companies are now focused on deeper integration for Matternet’s next-generation platform, with Amprius targeting volume production readiness aligned with Matternet’s fleet expansion plans beginning in early 2027.

Source: https://ir.amprius.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/168/amprius-and-matternet-partner-to-advance-drone-delivery

The M3 was unveiled recently and the clue is in the title.

Matternet Unveils M3, Its Next-Generation Autonomous Drone Delivery Platform

>Matternet is targeting the second half of 2027 for the start of M3 commercial service and plans to build manufacturing capacity for the M3 aircraft in the United States. Matternet will also draw on its strategic partnership with SoftBank Robotics America, announced in April 2026, to accelerate deployment of its delivery networks in the U.S. and other key markets.

Source: https://www.matternet.com/newsroom/matternet-unveils-m3-its-next-generation-autonomous-drone-delivery-platform

"Next - gen"

Edit: Reposted as Reddit removed the OP due to it containing Linkedin url.

Just a quick thought based on what I have in my repository.

Amprius Q2 2026 EC:

Eric Stine

But I know that one of the things and you mentioned it is getting those suppliers under contract. So, maybe -- I know last quarter, you indicated that you had made some progress in that regard but would love an update.

Tom Stepien

Some of this is just legal reviews tend to take time. We're comfortable with the cost and the timing. In general, these new suppliers are large international companies that are actually larger revenue-wise than risk.

Thoughts: Amprius's suppliers are likely to be large international companies, or at least directly tied to one in the up stream chain.

Tim Moore

Would you -- without giving away too much, are you getting close to maybe purchasing an existing facility in the U.S. to retool to convert to pouch cell manufacturing? I'm sure there's some excess capacity from lithium batteries out there by a handful of players I can think of for EVs that you could retool.

Ricardo Rodriguez

Yeah, Tim, I mean, you're basically reading our mind, right? It's no secret that we're out there looking for a partner to do that for us, and there's plenty of capacity from folks who leaned into EVs maybe too aggressively here over the past couple of years. And so, we would just say stay tuned.

Thoughts: So excess capacity tells me that whoever is manufacturing these lithium battery production line is suffering from some kind of financial losses - there is a good amount of manufacturing redundancy.
Tom Stepien spoke about fully - NDAA domestic manufacturing as early as April 2026 during a CNBC interview so searches must have begun at least 6 - 12 months before.

If Amprius were to minimise retrofitting cost, the ideal production line would be one that is maximally similar to a production line capable of manufacturing silicon anode, in pouch cell format and immediate access for retrofitting.

Turning time back to 03-10-2022

The technology GM is interested in involves adding more silicon to battery anodes by fusing nanowires of the material with graphite. Silicon can store 10 times more energy than graphite, opening the door to potential increases in energy density, according to GM.

GM has also been banking on lithium-metal cells as a way to carry its current large pouch cell format ahead to a second generation Ultium cell, for up to 600-mile vehicles in the future.

Source: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1137329_gm-silicon-anode-battery-tech-more-range-lower-cost

Thoughts: So GM is not only interested in silicon anode batteries using nanowires but also silicon anode batteries in pouch cell format.

Fast forward to 29-10-2025:

General Motors cutting thousands of jobs at its EV, battery plants

The automaker cites cooling demand of electric vehicles for its decision to scale back production, laying off more than 3,400 in the process.

GM anticipates that production at the Ohio and Tennessee Ultium Cell battery plants will resume by mid-2026. 

Thoughts: But what about the Lansing, Michigan, Ultium Cell plant?

Going back to 02-12-2024: GM to sell stake in Lansing battery cell plant to partner LG Energy Solution  

General Motors (NYSE: GM) has reached a non-binding agreement to sell its stake in the nearly completed Ultium Cells LLC battery cell plant in Lansing, Michigan to its joint venture partner LG Energy Solution. The transaction is expected to close in the 2025 first quarter, subject to customary closing conditions. 
LG Energy Solution will have immediate access to the nearly completed Lansing facility to begin the installation of equipment.    

