u/Railroader17

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Previous Post for context can be found HERE

Reminder that I am operating under what I call the “Multi-Battle Clause”, in that if I am in a portion of the game where I am given a partner that runs around with me, I do not have to count any encounters in that space until that portion ends or I actually catch something. I.E if I have Hugh with me in the Sewers, I do not have to count anything I run into down there as my encounter until either he leaves, or I catch something despite him being around.

Also I am amending Dupes clause to make exceptions for Mons that are Retired. I.E if a mon is retired, I may catch a new one of that same line, but only as a new encounter in a new location.

Drayden:

Encounters:

Reversal Mountain Exterior Normal Grass: Camus the Trapinch Flygon: Apparently taught Laegjarn everything she knows in Trapinch school, except the part about how to navigate a Pursuit trap, that was the substitute teacher’s fault. One thing is for sure though, he has the Atk stat to prove it with 24 IVs in that stat, and 22 IVs in Def. Everything else though… leaves a bit to be desired. Good option for Drayden though… que the Take Down crit from a random Camerupt in Reversal Mountain. God DAMMIT. I think this is a sign that I wasn’t meant to use Flygon like, at all this time around.

Reversal Mountain Exterior Dark Grass: Michalis the Skarmory: 15 Def IVs and 9 HP IVs are less than ideal on a physical tank like this, but 31 SpDef IVs and 22 Atk IVs is certainly workable. Especially when it has Sturdy and Spikes. Possible candidate for the E4?

Strange House: Henry the Banette: A quirky little fellow who followed us through the Strange House, ambushing us on our way out, and boy howdy are we happy to have him. With Near perfect Atk IVs and decent Speed. But he also has some pretty strong priority in Sucker Punch and Shadow Sneak available to him, not to mention Will-o-Wisp.

Reversal Mountain Interior: Laevatein the Numel: She’s pretty simple. Decent Atk IVs, good SpDef and Speed IVs, horrible IVs in HP, Def, and SpDef. But she provided us with a Rawst Berry, so she helped a little, even if she probably isn’t leaving the box outside of an emergency.

Undella Town: Starlight the Staryu: Near perfect Def IVs on an Impish water type is amazing. Except when it’s a freaking STARYU. And it doesn’t even have a decent SpAtk IV to take advantage of despite the bad nature! In fact it has a SpAtk IV of 2.

Route 14 Normal Grass: Felix the Absol: Naive nature good, IVs less than 5 in both Atk and Speed bad. But at least it knows Swords Dance naturally, learns Night Slash soon for crit fishing with Super Luck, and eventually gets Sucker Punch. An E4 member if I ever saw one with the right tools.

Route 14 Dark Grass: Sumia the Altaria: Decently promising. Adamant with 10 Atk IVs is less than ideal, especially when she has near perfect SpAtk IVs and could have been Modest instead. But a mixed attacker role could work for her. Route 13 Normal Grass: Bonaparte the Tangela: Solid physical tank, but not much else. Solid pivot for Marlon at least. 18 HP IVs and 25 Def IVs, but Lonely nature and no attacking IVs above 10 is a choice. Was supposed to be a Lunatone, but my DS’s fault battery strikes again, wiping it from existence, and forcing me to take a Tangela instead. (R.I.P Hodr the Lunatone and your amazing Def and SpDef IVs)

Route 13 Static: Eliwood the Cobalion: Responsible for sending Frederick to his retirement, but with near perfect IVs in Atk, SpDef, and Speed, not to mention some pretty good Def IVs, he is absolutely going to be pulling his weight. Also this thing gets Volt Switch and Thunder Wave for pivoting and utility!

Route 13 Dark Grass: Tsubaki the Drifblim: Has Unburden for Gem strats, and we do have Acrobatics for Acrogem shenanigans on Marshall later on. Could make it’s way onto the E4 Team.

Lostlorn Hidden Grotto: Ferdinand the Male Combee: Has his Hidden Ability at least, but yeah no it’s fucking COMBEE bro is getting banished to the retirement box, not even worth using. Like the only use he has is guaranteeing the Pinsir encounter on Route 12.

Route 12 (All non-shaking grass encounters are duped out): Leonie the Pinsir: Pretty much guaranteed, but has only 3 Atk IVs, which sucks on a Naughty nature Pinsir, WITH MOLD BREAKER, AND NEAR PERFECT SPEED IVs.

Village Bridge Normal Grass: Mozu the Golduck: -Speed nature is less than ideal, but she does have good SpAtk and HP IVs at least.

