u/ZapActions-dower

In the show, Hugh, Ulf, and Addam are sent to the banks of the Gods Eye to lay in wait for Aemond. Ulf has a weird poop and they all get spooked back home by Alys. I've seen some people say this was a pointless change from the book, but I think there are 2 or 3 key story points from the book that the scene was meant cover in addition to the realities of TV production.

Spoilers abound for later this season and probably the first half of Season 4.

Point #1: In Fire & Blood, we get the following after the Battle of the Gullet:

> Mushroom tells us there were two men on Dragonstone that night who drank to the slaughter in a smoky tavern beneath the castle: the dragonriders Hugh the Hammer and Ulf the White, who had flown Vermithor and Silverwing into battle and lived to boast of it. “We are knights now, truly,” Hard Hugh declared. And Ulf laughed and said, “Fie on that. We should be lords.”

> The girl Nettles did not share their celebrations. She had flown with the others, fought as bravely, burned and killed as they had, but her face was black with smoke and streaked with tears when she returned to Dragonstone. And Addam Velaryon, lately Addam of Hull, sought out the Sea Snake after the battle; what they spoke to each other even Mushroom does not say.

We get Nettles/Rhaena being traumatized by the battle and Addam seeking Corlys in Episdoe 2, but not Hugh and Ulf's celebration. Instead, the showrunners moved that key bit of characterization to before the battle: Ulf starting to realize that the all the Blacks are offering him is a knightship and in return for taming a dragon larger than any the Blacks have besides Vermithor.

Here's where I'm going to sneak in the production realities reason for the scene: having the three of them hang out by a lake is both cheaper than having six dragons at the Gullet all at one time and lets the drama of battle play out with less chaos for the viewer. Alys pops up to tell them they're late to the battle which gets them back on their book path and lets them get battle experience. Production reasons are a lot less fun to talk about than story issues, so I'll leave that there.

Point #2: Much later on in Fire & Blood, we get the following:

> The dragon was Seasmoke, his rider Ser Addam Velaryon, determined to prove that not all bastards need be turncloaks. How better to do that than by retaking Tumbleton from the Two Betrayers, whose treason had stained him? Singers say Ser Addam had flown from King’s Landing to the Gods Eye, where he landed on the sacred Isle of Faces and took counsel with the Green Men. The scholar must confine himself to known fact, and what we know is that Ser Addam flew far and fast, descending on castles great and small whose lords were loyal to the queen, to piece together an army.

Addam is rumored to have visited the Isle of Faces between when he leaves King's Landing and when he shows up to start the Second Battle of Tumbleton. Before that point in the book, there's no connection between him and the Gods Eye that I can see but this has fascinated fans for ages. To my knowledge, Addam and Howland Reed are the only characters in the entire series said to have visited that island so this is kind of a big deal.

Point #3: around the same time as the last point, we have this paragraph:

> For all these reasons, Lord Hammer (as he now styled himself) began to dream of crowns. “Why be a lord when you can be a king?” he told the men who began to gather round him. And talk was heard in camp of a prophecy of ancient days that said, “When the hammer shall fall upon the dragon, a new king shall arise, and none shall stand before him.” Whence came these words remains a mystery (not from Hammer himself, who could neither read nor write), but within a few days every man at Tumbleton had heard them.

This prophecy eventually finds its way to Hugh and to men who start to flock to him. This is my least strong point, which is why I kept it for last. The show deals a lot with prophecy, but there's only one prophecy in the book, this one. As you can see, the talk of prophecy kind of comes out of nowhere with no source ever being identified.

TL:DR: I believe that scene sets three things from the book up:

• Ulf realizing how little reward the Blacks plan to give him despite him having one of the largest dragons
• Addam being introduced to the Green Men
• Hugh being introduced to one of the major sources of prophecy in the books, greenseers

As to whether the scene works, that's an exercise I leave to the reader. My point is just that I believe I see what the idea behind the scene was.

I present two consecutive paragraphs from Rhaenyra's wiki page: https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Rhaenyra_Targaryen#Dance_of_the_Dragons

Spoilers, obviously.

