Why Stamina Went Obscure for Breeding
As lot of you may know, Northern Dancer had a rare C allele gene that supported speed and muscle growth rather than the usual stamina gene and notably unlike previous carriers, he passed this down often which made him a obscenely successful sire with very high win rates. So I had a theory for a while that Northern Dancer's speed inheritance changed the whole Meta of horse breeding. I thought he must be the cause of why horses seemed to win in a wider variety of distance back then but they don't seem to be able to do the same now.
To test this theory I decided to look at 50 years before dancer and compare to after dancer in winner distance variety they performed in. I chose Derby, Ascot Gold Cup and St Leger. Derby because the best goes there and its a nice middle distance that still requires stayer stamina to win and the other two because they are important stayer races.
Sadly information just isn't that readily available. For example all previous Derby winners do have a wiki page but not necessarily good information outside of derby run itself and even if there is information, there might have been distance adjustments since the horse ran this race to make it shorter (or longer I guess but rarer lol). And in Ascot Gold case most of the old winners didn't have wiki page or any information about them online for that matter. It is quite difficult to reference all this already scarce information and be 100% sure I got everything right, I'm sure there are horses I've missed to add here and horses I shouldn't have added here. I tried my best to get things right though.
To write the conclusion above, it was more nuanced than just Dancer.
I decided to not use 2 year old season results, all horses run shorter distances during this period so it wouldn't make much sense for this.
1919 to 1969 was chosen because in 1969 Northern dancer first crop hit 3 year old. To be clear I'm not counting only G1 wins (they didn't have graded system back then too), minor prep wins and big race wins were all counted as long as it's after they have reached 3 years old. 3 year old maiden races were not counted.
1919 - 1969
Derby
Captain Cuttle - 1922 winner, sprint to middle
Coronach - 1926 winner, sprint to long
Trigo - 1929 winner, sprint to long
Cameronian - 1931 winner, sprint to long
Windsor Lad - 1934 winner, mile to long
Bahram - 1935 triple Crown winner, mile to long
Mid-day Sun - 1937 winner, sprint and middle (can't find if won a mile but I think counts)
Owen Tudor - 1941 war time winner, mile to long
Ocean swell - 1944 war time winner, mile to long
St Paddy - 1960 winner, mile to long
Relko - 1963 winner, mile to long
Ascot Gold Cup
Golden Myth - 1923 winner, sprint to long
Quashed - 1936 winner, mile to long
Precipitation - 1937 winner, mile to long
Owen Tudor again - 1942 war time winner
Ocean Swell again - 1946 winner
Alycidon - 1949 winner, mile to long
Zarathusra - 1957 winner, mile to long
St Leger
Royal Lancer - 1922 winner - mile to long
Tranquil - 1923 winner - mile to long
Coronach again - 1925 winner
Book law - 1926 winner, mile to long
Fairway - 1927 winner, sprint to long
Trigo - 1928 winner, mile to long
Windsor Lad again - 1934 winner
Bahram again - 1935 3 crown winner
Scottish union - 1939 winner, sprint to long
Sun Chariot - 1942 war time fillies 3 crown, mile to long (I want to interject to say, one of the best fillies ever)
Herringbone - 1943 war time winner, mile to long
Tahran - 1944 war time winner, mile long
Black Tarquin - 1948 winner, sprint to long
Ridge wood - 1949 winner, mile to long
Meld - 1955 fillies 3 crown winner, mile to long
St Paddy again - 1960 winner
Aurelius - 1961 winner, mile to long
Ragusa - 1963 winner, mile long
1969 to 2019
Derby
Nijinsky - 1970 3 crown winner, sprint to long
Ascot Gold Cup
None. Few did get close winning 2000m race though.
St Leger
Nijinsky again - 1970 3 crown winner
Boucher - 1972 winner, mile to long
Oh So Sharp - 1985 fillies 3 crown winner, sprint to long
User Friendly - 1992 winner, mile to long, fell from G1 class to allowance for this though
Uhhhh.. what happened here then. Things I've noticed, I feel number of races run plummeted for Derby winners, fair number of them seemed specialised too, running very derby prep races. Gold cup, stayers really went homeless, wow. Mentions of few of them being horses in amateur rider races, of course before they won Gold cup but still it seems crazy. Leger, their win count really plummeted I felt, only a few impressive ones.
Ok so, as much as I'd like to go this is all Dancer's work, it's pretty clear it isn't at least all his work after doing this research. Important events I could think of
- Grading system introduced in 1971, this surely had a effect of where the horses would go, not much point going from G1 in long to less notable shorter distance race or so.
- I imagine the success of sprinters like Phalaris and Tetrarch as sires might've also had a hand in this.
- Traditionally nobility owners bred and raced their own horses but owning and racing became much more commercialised with syndicates and so on past WWII. Traditional horse was bred with Derby and Gold Cup in mind, these were the 2 most prestigious races that they wanted to win, but this stamina focused build often meant that horses would become late bloomers, they have a difficult time winning in shorter distance races available in 2 year old season and sometimes they might go past classic year without maturing to their staying abilities. Commercialization shifted interest to more speedy builds that can perform and bring in wins from 2 years old "they want instant success like a flicking switch". During this search I found mentions of stamina being unfavoured for Pandofell the 1961 Gold Cup winners stud career.
- Increased race horse count, couldn't find any specific numbers I've honestly spent too long on this so I will write some numbers I remember of leading sires, Phalaris had 100-200 total foals, grandson Nearco had 400-500 foals, grandson Northern Dancer had 600-700 foals and grandson Danehill had over 2k foals. As you can see numbers kept inflating, I imagine this meant horses really had to pick a distance they are good at and stick to it because of the increased competition when running top class races, specially for internationally competitive countries.
Northern Dancer question still lurks in my mind, since 1975 sprint finishing time has been gradually shortening and has been cut by more than a second. However middle and long has been stagnating, so if it is him then why are his effects not seen in higher distances, what changed for sprint specifically ? or is just that we've had many shorter distance leading sires now that that area is improving? in the future middle and long will likely also see improvements like this.
Rapid speed improvement also happened in early 1900s worthy to note, St Simon? (he did not have the C allele though)
I don't particularly have a finishing note. My theory that Dancer was the cause seems to be wrong. Thank you for reading.