Source: https://investor.gm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gm-sell-stake-lansing-battery-cell-plant-partner-lg-energy

Some mentioned SK On - happy to see the reasoning.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/09/28/amprius-ceo-tom-stepien-we-are-bringing-drone-battery-production-to-the-us.html

>Alerion is designed as an ultra-high-resolution sensing layer within multi-sensor counter-UAS architectures, holding the track continuously from first detection to minimum range.
Built on Arbe's ultra-high-resolution radar architecture, Alerion pairs that sensing with a solid-state design that is small, lightweight, low-power, and low-cost - the profile defense programs refer to as low SWaP-C (size, weight, power, and cost). This makes Alerion practical for fixed, vehicle-mounted, and portable systems.

Alerion is designed as one of the many components within a platform.

Two U - CAS product offered by Elbit fits this

- White Owl: Low SWaP, Low SWaP configuration of the legacy airborne PAWS™, family of Missile Warning System
https://www.elbitsystems.com/autonomous/aerial/uav-payloads/white-owl

- Red Sky 2 Drone Defender System: system consisting of RS, TJ MD, CU.

>Radar system (RS) - The radar system is the fifth generation of 3D Tactical Air Defense Radars; X-Band, solid-state electronically scanned, pulse-Doppler radar provide a reliable, real-time aerial picture of targets, accurate target measurements of velocity, range, azimuth and elevation angles, target detection and tracking.

Sounds familiar. The Alerion seems to serve as an RS component within the Red Sky 2 DDS.

2025 P/S ratio: 125.

2026 revenue guidance: $4M - $6M.
Revenue YTD: $1.1M so an assumption based on equal split between Q3 2026, Q4 2026 puts revenue at ~$1.5M for Q3 2026, ~$1.5M for Q4 2026.

Q3 2026 P/S: 70
Q4 2026 P/S: 70

The declining P/S ratio demonstrates valuation catching up to revenue: share price has plunged but revenue has also strengthen since YTD 2026.

Annualised 2026 P/S ratio based on low - range guidance: 22.5
Annualised 2026 P/S ratio based on high - range guidance: 16

Assume a "fair" annualised P/S ratio of 100 and a low - range guidance of $4M:

(100/22.5) * $0.8 (current share price) = $3.2

Assume a "fair" annualised P/S ratio of 100 and a upper - range guidance of $6M:

(100/16) * $0.8 (current share price) = $4.8

If we assume a more conservative P/S ratio of 60 and a low - range guidance of $4M:

(60/22.5) * $0.8 (current share price) = ~$2.2

With an upper - range guidance of $6M:

(60/16) * $0.8 (current share price) = ~$3.2

*Red dot based on $4M revenue guidance for 2026

Conference replay: https://event.summitcast.com/view/WuFmFdTcA9mVsUGHZJFU62/Rq47eXXogLFsoy95XKdUYF

https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/13/uber-nuro-san-francisco-testing-premium-robotaxi-service/

https://x.com/nuro/status/2034593225982533839

https://eletric-vehicles.com/lucid/nuro-says-it-has-almost-100-lucid-gravity-evs-in-robotaxi-engineering-fleet/

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/05/lucid-is-testing-100-robotaxis-with-uber-and-nuro-while-executing-a-usd1-4-billion-cash-overhaul-here-s-whether-it-s-enough-to-turn-the-stock-around/

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260730129767/en/Amprius-Technologies-Sets-Upcoming-Conference-Schedule

https://event.summitcast.com/view/WuFmFdTcA9mVsUGHZJFU62/guest\_book?session\_id=BJozwd5ppLouHv55gkY9An

Replay and transcript (link to Amprius replay)