> To gain more support to take the throne from her brother, Rhaenyra sent her son Jace on his dragon to treat with the Arryns, Manderlys, and Starks, and her son Luke to treat with Lord Borros Baratheon at Storm's End. Luke's mission was thought to be the safer journey, but he arrived at Storm's End to find Queen Alicent's younger son Aemond already there. Aemond, riding Vhagar, killed Luke over Shipbreaker Bay as he attempted to leave after failing to gain Lord Borros' allegiance. The news of Luke's death devastated his mother.

> Rhaenyra took the capital and sat in the throne for roughly half a year. Upon taking the city, Rhaenyra insisted on claiming her father's seat, and so she climbed the Iron Throne and accepted pleas of forgiveness and loyalty from those in the Red Keep all throughout the night. Although Rhaenyra was dressed in armor, Septon Eustace, who favored Aegon II, claimed that those present witnessed the throne leaving several cuts on her legs and left hand. The dripping blood would have been taken as a sign that the throne had rejected her; her days as ruler would be few. Eustace further claims that Rhaenyra would continuously cut herself more frequently when she sat on the Iron Throne and became more stout from gluttony during her time in King's Landing.

I didn't cut anything out in between those two paragraphs. Rhaenyra does so little between Luke's and Jace's deaths that the wiki doesn't even have a single word between her hearing that Luke had been killed and her flying to King's Landing to take it over.

Now, I think what the showrunners chose to do with her (her dumb meetings with Alicent) isn't very good, but anyone comparing it unfavorably against Fire & Blood should be aware of what exactly she does during that the same time period in the book: Nothing.

I was thinking about this the other day before the Fantano beef blew up but that topic has me thinking of it again. Back in the day, there were only so many music critics and people could generally be aware of the notable ones (or at least the publications they worked for) and have opinions and conversations about them.

With broadcast and cable being holdovers from a bygone era and print media dying, there isn’t much of that ecosystem left and the old tastemakers and gatekeepers have largely lost their power. But has anything replaced them? Are there any music critics left with any sort of cultural cachet?

Is Fantano really the last “big” music critic, or is there a whole other world I don’t know about?

Have we completely surrendered taste-making to algorithms and nerds on the internet?

Many years ago, I got some files from a neighbor (no foolin') labeled "Live at Beacon Theater 3-23-01" and have been trying to find the original source but have had no luck. Here's the tracklist:

1. Black Hearted Woman - 4:11
2. Stand Back - 6:39
3. Hoochie Coochie Man - 5:36
4. Feel So Bad - 7:46
5. Rocking Horse - 8:34
6. All Night Train - 11:03
7. Desdemona - 6:58
8. Jessica - 13:52

Warning: HEAVY spoilers to follow

Soon after Season 2 aired and I saw a post talking about how many pages Season 1 adapted vs Season 2, I’ve had the idea to do a deep-dive on the book to find out exactly how much did get adapted in the two seasons we’ve had so far but never actually sat down and did the work. Earlier this year, I got the kick in the pants that I needed from the Season 3 teasers and particularly the casting news and the result is this theory post!

The lynchpin of this whole analysis is that they’ve announced casting for Alysanne Blackwood, aka Black Aly. In the book, she gets a brief mention during the description of the Battle of Burning Mill and then does not appear again until after Aegon has retaken King’s Landing and sought to punish the Rosbys, Stokeworths, and Darklyns for their roles in the war, causing Elmo Tully to raise his banners and march on King’s Landing. She then participates in the Battle of the Kingsroad, convinces Cregan Stark to spare Corlys during The Hour of the Wolf, and after the war arranges for Widow Fairs to marry Northerners to widowed Riverlanders and marries Cregan. To my mind, there’s no reason for them to cast her unless they plan to do The Hour of the Wolf and I highly doubt they’d have any inclination to adapt all of “The Hooded Hand,” which means our end point is the end of The Hour of the Wolf.

I originally planned to determine how many pages were adapted into each episode but realized quickly that that method was not workable. Paragraphs don’t neatly line up with pages, and many pages have half the page taken up by an illustration or just blank space if it’s at the beginning or end of a chapter. With the goal being to find out “how much book got adapted into this episode?” it became clear that using paragraphs instead of pages as my basic unit was the better choice, so that’s what I used. The result of all of this is a spreadsheet listing all of the paragraphs in the book starting at chapter 12 “Heirs of the Dragon – A Question of Succession” and ending with chapter 19 “Aftermath – The Hour of the Wolf,” detailing the chapter it’s from, its position in the chapter, a summary of the key points of the paragraph, the larger event a group of paragraphs is detailing, and what episode it was adapted in.

