u/Sufficient-Flan1565

Guys,

I have posted here before about charter communications so posting this to start some discussion on it. I’m long with 200 shares at 130 cost basis.

It’s trading at 110 apiece rn. I think it got repriced because of the rising interest rates so market is worried about their debt. The numbers are looking absolutely ridiculous though at almost 30% if not more fcf yield. Also I think charters debt is structured pretty good with no problem at least until 2035.

What are yall thinking with your CHTR thesis? I don’t mind cutting my losses but I can also keep selling calls on it because the OTM call options have pretty elevated IV so I am confident I can break even on it by selling calls. A march 2027 150-strike which is almost 35% OTM call is selling for 800 bucks.

However I strongly believe it’s a 200 bucks stock. Discuss!

Guys,

Coinbase seems unusually low given the fact that bitcoin is sitting pretty high.

I normally sell options on Coinbase and hedge those with buying options on IBIT because COIN consistently has 65% annualized IV while IBIT only has roughly 43%. So I kinda sell expensive volatility on COIN while hedging that with cheap volatility on IBIT. It’s been working out really good for me YTD.

This time my short puts on COIN getting obliterated while long puts on IBIT not really helping. Discuss or make it what you want from that. Maybe HOOD eating Coinbase’s lunch in crypto trading so Coinbase not trailing bitcoin well enough?

Fellas,

I’ve been looking at Cigna after the recent decline and the valuation seems interesting.

At ~$279/share:
2026 adjusted EPS guidance: ≥$30.45
Forward P/E: ~9.2x
Q2 revenue: $71.7B, +7% YoY
Q2 adjusted operating income: $2.05B, +6% YoY
2025 operating cash flow: ~$9.6B
Remaining share repurchase authorization: ~$6.5B
Shares outstanding: ~264M

I also ran a conservative owner-earnings DCF using ~$7.5B normalized earnings, ~5% initial growth declining toward 2%, and a 10.5% discount rate. I get roughly $390/share.

Obviously PBM regulation/Evernorth is a major risk and probably explains part of the multiple.
But at ~9x forward earnings, it seems like quite a bit of pessimism is already priced in.

What am I missing here?

Fellas,

I’ve been looking at Cigna after the recent decline and the valuation seems interesting.

At ~$279/share:
2026 adjusted EPS guidance: ≥$30.45
Forward P/E: ~9.2x
Q2 revenue: $71.7B, +7% YoY
Q2 adjusted operating income: $2.05B, +6% YoY
2025 operating cash flow: ~$9.6B
Remaining share repurchase authorization: ~$6.5B
Shares outstanding: ~264M

I also ran a conservative owner-earnings DCF using ~$7.5B normalized earnings, ~5% initial growth declining toward 2%, and a 10.5% discount rate. I get roughly $390/share.

Obviously PBM regulation/Evernorth is a major risk and probably explains part of the multiple.
But at ~9x forward earnings, it seems like quite a bit of pessimism is already priced in.

What am I missing here? I haven’t started a position yet but thinking of starting with roughly a 2.5% of my portfolio.

Folks,

What are we thinkin about BBW after today's ~30% drop? Revenue is shrinking, I get that.

However, using roughly $35M normalized annual FCF as a starting point, I ran a pretty basic DCF with ChatGPT with these assumptions: 3% FCF growth for years 1–5, 2% growth years 6–10, 2% terminal growth, 10.5% discount rate, and ~$14M cash/essentially no debt.

Getting fair value around $37/share. Bear case assuming weaker ~$32M FCF, minimal growth and a 12% discount rate gives me roughly $25/share.

Not saying it’s a screaming buy, but the valuation looks much more interesting after today’s selloff.

I have seen that this sub’s picks lately have been doing pretty decent. Won’t say that they are rebounding hard but doing better than the broad market.

UNH, Adobe, PayPal, NVO, NOW

Good work, yall! Normally I just inverse this sub with like 2 percent of my portfolio and I wouldn’t lie that I have made pretty good money doing that but looks like that strategy won’t work going forward 🚀

Guys any idea why chtr is dumping so bad after earnings? The earnings look in line and they did some share buybacks too. I hold a few hundred shares at 130 cost basis so kinda pissed

The revenue is declining but nothing crazy

Hey guys,

I hold 500 shares at an effective cost basis of 40 because I entered with covered calls struck at 52.5 usd expiry March 2027.

Given that Pypl been holding up pretty good recently in the market I think it’s the next auto zone if you are willing to hold 5 years+. That’s why I entered with a covered calls even if my shares get called away I would net a nice 31.25% return in 9 months. Plus dividends.

The management is buying back the shares aggressively and I literally can’t see the price stay this depressed in the next couple years.

I strongly think if your time horizon is 5+ years then this can give nice 20%+ annual returns. What do yall think?

From an overall portfolio management perspective this stock can certainly act as a safe part of the portfolio. Ofc, not as safe as SGOV or SCHO but there is not much downside left at this price level.

