u/Wikileaks_2412

There was a bloodbath today in market but these 50 names swam against the tide.

Rain Industries led the day at +13.90%. Full breakdown by sector

#1 · Rain Industries +13.90%

Big Movers (>8%)

1. CE Info Systems +12.60%
2. Advanced Enzyme +9.28%
3. Affle +8.71%
4. KIMS +8.40%
5. Vodafone Idea +8.36%
   Tata Consumer +8.06%

Healthcare & Pharma

7. KIMS +8.40%
8. Syngene Intl +5.33%
9. Shilpa Medicare +4.38%
10. Abbott India +4.10%
11. Narayana Hrudayalaya +3.63%
12. Global Health +3.22%

Capex & Industrials

13. Atlanta Electricals +5.00%
14. Lloyds Engr Works +5.23%
15. JBM Auto +4.89%
16. Endurance Tech +3.95%
17. Greaves Cotton +3.34%
18. Emmvee PV +3.27%
19. Welspun Corp +2.89%
20. Sona BLW Precision +2.46%

Chemicals & Specialty

21. Rain Industries +13.90%
22. Advanced Enzyme +9.28%
23. UPL +3.56%
24. Sharda Cropchem +3.12%
25. Laurus Labs +3.13%
26. Acutaas Chemicals +2.78%
27. Biocon +2.64%
28. Archean Chem +2.55%

Tech & Telecom

29. CE Info Systems +12.60%
30. Affle +8.71%
31. Black Box +5.30%
32. HFCL +5.18%
33. Sterlite Tech +4.99%
34. Vijaya Diagnostic Centre +4.98%
35. RateGain +3.66%
36. Indegene +2.45%

BFSI

37. Niva Bupa +3.72%
38. Jeena Sikho Life +3.40%
39. Fedbank Financial +3.37%
40. Bank of India +2.93%
41. MCX +2.91%
42. Five Star Business +1.60%
43. UTI AMC +1.21%

Consumer & Others

44. Tata Consumer +8.06%
45. Birla Corporation +6.80%
46. Cera Sanitaryware +6.40%
47. Ather Energy +5.95%
48. Heritage Foods +4.33%
49. Vardhman Textiles +4.30%
50. Marico +1.35%

Note : This is not an investment advise. Just sharing info

Source : CompoundingAI

I have gone through the Q4 FY25 and Q3 FY26 concall transcripts and the Q4 FY26 numbers. Management's most generous revised timeline is Q3 FY27 (June quarter of next calendar year, as Bothra said on the Q3 FY26 call). Let's just check if even that is realistic.

Where Instamart ended Q4 FY26 - Quarterly loss: ₹736 Cr. Sequential improvement from Q3 FY26 to Q4 FY26: ~₹55 Cr.

Q3 FY27 is two quarters away. At ₹55 Cr improvement per quarter, Instamart gets to roughly ₹626 Cr of losses by Q3 FY27. That's not even close to breakeven.

To hit Q3 FY27 breakeven, the sequential improvement needs to more than 6x from here. Every single quarter between now and then.

There could be step-change improvements from dark store maturation, higher order density, reduced discounting. Management clearly believes that. But it needs to be said clearly: the current run-rate of improvement does not get you there. Something has to change materially in the next two quarters, not gradually.

On the Q3 FY26 call Bothra's exact words were: "we are seeking flexibility over two more quarters, it could happen in December, it could happen in the June quarter of the next calendar year."

Even the flexible version of the guidance requires a significant acceleration from current trajectory. The numbers as they stand don't support the optimistic end of that range, let alone the original Q1 FY27 target.

Source : CompoundingAI

Dabur's PAT up 7.2%, guidance which is technically true but there's something more.

Their "Other Income" for FY26 had ₹186 cr of non-recurring gains, basically mark-to-market and sale gains on their massive cash pile. Strip that out post-tax and normalised PAT grew 4.6%.

Management had guided that PAT growth would beat EBITDA growth. EBITDA grew 5.9%. Normalised PAT grew 4.6%. So on the metric they themselves set, they missed, they just don't highlight it because the reported number looks fine.

Not saying it's fraud or anything but if you're tracking operating leverage, you want the 4.6% number, not the 7.2%.