Village Bridge Rippling Water: Arete the Lapras: Relaxed nature for extra defense is nice since Lapras isn’t a speedy mon anyways, Water Absorb is a great tool for potential water types it might need to switch in on, and solid IVs across the board, including near perfect HP IVs, honestly one of the best statted mons of the entire run.

Village Bridge Dark Grass: Metody the Seviper: Relaxed nature is ok? But a Def IV of 7 leaves a lot to be desired. Probably just sitting in the box.

Route 11 Static: Lyn the Virizion: I had high hopes for her, sadly fate opted to squander them with single digit Atk & SpAtk IVs. But if I want to just obliterate Marlon’s team I’ve got the mon to do it with.

Route 11 Normal Grass: Hawkeye the Gligar. He only has 1 IV that is more than one digit, and it’s HP at 14. Atk & SpAtk are both 1, Def is 8 (with a Hasty nature), and both Speed & SpDef are are whopping 3. Why? WHY?!? WHYYYYYYYYYY?!?!?

Route 9: Shamir the Pawniard: Was hopeful given her near perfect Speed IVs, and excellent HP & SpDef IVs. But she only has 3 Atk IVs. She also has Inner Focus which is good for Fake Out stopping but that doesn’t make up for her being a Special Defensive tank when she’s supposed to be an attacker! I even nicknamed her after one of my favorite FE Characters of all time to… =(

MVP: Arete the Lapras: She more or less solo’d the majority of the Opelucid gym. With a little help from The Vaike, Camilla, and Xander due to the Triple & Rotation battles, and Drayden’s Haxorus surviving an Ice Beam & Dragon Tailing her out into Xander, and getting off two dragon dances to make things a bit scary. BUT, we pulled through!

Thoughts:

Probably the longest split of the entire nuzlocke so far in terms of length of time to complete. Mainly due to burn out on the run and wanting to start an Emerald Nuzlocke. But, I’m determined to finish this one first.

I’m absolutely starting to regret my encounter system now, catching and calcing has been a bit of a slog when I’m having to do it for so many Pokemon at a time, especially when I get a ton of bad encounters so close to each other. I’ll probably trim it down a ton the next time I play a Gen 5 game, and trim it down for Gens 3 & 4 to 1 Land encounter & 1 Water Encounter each.

But, I know that I have at least 2/3 of my Elite 4 squad on my team now (I.E The Vaike, Xander, and Camilla), but I need something that can handle Marshall, but maybe that mon is in the box already in Henry?

Scratch the above, turns out Stealth Rock is NOT a TM in BW2, it is a Move Tutor Move in Nacarene City after the Nuzlocke would end. So now I have to grind Michalis up to snuff with the rest of the team since he’s the only mon with Sturdy that I have that also has a Hazard move! Because my plan was to have Xander lead against Iris’ Hydreigon to set up Stealth Rocks, proc’ing sturdy on the Surf to then sac it to bring in the Haban Berry using Camilla in safely to use Dragon Dance, and then sweep from there. But now that’s in the toilet unless I either pivot to Michalis, or go for a risky Sandstorm strat, or go for an also risky Dual Chop strat over Dragon Claw.

Though shoutouts to the Nuzlocke gods for smiting my attempt to skirt around the dupes clause.

1. For Cai, we see that he has D in Swords and Axes, C in Lances, Light Magic and Cavalry, and an E-Rank in everything else. Of note though is that for Cai, Swords, Lances, Light Magic, and Cavalry all have a golden hue to their icon, while Bows and Flying have a blueish hue, and everything else has no hue to it. Does this perhaps mean that Cai has a talent for Swords, Lances, Light Magic and Cavalry skills, and a weakness in Bows and Flying? Ultand is a bit harder to tell, but she seems to be proficient in Lances, Light Magic, Cavalry, and Flying Classes, with a Weakness in Swords.

I saw someone discussing this next point on Twitter in Japanese (and sadly forgot to like the post before scrolling away), but I figured I should bring it up anyways.