The other such stock I think is LYFT. If yall think Uber is undervalued I’d say LYFT is even more undervalued. They are also buying their shares back pretty aggressively and growing good. For options enthusiasts, one nice think about LYFT is that it has very good IV so entering with a covered calls struck ATM about 6 months out would be optimal. I hold 1000 shares of LYFT with calls struck at 15. My effective cost basis is 12 on LYFT because of the covered calls. Even if it explodes I’m happy my sharing being called away with nice 25% gain in 6 months

Hey Folks,

I am looking at this trade in my account. It looks like a box spread. I am confused why it's giving a mid credit of 51.88 USD when maximum loss is limited to 5000 USD. So you make 188 USD risk-free?! What am I missing?

It's basically a call bear spread and a bull put spread with both spread same expiry and same strikes. In this case because both spreads are 50 points apart, you never can lose more than 5000 USD no matter where SPY lands on Dec 18, 2026.



Edit: Schwab told me today that they would treat these two credit spreads separately and would hold 10k as collateral. That defies the entire purpose of this box spread. Seems wrong why would they hold 10k when it’s impossible to lose more than 5k on this box spread. ​

Anyone knows what the heck happened with DUOL? It kinda kept rising recently while the other SaaS is seriously screwed up? Maybe their 400 million share buybacks bumped the price up? I’m long DUOL with 3% of my portfolio so I’m happy but wondering should I unload with this 20% quick profit and move on from this SaaS shit

Edit: DUOL has a terrific balance sheet but so do other SaaS so I’m a bit scared it may get hammered in the next SaaSpoclapyse wave

Hey folks,

Disappointed with ADBE’s inability to find the next CEO and their CFO also left now. This company can’t catch a break. Although earnings looked decent (for now) but nothing proving that AI won’t eat their lunch.

Interested to know community thoughts here. I did some option trading (sold a cash secured put) and as a result I might end up owning 100 shares at roughly 234 cost basis now. I have the capital so not a problem but wondering if it’s worth it to own the shares or just buy that short put back and move on.

with quarterly rebalancing. Plan to add roughly 8k per annum as it’s my Roth. Current value is ~160k USD and I’m 33. Have a steady 6-fig job. Thoughts on the portfolio? Y’all think I should leverage it a bit more or reduce?

Hey folks,

A friend of mine worked for Adobe for 4 years and left them 2 months ago. He texted me the following when I asked about his opinion about investing in ADBE. Thought I would share that here since there is tons of discussion about ADBE. Verbatim text:

“””
I was big bear on ADBE stock 1-2 year ago. But I am turning into a semi bull for it as short term gain. A few catalysts you can look forward too:

1. maybe ceo change would change the outlook and rejuvenate Adobe a bit.
2. the promised AI being able to replace creative tools has not realized to a meaningful amount. It is still only usable for funny videos and memes.
3. lot of video and image startups in this space are struggling to compete with OpenAI and Google because of how difficult it is to get PMF in this field.
4. prompt based editing is not the flow that professional Creators or enterprises will rely on
5. diffusion models scaling is difficult and models are 1/100 the size of LLMs to date.

Bear case:

1. Agentic workflows could demand new tools which Adobe might fail to adapt to
2. ADBE does not own best models so what would be its pricing power
3. seat based pricing might turn into usage based pricing which could be bull or bear case whichever way you might want to look into

A few turnarounds like Datadog, Hubspot etc could turn the story in favor of SaaS again and led to multiple expansion. I am not at Adobe anymore but I do know Adobe has a serious leadership problem which could possibly be solved with a new CEO. CFO and DME President at completely incompetent.

Hey all, I have a ~$155k Roth IRA with about $20k in short-term Treasuries (SCHO)/cash, and I’m holding 1 MES + 1 MNQ contract (roughly ~$250k total notional exposure). Rest is in VT and VTI.

Would you consider this reasonable leverage for a retirement account, or am I taking too much risk? Mainly wondering how survivable this would be during a major drawdown/crash like 2008 style. I think this can certainly withstand up to a 35% crash. I’m 32 with a steady 6-fig job so not planning to touch this Roth until I’m 60 or so and max it out every year.

Not doing any day trading but just set it forget it kind of. Ofc, log into my account daily and if the margin balance goes less than maintenance margin then I move money from SCHO/cash to futures account and vice versa. This is all on Schwab.

Hey all, I have a ~$155k Roth IRA with about $20k in short-term Treasuries (SCHO)/cash, and I’m holding 1 MES + 1 MNQ contract (roughly ~$250k total notional exposure). Rest is in VT and VTI.

Would you consider this reasonable leverage for a retirement account, or am I taking too much risk? Mainly wondering how survivable this would be during a major drawdown/crash like 2008 style. I think this can certainly withstand up to a 35% crash. I’m 32 with a steady 6-fig job so not planning to touch this Roth until I’m 60 or so and max it out every year.

Not doing any day trading but just set it forget it kind of. Ofc, log into my account daily and if the margin balance goes less than maintenance margin then I move money from SCHO/cash to futures account and vice versa. This is all on Schwab.

Looks like money starting to rotate into SaaS now?! ADBE, FIG, NOW, CRM, and INTU, etc all up!! What do y’all say, time to load calls on IGV? 📈

Any idea why Doximity (DOCS) is getting hammered post earnings today? Down 20% almost. They met all the guidance.