u/Reaper_1492

It’s official, we’re back near estimated NAV, so now valuation is not some ethereal hypothetical that can’t be easily understood.

What is also true, is that since the IPO, the “Tech Infrastructure REIT” (aka, the Flagship Fund) has sold ~$270M of VCX stock.

During that same period, VCX hasn’t filed any obvious ATMs or Secondaries to capitalize on the half-year long price inflation, for VCX shareholders.

It’s hard to put a number on how much they could have raised, because ATMs aren’t limited by average daily volume like reg 144 sales are - but conceivably they should have been able to raise some multiple of $270M by doing an earlier ATM, when average price was higher.

So, if you throw out all the “what if’s” and oddball accusations — at its core, is this not textbook conflict of interest and breach of fiduciary duty?

The entire timeline seems to have been carefully orchestrated to extract as much value as possible for the Flagship Fund, at the expense of other shareholders.

It makes sense, why would you risk diluting Flagship’s short term revenue stream when you can use locked up shareholders to maintain artificial supply constraints?

Just rough numbers, but if they could have raised an additional $500m when the avg share price was $100-$200/share, they could have boosted “real” NAV another $15-$25 per share (assuming a base NAV of $18.97 as last reported).

$50/share
• New shares issued: 10.00M
• New NAV/share: $24.61
• Increase: +$5.64 (+30%)

$75/share
• New shares issued: 6.67M
• New NAV/share: $29.20
• Increase: +$10.23 (+54%)

$100/share
• New shares issued: 5.00M
• New NAV/share: $33.75
• Increase: +$14.78 (+78%)

$150/share
• New shares issued: 3.33M
• New NAV/share: $39.16
• Increase: +$20.19 (+106%)

$200/share
• New shares issued: 2.50M
• New NAV/share: $43.06
• Increase: +$24.09 (+127%)

Assumptions:
• Starting net assets: ~$678.9M
• Starting shares outstanding: ~35.8M
• Starting NAV/share: ~$18.97
• ATM executed entirely at the stated average price
• Ignores underwriting/ATM fees

Now, I’m not in Finance, I don’t know the options or regulations at play - this is a completely uninformed opinion in any sense that actually matters.

That said, from a common-sense perspective, they might have legally informed shareholders “enough” (maybe?) to cram all these filings through the SEC.

But that aside, does making obscure references to the possibility of associated entities, etc. really absolve you of your fiduciary duty to shareholders?

First, this thing is a bug machine.

I ran it 24x7 for 3 days, and initially I thought it was just chasing small nits, but each time I checked, the bug it was working on seemed like an obvious miss, so I let it keep going - but obviously wasn’t watching it every minute of the day over those 3 days.

After 72 hours, seeing more minor nits, and my first major goal checkpoint kept getting more and more bug fixes parked in front of it (3 days for one sub goal, eek) - I told it that it needed to actually estimate the probability of each proposed issue actually causing an issue if it was not addressed, and if it was extremely minor, skip it.

Its immediate response was kind of aggravating, but not unexpected - essentially “oh yes, I will stop the RECURSIVE bug review, and only check for relevant things”.

I honestly think if I just let it run, it would have run for another week and still not been happy enough to mark off the first goal objective.

Sol Ultra is much more convincing in that the bugs it is endlessly finding, are actually decent guardrails without context - but it’s also an endless black hole and you just don’t need half of them in production because many of the things it is trying to prevent against are virtually impossible in production.

By the end, it was literally trying to shield against forced manual overrides that didn’t exist, but could, if I re-wrote the code.

With the updated instruction it is moving forward and doing a better job of balancing blocking and tackling against forward progress, but that’s a pretty significant behavioral issue by default - especially if they are trying to cull unnecessary operations.

TL;DR

My experience with Sol Ultra is that it will just endlessly burn tokens chasing nits that will likely never come into play in practice.

I’m not sure how to best contain it; making it aware of its own proclivity to do that seems to be helping, but it’s a pretty terrible default mode for efficiency.

With the filing for VCX II, it seems like the NAV/Secondary is unlikely.

Fundrise is probably pissed they didn’t get their management fee increase, and VCX has served its primary purpose (bailing out the flagship fund, and an attempted bail out of the REIT funds).

This time, they can initiate the fund with the fee structure they want AND still get to use their listing like a credit card all over again.

Something tells me that shareholders won’t sign up to get taken for a ride a second time.

For anyone thinking, “Yeah, but you can still actively manage two funds”:

If you had limited placement opportunities, which fund would you choose to use to deploy capital/invest in higher quality assets - a fund that pays you lower fees, or higher fees?

Over it. Barring some wild surprise, I’m out come September.

My costs for Claude code have doubled in the past few days, and nothing else has materially changed.

I was consistently burning about $100 per day, for months, and I am now burning $200 every 2-3 hours.

Did something change in the config/costs? I am using Opus 4.7., no idea what the reasoning level was before but it is "extra high" now. I have not changed this myself, so would assume it has always been that.

I see all the posts about the degradation - I upgraded to the $200 pro plan a few months ago, and feel this partially confirms my suspicion in that I am not feeling the degradation nearly as badly now, as some of you are reporting, and as I used to.

That said, almost every task I give codex right now quickly spirals into this death loops of never ending fallbacks and nit fixes. It literally can’t find its way out of a paper bag.

I am constantly having to kill it, have it go back and remove all the broken fallbacks, and restart; and then it just starts doing the same thing all over again.

Getting to be almost unusable, even though it’s not as fundamentally broken for me as it has been in previous degradation cycles.