• Defense and homeland security deliveries: Arbe's technology was selected by a leading global defense and homeland security system integrator, and the parties signed a framework collaboration agreement covering three joint projects, with plans to expand cooperation into additional initiatives. Arbe has begun deliveries of radar systems directly from its production line, with additional shipments expected as production ramps.
• Robotaxi systems with Arbe on the road: Building on the previously reported robotaxi engagements, Arbe's radar systems have been integrated into vehicles that have commenced on-road trials. Arbe continues to be engaged in active bid processes with additional robotaxi players.
• Progress in China with HiRain: Arbe's Tier 1 HiRain, a leading supplier offering a portfolio of radar systems based on Arbe's chipset, has advised Arbe that it is progressing toward production, currently planned for the beginning of 2027, delivering on the previously announced order from its L4 OEM customer. HiRain is also competing in meaningful RFIs and RFQs.
• Progress with OEMs actively testing advanced radar solutions: Arbe is actively participating in evaluations together with its Tier 1s to replace the OEMs' existing radar technologies. Arbe is regarded as the leading ultra-high-resolution radar provider for L3 and higher autonomy.
• Broader radar applications: Sensrad, a Tier 1 supplying imaging radar based on Arbe's chipset for defense and commercial applications, announced a new collaboration with VirtuRail, which is integrating the radar into its automated service vehicles for underground tunnel construction. Arbe continues to supply chipsets to Sensrad, supporting Sensrad's customers Watchit, Forterra, and Tianyi. Arbe is also directly engaged in additional non-automotive programs at various stages of evaluation.
• Continued revenue growth: Arbe's new strategy of focusing on broader markets with more immediate revenue potential delivered results. Revenue growth in the quarter was due to increased chipset sales to automotive Tier 1s, radar system sales for defense and civilian programs, and ongoing engineering and development services.
• Efficiency measures: At the same time, Arbe is focused on maintaining a low expense footprint and more efficient operations. The full impact of the approximately 15% expense reduction initiated in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be reflected in the third quarter of 2026. Management believes that the current balance sheet, with around $42 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term bank deposits, combined with ongoing revenue growth and a targeted reduction in cash burn to below $7 million per quarter, extends the Company's cash runway to execute on its growth plans.

Management Comments

Kobi Marenko, President and Co-Founder of Arbe, commented, "We are pleased with our performance in the second quarter, making solid progress. In automotive, our radar systems are now installed in robotaxi vehicles that have begun on-road trials. In defense and homeland security, we have started delivering systems that have been successfully field-tested. We see strong demand, with customers and potential customers requiring our radar solutions for immediate needs."

Ram Machness, Chief Executive Officer of Arbe, commented, "Our strategy of diversifying sales into new markets with immediate needs and shorter sales cycles is paying off, reflected in a clear revenue growth trend. Growth in the quarter came from our expanding customer base across automotive, defense, and civilian programs. We believe that these sales are evidence that our transition from a chipset supplier to a complete radar technology provider is opening up new and diversified markets for us with revenue potential in both the short and long-term."

Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Highlights

Revenues for Q2 2026 were $0.7 million, compared to $0.3 million in Q2 2025. Backlog as of June 30, 2026, amounted to $1 million.

Gross loss for Q2 2026 was around $0, compared to a gross loss of $0.2 million in Q2 2025. 

Operating expenses in Q2 2026 were $9.8 million, compared to $11.3 million in Q2 2025.

Source: https://ir.arberobotics.com/news/press-releases/detail/181/arbe-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results

More than 100% increase in revenue with $0 gross loss! OpEx has also creased by almost 20%.

Trying to figure this one out.

u/RefrigeratorTasty912 first mentioned about Sensrad's collaboration with Virturail 27-07-2026.

However, based on Sensrad's website this collaboration was materialised on 07-07-2026. Arbe was not mentioned by Sensrad. The astute reader may infer from "Sensrad's Hugin D1 4D imaging radar" that Arbe is the supplier of the radar chipset for Sensrad - but one cannot argue that most superficial investor is aware of this fact.
Source: https://www.sensrad.com/news/sensrad-and-virturail-collaborate

Fast forward to 31-07-2026:
Arbe made the same announcement but with an explicit mention of itself.
Source: https://ir.arberobotics.com/news/press-releases/detail/179/arbe-tier-1-sensrad-announces-collaboration-with-virturail

So why? Why isn't Sensrad mentioning Arbe? The Q2 2026 Gapwaves earning call appears to suggest that Sensrad and Arbe are "frenemies".
Is the inherent tension between OEM and component supplier at play here?

As a component supplier, Arbe has zero visibility to the market. To me, this changed in the Q1 2026 when Arbe mentioned that it has now setup dedicated radar system production lines - this means direct to business interaction to by - pass tier - 1s which also requires that capital market re-rate Arbe not as a component supplier but in the same way that Gapwave is rated.

Related recent topics:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ARBE_Investors/comments/1v33sck/nhtsa_targets_tesla8217s_8216radar_saves_us8217/

NHTSA targets Tesla’s ‘Radar Saves Us’ document in FSD crash probe

https://electrek.co/2026/07/21/nhtsa-tesla-radar-saves-us-document-fsd-probe/

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/23/tesla-has-no-business-without-solving-full-self-driving-ross-gerber.html