Link to spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RkeS1m_4HFQGa3vVBJxII2NEkjwBE5jHtlqv35vc4ZM/copy

This spreadsheet is where the real value of all this work lives. I encourage anyone interested to take it and do your own analysis and draw your own conclusions. Just please credit me as the original creator if you post it anywhere.

As there are a number of paragraphs that consist of a single sentence or are only dialogue, I’ve added a weighting system. Paragraphs with only dialogue are weighted at 0.5 and single-sentence paragraphs are weighted 0, with everything else weighted as 1. In practice, this slightly downweights dialogue heavy events from the book like Daemon and Aemond’s showdown and Black Aly and Cregan’s big scene in The Hour of the Wolf. Footnotes are excluded from my analysis.

Three sections from the first chapter the show adapts, A Question of Succession, are marked as “Not Adapted” and also weighted as 0: the section on the background of the Great Council of 101, Corlys’ backstory, and Gildayn talking about his sources. Everything else I’ve assigned to a specific episode. For my purposes, each paragraph can only be adapted once, and I’ve been pretty generous about what counts as “adapting” a specific paragraph. For example, at the beginning of the chapter “A Son for a Son,” Jace visits the Vale, the Sisters, White Harbor, and Winterfell. I credited Season 2 Episode 1 as adapting almost all of that even though in the show we only see him go to the Wall to meet Cregan.

My main source for all of this is my own first-edition copy of Fire & Blood, which may differ from later editions. The number of paragraphs should be the same, but what paragraph is on which page may be different, which is another point against using pages for analysis. I also used http://searcherr.work/ to find specific passages. I’ve seen the trailers but haven’t overly analyzed them and have not been looking for leaks, though I did see something about a fake Daeron.

All the summarization and whatnot are my own work with no LLM assistance. As such, I’m sure it is full of real human inconsistencies and typos. I did use LLMs a little to help me find when something happened on the TV show or to clarify some timeline issues but always double-checked by actually watching or reading the scene in question rather than trust it at its word.

Without further ado, here’s my full breakdown of the two seasons already released!

Full Series So Far

• Mean paragraphs per episode: 18.06
• Median paragraphs per episode: 14

Season 1

• Mean paragraphs per episode: 22.3
• Median paragraphs per episode: 16
• Episode 1
  • Events:
    • Great Council of 101
    • Final years of Jaehaerys I are glossed over
    • Scene is set for this period in Viserys I’s reign
    • Daemon is introduced
    • Strongs are introduced
    • Aemma dies in childbirth, Daemon enrages Viserys by making the “heir for a day” quip
    • Rhaenyra is formally named heir
  • Paragraphs: 26
  • Percentage: 3.19%
• Episode 2
  • Events:
    • Triarchy is introduced
    • Criston Cole is appointed to Kingsguard and made Rhaenyra’s protector
    • Daemon takes Mysaria to Dragonstone, giving her a dragon egg and claiming she’s pregnant
    • Everyone wants Viserys to marry Laena, he instead chooses Alicent, causing Corlys to make plans with Daemon
  • Paragraphs: 13
  • Percentage: 1.6%
• Episode 3
  • Events:
    • Daemon and Corlys wage war against the Triarchy
    • Alicent bears children for Viserys
    • Rhaenyra needs a husband, Aegon is suggested and rejected
  • Paragraphs: 5
  • Percentage: 0.61%
• Episode 4
  • Events:
    • Many vie for Rhaenyra’s hand in marriage
    • Rhaenyra and Daemon engage in scandalous behavior
    • Rhaenyra agrees to marry Laenor
  • Paragraphs: 10
  • Percentage: 1.23%
• Episode 5
  • Events:
    • Rhae Royce dies
    • Lyonel Strong replaces Otto as Hand
    • Laenor is gay
    • Criston begs Rhaenyra to elope with him
    • Rhaenyra and Alicent fall out
    • Rhaenyra and Laenor get married
    • Alicent wears her green dress to the wedding
    • Criston kills Joffrey Lonmouth
  • Paragraphs: 12
  • Percentage: 1.47%
• Episode 6
  • Events:
    • New status quo after much time has passed
    • Jace born
    • Daemon marries Laena
    • Daemon and Laena tour Essos and stay in Pentos
    • Luke is born
    • Baela and Rhaena are born
    • Joffrey is born
    • Jace, Luke, and Joff all have baby dragons
    • Maester Orwyle made Grand Maester
    • Rivalry between Rhaenyra’s and Alicent’s sons
    • Jace and Baela, Luke and Rhaena are betrothed
    • Laena dies in childbirth
    • Lyonel and Harwin die in a fire at Harrenhal
  • Paragraphs: 23
  • Percentage: 2.83%
• Episode 7
  • Events:
    • Otto is made Hand again
    • Luke is heir to Driftmark
    • Funeral is held on Driftmark
    • Aemond loses and eye, gains a dragon
    • Laenor is killed
    • Rhaenyra marries Daemon
  • Paragraphs: 17
  • Percentage: 2.09%
• Episode 8
  • Events:
    • Scene is set for the end of Viserys’ reign
    • Rhaenyra has had two children by Daemon
    • Helaena has had twins by Aegon
    • Vaemond pushes his claim to be heir to Driftmark
    • Viserys is frail
    • Family dinner between Blacks and Greens
    • Viserys dies
  • Paragraphs: 15
  • Percentage: 1.84%
• Episode 9
  • Events:
    • Greens hold council after Viserys dies
    • Greens force Black supports in KL to bend the knee or die
    • Greens continue to make plans after the Green Council
    • Aegon is crowned King
  • Paragraphs: 46
  • Percentage: 5.65%
• Episode 10
  • Events:
    • Blacks hold council after Viserys dies
    • Rhaenyra is crowned Queen
    • Greens send terms of surrender to Rhaenyra
    • Rhaenyra rejects their terms
    • Luke treats with Borros Baratheon and is killed by Aemond and Vhagar
  • Paragraphs: 56
  • Percentage: 6.88%