2. Cai and Ultand are in completely different classes in the Japanese trailer. With Cai appearing to be in a normal Cavalry class, while Ultand appears to be in the Sorcerer Diviner class. (But google translate could be wrong on that. Edit: Per the comments, Google was wrong, she's actually in the Diviner class) However, what I want to point out is that while the skill levels are different between the two trailers, it also appears that while Priest has Axes, Brawling, Reason Magic, Light Magic, Authority, and Infantry skills highlighted, “Sorcerer” Diviner on the other hand also has Swords highlighted, while both classes have Lances, Bows, Cavalry, Armor, and Flying dimmed. Cai meanwhile has everything but Swords, Lances, Axes, and Cavalry dimmed for both classes (with Flying being dimmed for his Cavalry class.). Perhaps this indicates that class based weapon restrictions will be returning. This could also indicate that Battalions will only be usable by Infantry classes to give them an edge over their more mobile counterparts (no word yet on armor classes though), as Ultand’s two classes have Authority highlighted, while Cai’s are shaded.

Fair warning this is fairly "potato" caliber tinfoil hat theory with not a ton to support it. But I think there is enough here to work with to justify it.

Also, spoilers for Genealogy of the Holy War, and mild spoilers for Engage.

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We know what most of our main characters main goals are, Cai wants to save his dad, Leda wants revenge against some unknown party, most likely for pillaging her hometown and possibly kidnapping a family member if that one shot of her crying out with her arm outstretched is any indication, and Theodora wants power to protect her people and establish herself as a ruler.

Dietrich however gives us very little aside from him wanting to fight or kill someone and or something. Which isn’t a ton, especially when Leda already has a revenge arc going for heroes I don’t think it’s a simple revenge killing. What does make Dietrich interesting is that he has the Crest of Lamine showing a clear connection to the Martritz family, as well as Murderous Intent, and a Heroes Relic in the Answerer, on top of that one scene in the teaser where he fights the gun nun, mainly because GUN NUN.

There has also been plenty of talk about where in the timeline this fits with Three Houses. Is it a prequel? Perhaps, but then IS runs the risk of introducing a retcon that winds up affecting how people view Three Houses. Maybe it’s happening at the same time as Three Houses, but then how is Sothis appearing in her adult form unless it’s a flashback or something? Maybe time travel? But that doesn’t really help us pinpoint Fortune’s Weave’s placement in the timeline.

Which brings me to the idea that it’s a sequel. Which itself is pretty dangerous territory, as that would potentially require IS to either acknowledge a certain route as being the canon route, render them all non-canon, or set the game so far into the future that no one remembers what really happened.

However, I don’t think IS would do that either, as that would completely and utterly diminish everything that happened in Three Houses to the point that it essentially wouldn’t matter anymore. In fact, in an interview with Famitsu after Three Hopes release they explicitly say outright that they didn’t want to invalidate Byleth or their efforts by having it seem like everyone was better off without them, not to mention saying outright that all routes are equally canon, and it’s on the player to judge for themselves which route is canon, so unless IS had a change of heart on this, it wouldn’t make sense for them to suddenly walk it back.

So then what does that leave us with Fortune’s Weave as a potential sequel? Well, Three Hopes already provides us with a potential framework, as Three Hopes is itself a What If story essentially What if the House Lords encountered Shez instead of Byleth?

So what kind of What If story then would Fortune’s Weave be then as a sequel, that doesn’t invalidate Three Houses? What if the House Lords encountered Byleth and Shez at the same time? Perhaps? But I feel like such a game would be better suited to something more along the lines of SMT:V Vengeance than being an entirely new title.

So, what’s something that can happen on all routes, regardless of timeline, that could give way for a sequel like this, without invalidating Byleth, and without needing to focus a ton on Fodlan (to start with at least)?

Simple really.

Byleth and their allies can fail, and the Agarthans can seize control of Fodlan.

I believe Fortune’s Weave is a sequel set in a bad ending timeline, and Dietrich’s wish is to liberate Fodlan from its Agarthan oppressors with the Divine Sovereign's help.

The Background:

For the sake of argument, and since it happens on all routes, let’s say that the diverging point is when Byleth is banished to Zaharas, and that rather than being able to escape it within a reasonable timeframe with relation to time in Fodlan, it takes them approximately 15-25 years in Fodlan’s time to break out. Most likely because they refused to fuse with Sothis, and it took her some time to build up enough power on her own to break both of them out. This means Byleth is absent for the start of the war, and it’s potential ending, with the House Lords likely having no hope of their return.

At some point while Byleth is gone, the Agarthans make their move and seize control of Fodlan, placing it under a brutal dictatorship. The House Lords are captured, and a majority of the other named characters are either in hiding, on the run, laying low, or have been captured themselves. Mercedes being one of the characters that is in hiding / on the run. At some point she either gives birth to Deitrich or Jeritza gets with someone and they have Deitrich or she finds out that she has a long lost relative in Deitrich or that he’s this relative’s son, and Dietrich winds up running with Mercedes, who is either his mother, aunt, cousin, or sister.

