▲ 2 r/StockMarketChat+2 crossposts

PYPL and LYFT holding steady in the current market

Hey guys,

I hold 500 shares at an effective cost basis of 40 because I entered with covered calls struck at 52.5 usd expiry March 2027.

Given that Pypl been holding up pretty good recently in the market I think it’s the next auto zone if you are willing to hold 5 years+. That’s why I entered with a covered calls even if my shares get called away I would net a nice 31.25% return in 9 months. Plus dividends.

The management is buying back the shares aggressively and I literally can’t see the price stay this depressed in the next couple years.

I strongly think if your time horizon is 5+ years then this can give nice 20%+ annual returns. What do yall think?

From an overall portfolio management perspective this stock can certainly act as a safe part of the portfolio. Ofc, not as safe as SGOV or SCHO but there is not much downside left at this price level.

The other such stock I think is LYFT. If yall think Uber is undervalued I’d say LYFT is even more undervalued. They are also buying their shares back pretty aggressively and growing good. For options enthusiasts, one nice think about LYFT is that it has very good IV so entering with a covered calls struck ATM about 6 months out would be optimal. I hold 1000 shares of LYFT with calls struck at 15. My effective cost basis is 12 on LYFT because of the covered calls. Even if it explodes I’m happy my sharing being called away with nice 25% gain in 6 months

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 10 days ago
▲ 15 r/options+1 crossposts

Weird arbitrage in SPY options?

Hey Folks,

I am looking at this trade in my account. It looks like a box spread. I am confused why it's giving a mid credit of 51.88 USD when maximum loss is limited to 5000 USD. So you make 188 USD risk-free?! What am I missing?

It's basically a call bear spread and a bull put spread with both spread same expiry and same strikes. In this case because both spreads are 50 points apart, you never can lose more than 5000 USD no matter where SPY lands on Dec 18, 2026.

Edit: Schwab told me today that they would treat these two credit spreads separately and would hold 10k as collateral. That defies the entire purpose of this box spread. Seems wrong why would they hold 10k when it’s impossible to lose more than 5k on this box spread. ​

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 14 days ago

Duolingo up

Anyone knows what the heck happened with DUOL? It kinda kept rising recently while the other SaaS is seriously screwed up? Maybe their 400 million share buybacks bumped the price up? I’m long DUOL with 3% of my portfolio so I’m happy but wondering should I unload with this 20% quick profit and move on from this SaaS shit

Edit: DUOL has a terrific balance sheet but so do other SaaS so I’m a bit scared it may get hammered in the next SaaSpoclapyse wave

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 18 days ago

Adobe executives leaving

Hey folks,

Disappointed with ADBE’s inability to find the next CEO and their CFO also left now. This company can’t catch a break. Although earnings looked decent (for now) but nothing proving that AI won’t eat their lunch.

Interested to know community thoughts here. I did some option trading (sold a cash secured put) and as a result I might end up owning 100 shares at roughly 234 cost basis now. I have the capital so not a problem but wondering if it’s worth it to own the shares or just buy that short put back and move on.

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 25 days ago
▲ 14 r/LETFs

25% QLD + 25% SSO + 25% VT + 25% SGOV

with quarterly rebalancing. Plan to add roughly 8k per annum as it’s my Roth. Current value is ~160k USD and I’m 33. Have a steady 6-fig job. Thoughts on the portfolio? Y’all think I should leverage it a bit more or reduce?

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 29 days ago

ADBE opinion from a former Adobe employee

Hey folks,

A friend of mine worked for Adobe for 4 years and left them 2 months ago. He texted me the following when I asked about his opinion about investing in ADBE. Thought I would share that here since there is tons of discussion about ADBE. Verbatim text:

“””
I was big bear on ADBE stock 1-2 year ago. But I am turning into a semi bull for it as short term gain. A few catalysts you can look forward too:

  1. maybe ceo change would change the outlook and rejuvenate Adobe a bit.
  2. the promised AI being able to replace creative tools has not realized to a meaningful amount. It is still only usable for funny videos and memes.
  3. lot of video and image startups in this space are struggling to compete with OpenAI and Google because of how difficult it is to get PMF in this field.
  4. prompt based editing is not the flow that professional Creators or enterprises will rely on
  5. diffusion models scaling is difficult and models are 1/100 the size of LLMs to date.

Bear case:

  1. Agentic workflows could demand new tools which Adobe might fail to adapt to
  2. ADBE does not own best models so what would be its pricing power
  3. seat based pricing might turn into usage based pricing which could be bull or bear case whichever way you might want to look into

A few turnarounds like Datadog, Hubspot etc could turn the story in favor of SaaS again and led to multiple expansion. I am not at Adobe anymore but I do know Adobe has a serious leadership problem which could possibly be solved with a new CEO. CFO and DME President at completely incompetent.

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 2 months ago

Futures in Roth account

Hey all, I have a ~$155k Roth IRA with about $20k in short-term Treasuries (SCHO)/cash, and I’m holding 1 MES + 1 MNQ contract (roughly ~$250k total notional exposure). Rest is in VT and VTI.

Would you consider this reasonable leverage for a retirement account, or am I taking too much risk? Mainly wondering how survivable this would be during a major drawdown/crash like 2008 style. I think this can certainly withstand up to a 35% crash. I’m 32 with a steady 6-fig job so not planning to touch this Roth until I’m 60 or so and max it out every year.

Not doing any day trading but just set it forget it kind of. Ofc, log into my account daily and if the margin balance goes less than maintenance margin then I move money from SCHO/cash to futures account and vice versa. This is all on Schwab.

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 2 months ago

Futures in a Roth account

Hey all, I have a ~$155k Roth IRA with about $20k in short-term Treasuries (SCHO)/cash, and I’m holding 1 MES + 1 MNQ contract (roughly ~$250k total notional exposure). Rest is in VT and VTI.

Would you consider this reasonable leverage for a retirement account, or am I taking too much risk? Mainly wondering how survivable this would be during a major drawdown/crash like 2008 style. I think this can certainly withstand up to a 35% crash. I’m 32 with a steady 6-fig job so not planning to touch this Roth until I’m 60 or so and max it out every year.

Not doing any day trading but just set it forget it kind of. Ofc, log into my account daily and if the margin balance goes less than maintenance margin then I move money from SCHO/cash to futures account and vice versa. This is all on Schwab.

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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 — 2 months ago