Season 2

• Mean paragraphs per episode: 12.75
• Median paragraphs per episode: 12
• Episode 1
  • Events:
    • Jace treats with Cregan
    • Otto administrates and sends letters
    • Blacks and Greens react to other side refusing to back down and Luke’s death
    • Blood and Cheese
  • Paragraphs: 23
  • Percentage: 2.83%
• Episode 2
  • Events:
    • Greens react to Blood and Cheese
    • Daeron is introduced in dialogue and said to be fostered in Oldtown
    • “Spill blood, not ink”
    • Otto dismissed, Criston made Hand
    • Duel of the Cargylls and buildup
  • Paragraphs: 16
  • Percentage: 1.97%
• Episode 3
  • Events:
    • Battle of the Burning Mill
    • Daemon takes Harrenhal
    • Greens react to Riverlands losses
    • Criston plans to attack nearby Black holdings
    • Joffrey and Rhaena are sent to the Vale
    • Baela supports Jace
  • Paragraphs: 10
  • Percentage: 1.23%
• Episode 4
  • Events:
    • Daemon meets Alys Rivers
    • Grover Tully is bedridden and will not declare of Rhaenyra
    • Battle of Rook’s Rest and buildup
  • Paragraphs: 13
  • Percentage: 1.6%
• Episode 5
  • Events:
    • Blacks and Greens react to Rook’s Rest
    • Jace meets with lords
    • Black forces attack Brackens
    • Corlys named Hand of the Queen
    • Greens plan to have Jason Lannister attack Harrenhal from the West while Criston attacks from the South
  • Paragraphs: 11
  • Percentage: 1.35%
• Episode 6
  • Events:
    • Greens plan to ally with Triarchy
    • Aemond and Criston plan
    • Hightowers on the march, harassed by Beesburys and allies
    • Little Aegon and Viserys are planned to be sent to Pentos
  • Paragraphs: 7
  • Percentage: 0.86%
• Episode 7
  • Events:
    • Riverlords declare for Rhaenyra
    • Red Sowing and buildup
  • Paragraphs: 20
  • Percentage: 2.46%
• Episode 8
  • Events:
    • Men gather at Harrenhal
    • Blacks prepare assault after gaining more dragonriders
    • (This episode also adapts 7 paragraphs from “The Voyage of Alyn Oakenfist” with different characters but that’s way outside the core section)
  • Paragraphs: 2
  • Percentage: 0.25%

Each bullet point under “Events” represents a chunk of paragraphs from the book, ranging from 1 paragraph at the smallest to 41 for the Storming of the Dragonpit (36 after weighting is accounted for.)

