u/TennisDry5414

Many took entry at 26K but it took the reverse journey. As a, retail investor, what will be your watchout level?

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Rental crashed in Bengaluru from 2020-2023. But then it is consistently rising due to return to office.

Most of us who can afford rents are techies. Yes tech is going through 3 years of slowdown and counting, leaking about 50000 techies every year right now which may accelerate further. Out of 1.5 Lakh layoff, 1 Lakh still get the job back, but 50K can't.

The second wave of layoff will be people who are already full 2-3 crore of saving, they will choose to not work for tech again. They will be 20-30K people. But most own flat.

Today Bengaluru has surplus 1 Lakh flats. 40K are from investors. 60K for first time buyer. So an oversupply of 3 Lakh flat will come to market in next 3 years.

Return to office accelerated but that too leaking of resource. There is demand and supply mismatch. With addition 2 Lakh flats in coming year and complete of purple and blue may put huge pressure on rental at tech corridor. Which is extremely prices like 70-80K, they may cool down 30% to 50-60K.

Yes, your observation is correct - In premium society with right rental - first time ever flats are available. But that not necessary signal the price correction.

So overall techies population is falling marginally. Which don't impact rental. But oversupply of two lakh flats will. So be ready to upgrade rental flat to 3BHK by 2028. Because 80% of new supply is 3BHK flats.

My friend purchased a 3BHK near 80 Lakh and his job gone. I asked him how will he pay EMI. He said I have saving of a crore, that's how I purchased. Yes because he was stress free Sudarshan Kriya practitioner, so he got much better job in a month.

There are numerous people asking 30 Lakh salary, 10 Lakh saving trying to buy flat. Purely based on FOMO. Flat already priced 1.5 crore, it will 2 crore tomorrow. I remembered same FOMO in stock market and crores entered in 2023. Today most of them are in loss.

If you are in AI vulnerable sector priority should be Emergency corpus, retirement corpus, home and then luxury car. There is no hurry actually. You may decide to retire in hometown, who knows!

Don't think people are purchasing random. Most of home, flat owner has much more net worth than flat - then only they are purchasing, they are not taking any risk.

So take your time first build your wealth, make 10 Lakh emergency, 1 crore basic retirement corpus atleast. Then earn 80 Lakh and then purchase 1.7 crore.

There is NO RIGHT TIMING. Right timing was in 2020-2022 not today.

If you are purchasing and you don't know you are paying premium or not. A very simple hack - List your flat as seller, with 10% discount on price for a month with no brokers. How many genuine buyer call you are getting. If you are getting they ask for 30% discount then you are paying 20% premium.

Remembered never purchase a flat at a price, you can't sell in emergency! Just because Alto is sold at Mercedes price don't mean you are obliged to take it.

Today unsold inventory is many years high - whopping 4.8 Lakh flats. So its very important to check are you not putting extra 30-50 Lakhs on table?

Rental yield in India is 2-4%. Previously it was 2%. In many developing nations its 5-8%.

The rent grown in India as 3-6% CAGR in last 2 decades (home loan duration)

So honestly those who are living on rent has amazing opportunity to make retirement corpus. Again renting comes with its own headache, it will take a while to get good landlord. You need to be very lucky. But its worthy. But with movers and packers its, easy to shift.

If you assume home loan EMI and invest it.

Rent will be free from 6 year (you can pay rent from retirement corpus interest fully) and

in whole duration of 18 years your corpus will grow to 5 crore.

In 2038 your flat will be free (assuming flat rate also grow at 5% annum). If you continued for 3-4 years it will be additional 2.5 crore for retirement.

But biggest problem is, people on rent stop saving equivalent to home loan EMI. They instead upgrade to quality of life. I used modest 8% gain for calculation.

So those who took home loan earned 2.5 crore flat (initial 1 5 crore flat price) but those who assumed EMI and had financial discipline, made 5 crore.

"So first earn then own model make magic."

There is sudden spurt due to NRI purchase of 500% that will end in couple of years. Don't compete with NRI who earn 2-3 crore per annum. If you have corpus 2028-29 is best year to buy.

For NRIs best to rent property to good tenants and give clear mandate that they need to vacate once you return. A well maintained property is much better than locked one. Also all expenses will be self care. Do expensive interior once you move in.

Tech started 30 years back as a significant industry in India, but it got saturated in 2021. There are veey few new startup. Nothing after Microservices architecture. So there would be time when everything will be automated and it happened.