Eventually Byleth breaks out of Zaharas with the mostly powered Sothis (I say mostly because she’d probably wipe the floor with the Agarthans again if she had her full power), and comes into contact with Mercedes, Dietrich, and the refugees that they are with, and learns what’s happened in their absence. Byleth of course wants to set things right, but doesn’t have the means to do so, as they’d need a massive army to fight the Agarthan military. Sothis however, senses another of her progeny in a distant land, and comes up with an idea to try and steal a ship to flea Fodlan, find the progeny, and work with this child of hers to put together an army strong enough to take on the Agarthans. As part of the plan they wind up stealing the Heroes Relic The Answerer which is being used by the commander of the port the ship is located at, so Deitrich can use it to their advantage since it’s linked to his and Mercedes Crest of Lamine.

Byleth however does not join Deitrich, Mercedes, and the others on the ship, wanting to stay behind to try and track down the other students & faculty to try and help them, Especially Edelgard, Dimitri, Claude, and Rhea.

This is the point in which we get the Sothis scene from the trailer of her asking the viewer if they’ve forgotten about her, as she’s reaching out to the Divine Sovereign to inform him of what’s happened in Fodlan, and that he is to work with Dietrich, Mercedes and the others to put together army with which he can help her liberate Fodlan. During this voyage the ship runs into a storm and we get the scene of Dietrich weathering said storm while helping his crew mate stay steady that was also in the trailer.

Eventually they arrive in Dagsion and are greeted by the Divine Sovereign, who informs Dietrich of his plan. Obviously any military campaign of this caliber will require the absolute best of the best if they are to succeed against a technologically superior army like the Agarthans, and while they have no shortage of numbers to pull the campaign off, they need excellent leaders to lead the army on the ground. However, the Sovereign has a plan on how to draw in the talent they need, and truly find the best of the best, an epic gladiatorial tournament, with your hearts desire as the prize so long as it’s within the Sovereign's (or Sothis’s once they find her) power to fulfill.

Thus, the Sovereign’s plan is to use The Heroic Games, to find the talent they need, and weed out the weak from the strong to serve in this grand army of liberation.

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Dietrich's Role:

Seeing as Mercedes at this point is likely not much of a fighter anymore (or at least won’t be until mid to late game probably) and that Deitrich has a Hero’s Relic at his command. Dietrich will be the one taking the lead on their operations in Dagsion and act as the Sovereigns enforcer, keeping the peace between competitors and spectators between rounds (based on the scene of Dietrich threatening the wealthy man with The Answerer) and also stopping any Agarthan attempts at causing trouble if they make it out to Dagis, maybe they set up a base and this is where Dietrich fight’s the gun nun? He will also be competing himself to hone his skills further and get a closer look at his fellow competitors. I think that Dietrich's character arc will mostly be resolved in the Fodlan Liberation half of the game, and will focus mainly on him needing to control his crest induced bloodlust so as to not become consumed by it at the worst time, while also opening up to his allies about his past.

Theodora’s Role:

Given that Theodora wishes to accrue power for herself to defend and lead her people, and also prove herself, I think she will be enthusiastic to assist with Fodlan’s liberation, after all, fighting and defeating a highly advanced military has to show how powerful you are, especially if you can bring that technology home with you to help your civilization advance technologically. Perhaps her wish will be to acquire a Crest from the Divine Sovereign? Only for her to realize that she doesn’t need it and that she had the power she needed all along.

Cai and Leda:

I’m putting them both together because I think their main goals will be “accomplished” before the end of the Heroic Games.

Leda wants revenge against someone, which she’s said herself in the trailer, probably a noble who sacked her hometown and kidnapped a family member of hers if that scene of her crying out and reaching for someone is to be believed. This noble will most likely either be participating in the games themselves, or will be spectating, and Leda will get her revenge / right the wrong before we hit the Fodlan Liberation portion, because I highly doubt that Thales or some other Agarthan was involved. Leda’s arc I think will focus on the standard “Revenge doesn’t feel good once you get it” storyline, with her allies needing to pull her back from the brink of succumbing to her desire for revenge, or the emptiness that it leaves you with if you get it. That, and her revenge getting her pulled into something far, far above her paygrade in the Fodlan Liberation campaign.