With the weighting, there are 814 paragraphs total in the core Dance of the Dragons section of the book, with Season 1 covering 223 and Season 2 covering 102. If HBO hadn’t cut two episodes from the series and shorted the season orders late into the pre-production of Season 2, the showrunners wouldn’t be in nearly as big of a hole as they ended up in. Assuming Episode 9 would have been the Gullet and Episode 10 would have been the Taking of King’s Landing, Seasons 1 and 2 would have covered about 44% of the paragraphs, with 20 episodes to cover the remaining 56%. As it stands, they have covered slightly less than 40% and only have 16 episodes to cover the remainder.

As you can see, Season 2 really slowed down from Season 1 which I think we all felt but before now there wasn't a great way to compare exactly how much slower it was. The showrunners really had their work cut out for them and will need to dramatically increase the pace to make it through all of the book material if they want to get to the Hour of the Wolf. As I said above, I’m convinced that if they intended to skip it, they wouldn’t have bothered introducing Black Aly as it’s her biggest moment in the book.

We’ll see how well it goes but, in the meantime, after laying down all the groundwork to do the Season 1 and 2 breakdowns, I’ve already done the hard work and now we can have some fun trying to predict what will happen in Seasons 3 and 4:

Remainder of the series:

• Mean paragraphs per episode needed: 30.5625
• Median paragraphs per episode needed: 26.5

Season 3 Proposal/Educated Guess

• Mean paragraphs per episode: 23.5625
• Median paragraphs per episode: 21
• Episode 1
  • Events:
    • Greens plan the Riverlands war
    • Battle of the Honeywine
    • Battle of the Red Fork
    • Re-taking of Rook’s Rest by Lord Mooton
    • Somebody (Bryon Swann?) tries to kill Sunfyre like Serwyn of the Mirror Shield
    • Battle of the Gullet
  • Paragraphs: 22
  • Percentage: 2.7%
• Episode 2
  • Events:
    • Blacks react to the Gullet
    • Blacks react to the Honeywine
    • Greens react to the Honeywine
    • Dalton Greyjoy sacks Lannisport
    • Fall of King’s Landing
    • Aegon flees with Larys, Jaehaera is sent to Storm’s End
  • Paragraphs: 24
  • Percentage: 2.95%
• Episode 3
  • Events:
    • Rhaenyra brings her sons and Mysaria to King’s Landing
    • Manderly and Arryn forces arrive in King’s Landing
    • Rhaenyra hands out rewards to the loyal and punishes the disloyal
    • Criston and Aemond keep marching north, Jason keeps marching east
    • Winter Wolves keep marching south
    • Battle of Acorn Hall
    • Criston takes Harrenhal
    • Aemond arrives at Harrenhal after
    • Hightowers still marching north, Baratheons attack Dorne, Ironborn raid Fair Isle
    • Battle by the Lakeshore
  • Paragraphs: 23
  • Percentage: 2.83%
• Episode 4
  • Events:
    • Aftermath of the Battle of the Lakeshore, Criston marches back south while Aemond stays
    • Aegon lives on Dragonstone in hiding with Ser Marston Rivers
    • Bartimos raises taxes, becomes despised
    • Hugh and Ulf become despised
    • Rhaenyra becomes despised by association
    • Bitterbridge
    • Paragraphs: 20
    • Percentage: 2.46%
• Episode 5
  • Events:
    • Lady Caswell hangs those involved in Bitterbridge affair, tries to appease Rhaenyra and Ormund
    • Dalton Greyjoy takes Fair Isle
    • Ormund Sacks Bitterbridge
    • Criston keeps marching south, Aemond begins terror campaign
    • Criston finds the corpse feasts
    • Sabitha Frey takes Harrenhal
    • Aemond burns many castles
    • Butcher’s Ball
  • Paragraphs: 17
  • Percentage: 2.09%
• Episode 6
  • Events:
    • Aegon, Larys, and Jaehaera are at large, Lannisters beaten and distracted, Baratheon forces fresh
    • Aemond continues burninating the countryside, returns to Harrenhal to pick up Alys
    • Ormund and Daeron keep marching towards King’s Landing
    • Blacks hold a council, Corlys wants peace, Daemon wants Lannisters and Baratheons defeated and replaced by Hugh and Ulf, Rhaenyra wants to offer pardons only after Aemond and Daeron are dead, Alicent wants the realm divided
    • Brothel Queens (unlikely, but this is where it fits)
    • Daemon and Rhaena (Nettles) head north, Hugh and Ulf head south
  • Paragraphs: 16
  • Percentage: 1.97%
• Episode 7
  • Events:
    • Daemon and Rhaena (Nettles) hunt Aemond while based in Maidenpool
    • First Battle of Tumbleton
  • Paragraphs: 19
  • Percentage: 2.33%
• Episode 8
  • Events:
    • Sunfyre is spotted fighting Grey Ghost off the coast of Dragonstone
    • Baela tries to investigate but is shut down
    • Aegon, Tom Tanglebeard and Tom Tangleton, and Ser Marston Rivers discover Sunfyre
    • Aegon and crew find Sunfyre and they recover together on Dragonstone
    • Blacks hold council after hearing of the betrayals at Tumbleton, city gates are closed, Bartimos, Luther rgent, Lord Commander Larent Marbrand, and the Manderlys cast suspicion on Addam and Nettles, Corlys and Gerardys disagree, Rhaenyra turns to Mysaria who feeds into her fears
    • Rhaenyra orders Addam captured and questioned, Rhaena (Nettles) killed
    • Addam escapes but Corlys is imprisoned for helping him
    • Gerardys sent back to Dragonstone
    • Lord Mooton receives the command to kill Rhaena (Nettles) but instead informs Daemon, let’s them both leave, and declares for Aegon instead
    • Daemon retakes Harrenhal
    • Battle Over the God’s Eye
  • Paragraphs: 47.5
  • Percentage: 5.84%