So layoff started in 2022, 2023 then AI came and layoff is renamed as AI induced layoff. Actually it was nothing to do with AI. AI can't replace Amazon employees. But because of AI some work started coming to tech. AI being very complex implementation, many don't know how to get higher success AO solutions, so I started teaching Ms equivalent AI absolutely free, but only to Indian. As It would be commodity skill like cloud.

Now people think that AI is culprit because for developers AI write beautiful code, for Chief Architect like me, AI write trash code which is only good for POC.

AI slowdown giving a breathing space to services to remodel. However war made investment in future technology negligible. There is job security pressure to your bosses so toxicity may be high. Pranayam, Meditation, Sudarshan kriya help to deal with it instantly and also improve productivity by 30%.

However, for India - layoffs are limited. So you can still plan emergency funds retirement corpus and then long term borrowing like car, home.

We can focus on side hussle, moving to chip manufacturing, data centers. Going onsite. Don't rely on Tech for another decade come what may.

Yes, hiring slowdown but there are still jobs. You need to customize apply to 500 jobs to get one. Thing are not that bad as everybody shouting.

Any queries I am here to help.

You know realestate is hit by slowdown and it will last from 2026-2030. Forget about increased rent. Its possible that you can slice 30% in your current rent.

A rental flat goes through many cycles.

1. The neighbours know about it first.

They know when a tenant is leaving. If the flat is good and the rent is fair, the information spreads through the local network, and the flat is usually absorbed quickly.

2. The landlord asks for a high rent.

Let’s say the landlord wants a higher rent than the prevailing rate. This will usually come to the society’s notice and may be posted on the society platform. That makes other residents aware of the opportunity, and it is still very likely to be absorbed.

3. If there are no takers, the owner moves to real-estate websites.

The flat is posted on property portals such as NoBroker, MagicBricks, 99acres, etc. If it still remains vacant, it moves to the next stage.

4. The owner brings in brokers and agents.

They may also take paid plans on property portals to increase visibility and eventually close the deal. It is not necessarily a mistake by the agents. They make money only when they can get the property rented, often at a premium. Of course, there are exceptions.

Most rental flats in Bengaluru are taken within a week of the existing tenant deciding to move out.

So, if someone finds a flat that is readily available, there is a good chance that they are paying a significant premium for that availability.

For example, a 3BHK may be offered at ₹50K+ per month, while other flats in the same society may be renting for around ₹35K.

Therefore, it may be okay to pay ₹50K initially if you need the flat immediately. But once you move in, keep looking for an internal transfer to a lower-rent flat or a flat with better dimensions/features at a more reasonable rent.

I work in tech, and my friends and colleagues are constrained by money. They had no family support, so they are pretty much on their own.

I will give four examples that can help you buy at the right price.

2BHK flat in Kharadi for ₹49.5 lakh around 2015. There was a new road coming up touching Gera Skyvillas. The quoted rate for the flat was ₹75 lakh. He specifically told them, “I am not in a hurry.” He forgot about it, and they called after four months and said, “We are okay with ₹55 lakh.” He stuck to ₹49.5 lakh and finally got the flat.

3BHK near Bellandur for ₹70 lakh in 2019. He was six years into his career, had just got married, and switched jobs to become eligible for a home loan. It was a builder resale. He went to the builder, who was quoting ₹1.1 crore. He negotiated, but they wouldn't go below ₹90 lakh. He dropped the plan. Then he found out about a relative connection, and finally, the price came closer to ₹70 lakh.

3BHK for ₹82 lakh near Marathahalli. There were several developments near Marathahalli consisting of G+3/G+4 individual buildings. I don't know much about his story, but he managed to get it and shared that he had been looking for 2–3 years.

2BHK in Whitefield for ₹55 lakh. It was a lovely society. He had been hunting for four years, from 2019 to 2022, and finally blocked it at the end of 2022. At that time, there was no Whitefield Metro, so prices were softer.

After 2023, only one person purchased a flat, that too for more than ₹1 crore, as he had free money.

Today, there are many sources—RERA websites, total land-cost information, and actual transaction rates—that can give you tremendous insight into the real dealing price. Even if you assume 25% black money, at least 75% of the transaction value is still traceable for Bengaluru, Pune and Hyderabad.

If you don't want to spend huge amounts, you need to scout for years. But there are options for everyone.