Why I expect MSTR at $100-ish in 8-12 weeks
My flair will indicate that I am biased to be "bearish" on MSTR. Personally, I think I do my analysis without any pre-existing bias, just looking at the facts.
Here are the "facts" that have led me to my position (by "position", I mean opinion - I have gone both long and short on MSTR in the past with my "for fun" money, I have not owned either position since 2025):
- BTC yield is out of options
In 2024 to early 2025, MSTR was trading at large multiples of mNAV. That meant that every new share issued gained fiat that MSTR could use to purchase bitcoin for previous shareholders. i.e. if a new share was bought at 2x mNAV, and all of that money went to buy bitcoin, 50% of the fiat price of the share would go to the new shareholder, and the rest of the 50% would technically go to buy bitcoin to increase the BPS of previous shareholders. The idea that that would keep happening, so long as mNAV was above 1 by a significant amount, was incentive for new shareholders to buy and hold so that new investors would buy them more bitcoin. However, once mNAV dropped near 1, that perpetual motion machine broke. It's NOT impossible that it gets going again, but the thought that it could be perpetual forever has taken a hit, in my opinion.
In early 2026, there was a grand resurgence, at least partially responsible for bitcoin's $80k+ rebound, fueled by STRC issuance. That provided a new path, irrespective of the mNAV flywheel, to produce BTC yield. Many people thought that it was the reality of the 11-12% dividend catching up to them that stopped that momentum. However there's another important (albeit related) factor at play: the momentum of STRC bitcoin yield is limited by its inability to produce quick returns when its price is at par. And the ONLY way for MSTR to turn it into bitcoin yield is WHEN the price is at par. Thus it can only ever be a slow burn, blunting the bitcoin yield with divident obligations, and any substantial bitcoin momentum gained by it will have to be paid for later (as we've seen in July/August with bitcoin sales and dilution, with minimal btc purchases despite the dilution).
- Saylor has inidcated willingness to throw MSTR shareholders under the bus to keep the company, and its preferreds, afloat.
In the past few months Saylor has raised BILLIONS of dollars - almost completely offsetting the raise of capital through STRC that had MSTR investors so excited back in April. He has done it by selling some BTC, but mostly by selling new MSTR shares without using the proceeds to buy bitcoin. Both those mechanisms hurt MSTR shareholders, to whom he's really never demonstrated benevolence. In my view, he seems to view them as means to an end, to keep his company afloat. He is not operating to try and maximize MSTR value, and the stock price reflects that. If you go back to this sub's late 2024-early 2025 post history, you'd be called bearish for suggesting a sub-1000 price target for 2026. But the mood now has shifted to being fairly complacent with a price hovering around $100. Saylor has been banking on shareholders using sunk cost fallacy and other coping mechanisms to continue buying at these prices.
I absolutely do not see MSTR going to 0 any time within the next 5-8 years. But I also don't see any sustained price action above $130 or so at best. Based on all the factors explained above, I see this as a situation analogous to GameStop, where an initial, almost unprecedented rise in price lured people in with the promise of financial freedom, but now there will be a long tail of a slow burn.
Again, I have no open position in MSTR or the preferreds, I don't plan to either than maybe a day of fun in either direction (where I'll probably lose money by guessing wrong anyway), I just find unique finance stories such as this interesting to follow and engage with.
Happy to hear opposing thoughts.