Season 4 Proposal/Educated Guess

• Mean paragraphs per episode: 37.5625
• Median paragraphs per episode: 26.5
• Episode 1
  • Events:
    • After word of First Tumbleton reaches the population of King’s Landing, many turn to either religion or vice to cope, a man called the Shepherd starts preaching against Rhaenyra constantly
    • Green forces still at Tumbleton splinter without a clear leader or direction
    • Aegon recruits Alfred Broome to help take over Dragonstone
    • Two knights attempt to free Corlys from prison and are hanged. Helaena falls, jumps, or is pushed from a window and rumors are spread that Rhaenyra had her killed
    • Aegon takes Dragonstone, resulting in Moondancer’s death, Sunfyre being critically injured, Aegon’s legs shattered, and Baela imprisoned
    • A bloody riot breaks out due to unrest in King’s Landing. Bartimos Celtigar is killed by Wat the Tanner in his home and Luther Largent dies trying to break up the crowd around the Shepherd. Wat the Tanner rides through the city with Bartimos’ head, Gaemon Palehair is raised up on Rhaenys’ Hill and Trystane Truefyre on Visenya’s
  • Paragraphs: 44
  • Percentage: 5.41%
• Episode 2
  • Events:
    • When day breaks, Rhaenyra’s forces attempt to restore order and succeed somewhat but Mysaria warns that the second night of riots will be much worse than the first
    • Second night of riots: Wat the Tanner defeats the garrison at one of the gates and leads his followers out of the city while Gaemon’s and Trystane’s factions attract people to their causes. The Shepherd directs his followers to storm the Dragonpit. Joffrey attempts to fly Syrax to the Dragonpit first and falls to his death. Seven knights ride after him with some other men and retrieve most of his body. Hundreds of men and all of the dragons in the city are killed while Rhaenyra and Aegon the Younger watch. The council convenes and convinces Rhaenyra that King’s Landing is lost and that she must leave at dawn
  • Paragraphs: 46
  • Percentage: 5.04%
• Episode 3
  • Events:
    • The castle is left to a gold cloak commander and only Mysaria and Eustace stay. Trystane’s faction takes over the castle the same day and the prisoners are all freed and made part of Trystane’s court with Larys being the true power behind the throne
    • Moon of the Three Kings: Gaemon and Trystane’s factions keep gathering people to them. Over time, the Shepherd’s followers abandon him and Trystane’s faction swells
    • Addam gathers the remaining black forces in the Riverlands and leads them to attack the greens at the Second Battle of Tumbleton, resulting in the deaths of Hugh, Jon Roxton, Addam, Daeron, Vermithor, Seasmoke, and Tessarion
  • Paragraphs: 42
  • Percentage: 5.16%
• Episode 4
  • Events:
    • In the aftermath of the battle, Hobert (Otto?) sacrifices himself to poison Ulf. Unwin Peake takes control of e army and orders a retreat
    • Rhaenyra makes her way from King’s Landing to Stokeworth to Duskendale and cannot afford to bring any of her allies forces to her. Dragonstone won’t return her ravens. She sells her crown to buy passage to Dragonstone
    • Aegon has Broome set up a “suitable welcome” for Rhaenyra
    • Rhaenyra arrives at Dragonstone to be met by Broome and the corpses of her castellan and Maester Gerardys before finding Aegon and Sunfyre in the yard of the castle
