r/FundRise

Hi. Im not a finance guy, im a teacher who had 5k invested that is suddenly now 50 or 70k. I dont plan to sell any of it until closer to retirement in decades, but what nasty surprise should I brace for?

I am used to buying /selling stocks, etfs and mutual funds but found myself holding vcx after playing with Fundrise. I have no experience with this sort of holding or what to do when it has gone up so much right before a holding (Spacex) goes public. Opinions on should I sell or hold?

If you were going to invest $10K into Fundrise today, which fund would you pick?

Context

See here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587226000288/dxyz100_424b3.htm
And here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843974/000157587226000284/dxyz098_424b3.htm

They also hold about 15% of their portfolio in SpaceX so DXYZ could move dramatically the next 4 weeks with the IPO

Based on filing dates, they could have issued at $50-75 (ie at least double nav from March 31, 2026).

——

Waiting on VCX to get this going - we wont be trading at 10x nav for long… hoping we see a 424b3 this coming week so we can get started!

I just activated ComputerShare and am a very confused, uneducated investor. I only had a small amount in VCX but see the amount has ballooned more than 10x since the end of 2025, when I used to see it in the Fundrise app. And it says I can’t sell the shares?

Appreciate any context on this. Thank you.

I'm not complaining - but wtf is going on

I think everyone would benefit from clarity. The community deserves a statement from Fundrise to clarify where things stand. It’s very possible there’s an exception that’s applied here but management owes it to the community to provide this clarity.

Any insights if fundraise planning for VCX II?

Pumping due to shorts getting squeezed around the market.

Good time for puts, even they cost money this will be sub $75 bucks when lock up ends.

We are aware of individuals or investment firms offering access to Anthropic financing rounds, or offering to purchase your Anthropic shares in violation of our transfer restrictions. To be clear, the following firms are not authorized to buy or sell Anthropic shares:

- Open Door Partners
- Unicorns Exchange
- Pachamama
- Lionheart Ventures
- Hiive (new offerings)
- Forge (new offerings)
- Sydecar
- Upmarket

Any sale or transfer of Anthropic stock, or any interest in Anthropic stock, offered by these firms is void and will not be recognized on our books and records.

Tried to start a chat in the Computershare app and they directed me to call them because they ‘can’t access that stock’. I unfortunately don’t have the time to at this very moment, but I’m more than a little concerned by this…

What the calculator does:

The fund's 12/31/25 Schedule of Investments discloses the exact share counts VCX holds in each portfolio company. For example, 357,000 shares of Anthropic, 504,000 shares of Databricks, 308,000 shares of Ramp, 30,000 shares of SpaceX, etc.

For positions held as direct shares, the calculator lets you input a current price-per-share from your preferred source (Hiive, Forge Global, Caplight, Notice all publish secondary prices and they don't always agree). For positions held through SPVs, convertibles, or SAFEs where the underlying share count isn't disclosed, you apply a MOIC multiplier instead.

The output is a marked NAV per VCX share, which you can compare to the current trading price to see the implied premium or discount.

https://preview.redd.it/2kacmb4t5e0h1.png?width=1754&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f6cd98babf35278812824e5f713ff561490679b

Calculator link: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/d2aaa415-5651-479d-852b-11a28df1a7d6

The data sources I used:

• Position share counts: VCX Schedule of Investments, 12/31/25 (EDGAR)
• VCX shares outstanding: 28,346,610 at listing per TipRanks, with an adjustment for post-listing ATM issuance
• Default 12/31/25 marks: implied from the filing values
• Secondary price defaults: I left them at Fundrise's marks so users start from a neutral baseline
• Continuous issuance estimate (~60K shares/day post-listing): backed out from share count growth since listing on EDGAR

What I'm hoping for from this post:

• Tell me where the methodology is wrong. Specifically:
  • Is my ~30.6M shares-outstanding estimate roughly right, or is there a better source?
  • Is there a way to mark the OpenAI position cleanly that I'm not seeing? The convertible rights + partnership interest don't disclose underlying share count.
• Tell me your own marks. The calculator is built to be flexible. If you think Anthropic should be marked at $5,000/share or $800/share, run it and post your numbers.
• Tell me how you think about premium-to-NAV for a closed-end fund holding pre-IPO names. There's no clean comp here. DXYZ is the obvious reference but it's structurally different in some ways.

Disclosures:

I'm not neutral on this. I'm long Anthropic via SPVs and direct co-investments, I'm long Fundrise the operating company via the secondary market, and after running this analysis I went short VCX the ticker as a wrapper-price bet. I built the calculator because I wanted to understand my own positioning, then realized it might be useful to other people running their own analysis.

If you think the math says VCX is fairly priced or undervalued, I'd genuinely like to hear that case. The whole point of sharing the tool is to find out where I'm wrong.

Not investment advice. Do your own work.

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but Anthropic just posted a shocking update on their website about “investment scams”. It specifically prohibits and voids any shares promised by “retail vehicles” and prohibits ownership from SPVs.

I shared the link to the article directly from anthropic above, but go to the VCX offering docs and the footer specifically notes Anthropic is held in this via a SPV…

“SPVs and retail investment funds

We do not permit special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to acquire Anthropic stock and any transfer of shares to an SPV are void under our transfer restrictions. Offers to invest in Anthropic’s past or future financing rounds through an SPV are prohibited.

We are also aware of investment funds that claim to offer indirect access to Anthropic stock. These funds often market themselves by saying something like: "You can't invest in Anthropic directly, but invest with us and we'll get access for you." These funds are most likely relying on mechanisms that attempt to circumvent our transfer restrictions. Any third party claiming to sell Anthropic shares to the general public—whether through direct sales, "forward contracts," tokenized securities, or other mechanisms—is likely either engaged in fraud or offering an investment that may have no value due to our transfer restrictions.

Invest at your own risk: if someone offers you a way to participate, even on an indirect basis, in an investment in Anthropic, assume that it is invalid.”

This is the exact blurb and it seems to be directly referencing DXYZ and VCX…

Has anyone confirmed that we are legally allowed to purchase PUTS on VCX as restricted share holders?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640967/000162828026032673/rc-20260331.htm

VCX still primary driver of revenue for Rise overall. Small drag on VCX NAV with recoupment (.10 per share). VCX no longer subsidized by Rise.

IPO shares now valued at $15.90

RealAI useful life accelerated from 4 years to 1 year. AI assets depreciate fast!

Cash burn has slowed meaningfully to 5.3m per quarter from 8.4m YOY.

Continuous offering of IPO shares brings in 3.8m per quarter, so getting close to break even.

Modest rise in AUM should have Rise at break even soon.

Please correct any incorrect assumptions!