That said, the actual business is decent

Consumer Care (80% of revenue) genuinely had a good quarter. Revenue +8.4%, EBIT margins up 132 bps to 19.9%. Hair oils market share apparently hit all-time highs in Q3. Rural demand holding up. The standalone India business grew PAT 18% YoY in Q4 which is solid.

Raw material costs also helped, materials as % of revenue went from 47.4% to 45.2% YoY.

Juices and beverages had a rough year. Revenue down 4.1% for the full year, EBIT down 10.5%. Margins compressed. It's only ~15% of revenue but it's been a consistent drag and I haven't heard a convincing turnaround story yet.

Cash flow is good with CFO ₹2,579 cr, up 30% YoY. FCF ₹2,158 cr. CFO/PAT at 1.38x. Net cash ₹3,621 cr. They paid ₹1,419 cr in dividends and barely dented the balance sheet. Whatever you think of the P&L quality, the cash generation is real.

TL;DR

Solid company, clean balance sheet, core business working. Just don't let the 7.2% PAT headline do more work than it should. The underlying number is 4.6% and that's actually below their own EBITDA growth which is the opposite of what they promised.

Source : CompoundingAI

Been posting here for a few weeks as text posts and thought why not try a video. It's rough, I know. Anyway here's what I cover-

The 103% PAT number everyone is running with is mostly noise. Like ₹1,600 crore of that is just an accounting adjustment from the KTM deal, not actual business performance. Once you strip that out real growth is around 22%. Still good, just not "profits doubled" good.

The actual business is doing well though. 32% revenue growth, zero debt, exports finally hitting the 2 lakh a month target they'd been promising. Domestic volumes up 24% which matters because there were genuine concerns about market share erosion not too long ago.

The part I keep thinking about is their lending arm BACL. Two years old. Loan book doubled in one year. Profits went 11x. They're basically becoming a financier for their own customers and the numbers are insane for something this new. Might do a separate post on this.

Two things worth watching - auditors gave a qualified opinion on consolidated numbers because KTM reports semi-annually so there's literally no way to verify the quarterly split. Also KTM brings ₹22,000 crore of debt onto the group balance sheet. Standalone Bajaj is still debt free but consolidated is a different story now.

Anyway first video ever, so Yeah!

1. BHAGYANGR: Delivered a major beat with 46.3% revenue growth (vs 35-40% guidance), a 258% PAT surge, and strongly positive CFO of ₹59 Cr ahead of the June 9th copper demerger.

2. NAVINFLUOR: Exceptional performance with 992 bps margin expansion (beating 28-30% guidance) and significant deleveraging as Debt/Equity improved to 0.31x.

3. ETERNAL: Revenue nearly tripled (+196.4%) driven by Quick Commerce turning profitable (₹265 Cr profit vs ₹82 Cr loss) and growing 625.7% YoY.

4. TIPSMUSIC: Exceptional Q4 with 92.9% PAT growth, beating 20% guidance by 10 points while content acquisition costs were kept to 10.2% vs the 18% guided limit.

5. ACUTAAS: Major guidance beat with 33% revenue growth and 35.87% EBITDA margin (vs 28-30% range), supported by a 155% surge in CWIP for capacity expansion.

6. CGCL: PAT of ₹9,491.52 Mn exceeded guidance by 11.7%, while ROE hit 16.49%, achieving the FY28 target two years ahead of schedule.

7. SMARTWORKS: Reported first full year of profitability with 440 bps margin expansion and crossed the 10 million sq ft operational portfolio milestone.

8. PHOENIXLTD: Major outperformance with EBITDA margins at 60.8% (beating 56-57% guidance) and the residential segment surging 122.3% YoY.

9. EQUITASBNK: PAT grew 405% YoY as provisions declined 52%, with the bank now meeting all universal bank license criteria (GNPA 2.60%, NNPA 0.72%).

10. STLTECH: Strategic pivot confirmed as Enterprise/Data Center revenue mix reached 36% (beating 30% target) and the company turned PAT positive at ₹59 Cr.

11. TMB: Beat guidance across advances (20.78% vs 16%) and business growth (17.57% vs 14%) while driving GNPA to a multi-year low of 0.73%.

12. AURUM: Achieved ₹505.4 Cr annualized ARR target and effectively became debt-free (91% debt reduction) with a 1740 bps EBITDA margin expansion.

13. VEDL: FY26 EBITDA beat management guidance by 12%, while Aluminum margins expanded 1600 bps and the Power segment saw a 365% EBITDA surge.