Cai meanwhile wants to save his dad…. And well, this is Fire Emblem, the guy is probably on death’s door already. He’ll probably die during the games, leading Cai to become aimless, and eventually settle on retaliating back against the world for it’s cruelty in killing his dad, throwing himself into battle to find a purpose. With his allies helping him work through his grief during the Fodlan Liberation campaign and come back around stronger.

MISCELLANEOUS POINTS:

The Fodlan Liberation Campaign:

TBH I have no idea how this would actually go. All I can say is that this would likely be Fortune’s Weaves’ equivalent to the War Arc from Three Houses, and most likely necessitate a new hub location. Maybe the final battle would be at Gerrag Mach itself?

Why a “Bad Ending” Timeline?:

As mentioned earlier, the Developers took care to not invalidate any of Three Houses routes during the development and writing of Three Hopes, and this philosophy has likely carried over to Fortune’s Weave. Plus, the whole point of the Fodlan Liberation campaign will be to correct the Bad Ending. Giving the player the satisfaction of saving their favorites in Three Houses from a horrible fate, without needing to commit to a single Route from Three Houses. Not to mention, this gives us a new angle to explore the characters from and expand on them further with the help of the new characters.

Also, this isn’t the first time Fire Emblem has used a Bad Ending kind of scenario.

Genealogy of the Holy War’s second half is about Seliph and his allies liberating Jugdral after Sigurd and his allies were killed at Belhalla by Arvis and his men. This hypothetical Fodlan Liberation campaign would essentially be a very similar idea, to match with one of Three House’s inspirations being the academy that Sigurd, Quan, and Eldigain attended in Genealogy.

And more recently Engage has a bad ending itself if your defeated on the final map, and choose not to use the Draconic Time Crystal, you get a short, rendered cutscene of Sombron invoking Alear as a Dark Emblem, and revealing that all of Alear's allies are dead (except Veyle who has been brainwashed again), capped off with Sombron laughing manically as Alear realizes the horror of their situation.

Mercedes:

Assuming of course that my prediction is accurate. I think her reveal will be saved for one of the last trailers, similar to how the Timeskip in Three Houses was hidden until the E3 2019 Trailer, and in game she likely won’t appear on a non-Deitrich route until partway through the Heroic Games using her healing magic, perhaps she helps tend to Cai’s father? Or maybe she helps Theodora with healing after an attempt on her life? Or maybe she can help Leda save someone’s life. I could see her being saved for later at the presumed end of the games.

The Japanese Title:

So while we know that the title of the game outside of Japan is Fortune’s Weave, I want to bring special attention the game’s Japanese title, 万紫千紅 (Banshi Senkou), which translates into “flourishing of many colors”, and is specifically made of the characters for 10,000 Purple, 1,000 Scarlet. Shout outs to cordeliafrey78 and their post translating this information BTW

Assuming that the game does indeed focus on a war of liberation against the Agarthans, this title takes on a new meaning. While it can already be used to point at the drastically increased diversity of skintones and social backgrounds of the characters we know about in Fortune’s Weave, in the context of this hypothetical war, it also illustrates the circumstances of the war itself, a likely ragtag team from across multiple countries / territories, marching into Fodlan and teaming up with the locals to form a force of 1000 Scarlets to the monotone, single raced, possibly single species, and drastically entrenched and well supplied Agarthans as the 10,000 Purples. With the title being used in a way similar to how Three Houses’ title of 風花雪月 translates literally into the idiom of “Wind, Flower, Snow, and Moon”, which all correspond to the four main routes of Three Houses on top of tying into the games inspiration in Romance of the Three Kingdoms.

Of course this also brings up the complication that the games have a more gladiatorial name in Japanese as the Great Gladiatorial Games, but I could in turn argue that the games themselves existed before the Divine Sovereign came up with his plan, and that he is simply using them as part of the plan, this time with an added incentive in the form of the wish to draw in better competitors.

Closing Thoughts:

Apologies if this seems somewhat incoherent. I’ve actually been working on this on and off again over the past two months, but real life has been getting in the way. I do admit that this is kind of fanfic territory, but I do think it’s a compelling theory that would answer a ton of questions, and let’s Fortune’s Weave more easily slot into the Three Houses universe without running the risk of introducing a major retcon or invalidating Three Houses / Three Hopes themselves, and helps contextualize some of the scenes we’ve seen in the original trailer.

Of course this is all likely to be proven incorrect in a few hours anyways, but I didn’t want it to go to waste, and I hope that you found my points and ideas to be interesting at least!