14. CHENNPETRO: Transformational FY26 with PAT growing 1349% as GRM more than doubled to $9.28/bbl and throughput reached 111.5% capacity utilization.

15. CHOICEIN: PAT growth of 39.1% exceeded 25-30% guidance while EBITDA margins beat the guided range by 620 bps, led by the Broking segment's 110% growth.

16. ATUL: Strong turnaround in Life Science Chemicals (margins expanded 921 bps) and robust free cash flow of ₹847.90 Cr with a virtually debt-free balance sheet.

17. INFOBEAN: Major revenue beat (30.1% growth vs mid-teen guidance) with PAT more than doubling and a strong 1.22x cash conversion ratio.

18. CEATLTD: Revenue and PAT (+47.7%) beat double-digit guidance while maintaining conservative leverage (0.60x D/E) and increasing the dividend by 350%.

19. FEDFINA: Beaten guidance on AUM growth (22.9% vs 12-15%) and credit costs (0.89%), while PAT grew 52.6% YoY.

20. SEJALLTD: Confirmed turnaround with Glasstech reaching EBITDA break-even and balance sheet deleveraging from 4.16x to 0.99x D/E via a ₹94 Cr equity raise.

Source : CompoundingAI

Note : This is not an investment advise.

The multiplier table GitHub quietly updated last week is the first visible crack in a subsidy model that was never sustainable.

Quick context for anyone unfamiliar: Copilot plans give you a monthly pool of "premium requests." Each model has a multiplier that determines how fast you drain it. Until recently, Opus 4.6 had a 3x multiplier. It's now 27x. Sonnet 4.6 went from 1x to 9x.

But the multiplier table is just the symptom. The actual disease is that the AI companies have been eating the difference between what compute costs and what you pay.

Anthropic is genuinely compute-constrained right now. Claude Code, agentic workflows, long-context sessions, these eat 10-100x more tokens per user than a simple chat completion. The infrastructure to serve that demand takes 18-24 months to build. Meanwhile, week-over-week compute costs for GitHub Copilot nearly doubled since January. Microsoft and Anthropic have been absorbing that gap. They're done absorbing it.

The 27x multiplier is closer to honest pricing.

Millions of employees have Copilot provisioned as a corporate benefit by IT departments that have zero visibility into model-level consumption. No quota dashboard or model governance. Those employees have been running Opus on everything, code review, boilerplate, one-line completions because why wouldn't you use the best model?

On June 1, GitHub moves to full usage-based billing, the multiplier hike is just the warning shot, what comes next is actual dollar charges hitting corporate cards, traced back to individual usage patterns that nobody thought to govern.

Some engineering manager is going to have a very bad Tuesday in early June explaining to finance why the AI budget is 15x over forecast.

Every major provider is running the same playbook right now. OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor - the flat-rate era is being unwound in real time. The pricing structures being put in place now are designed to make heavy agentic usage reflect its true cost. If your team's workflow depends on treating frontier model access as essentially unlimited, that assumption has an expiration date and it's soon.

The free lunch is over. Adjust your defaults before June 1!

I dug into the results of Ultratech Cement for Q4 FY26: operating PBIDT per tonne came in at ₹1,253 in Q4. That's up 11% YoY. And up from ₹1,051 just last quarter.

For context, this is the number that tells you whether the cement business itself is getting better, independent of all the M&A noise, tax rate changes, exceptional items, India Cements integration accounting etc.

The reason it's moving is power and fuel. UltraTech's power & fuel costs grew only 3.7% YoY this quarter despite volumes growing double digits. Green power mix hit 43% of total consumption, up from 34% a year ago. Captive solar and wind doesn't fluctuate with coal prices. As that mix keeps rising toward their 60% target, the cost base gets structurally more stable.

The MD had said on the Q3 call - "EBITDA per tonne will increase over the next 15 months, definitely, without a doubt.", he knew what he was talking about.

Anyway. FCF of ₹5,638 Cr this year. Net debt/EBITDA at 0.94x and falling. Heavy capex cycle winding down and the special dividend is management basically telling you they can see what's coming.

The one thing I'm watching: South India realization pressure is real and visible in India Cements' own results. If that bleeds into the blended PBIDT/tonne number in FY27, that's the risk.

Not SEBI registered. Not advice. Do your own research.

Source : CompoundingAI