    • Aegon has Sunfyre kill and eat Rhaenyra while Aegon the Younger Watches. Broome wants Aegon the Younger killed too but Aegon the Elder keeps him as a captive
  • Paragraphs: 29
  • Percentage: 3.56%
• Episode 5
  • Events:
    • Aegon makes plans to return to King’s Landing but Alyn still controls the Gullet. Aegon offers Alyn a pardon in exchange for allegiance
    • Sunfyre succumbs to his injuries and Aegon nearly has Baela beheaded before being reminded of how much he needs Alyn
    • Baratheon forces finally march on King’s Landing
    • The Shepherd’s dwindling forces fail to stop the Baratheons. When they arrive, Larys convinces Trystane to allow him, Alicent and Orwyle to go treat with the Baratheons
    • Larys, Alicent, and Borros make plans. Aegon and Larys are bethrothed to Borros’ daughters. Borros wants to bring in Corlys and give him a daughter too, but Alicent wants Corlys dead. Larys instead says they should use him til he’s no longer useful then dispose of him. Perkin the Flea and his followers are pardoned. Borros’s forces destroy Gaemon’s faction and take the leaders captive, then clear out the remainder of the Shepherd’s followers. Gaemon, Trystane, and the Shepherd are all imprisoned, a curfew is declared, and Corlys is returned to the small council
  • Paragraphs: 18
  • Percentage: 2.21%
• Episode 6
  • Events:
    • Aegon returns to King’s Landing
    • Aegon has Trystane and the Shepherd executed and spares Gaemon since he’s only 5 years old
    • Aegon disregards Corlys’ calls for peace and instead extracts ransoms and hostages from Rosby, Stokeworth, and Duskendale
    • In response, Lord Tully calls his banners and the Stark and Arryn forces gather. Rhaena has a dragon and is in the Vale
    • Aegon weighs options for a new dragon and rules out the Cannibal and Silverwing. He has 7 dragon eggs sent to King’s Landing from Dragonstone and attempts to hatch them
    • The Green council meets and argues over next steps with Tyland wanting to hire mercenaries from Essos and Borros wanting new armies from the Lannisters and Hightowers. Corlys insists the only way forward is offering pardons and storms out when Aegon the Elder talks of gelding Aegon the Younger and Tyland talks of killing him instead. Larys tries to remind everyone that they only need to go along with Corlys until he’s not useful but that he’s still vital to any workable plan.
    • Larys informs Corlys that the rest of the council is plotting to kill him and the two start their own scheme
    • Aegon orders the Dragonpit rebuilt with huge statues of Aemond and Daeron and may or may not have some weird sex habits
    • The Northern forces march down the neck and Arryn forces start to ship out from Gulltown
    • Borros gathers men from Rosby, Stokeworth, and Duskendale as well as his own forces and a large number of smallfolk to meet the Riverlands host marching down the Kingsroad
    • Battle of the Kingsroad: Borros rushes his forces into a terrible position, the Rosby and Stokeworth men do nothing and the Duskendale men instead attack the Baratheons. Borros is killed by Lord Tully after Black Aly’s archers shoot his horse out from under him
  • Paragraphs: 38
  • Percentage: 4.67%
• Episode 7
  • Events:
    • The Green council meets for a final time and Corlys advises Aegon to abdicate, saying that Aegon the Younger will allow him to take the black. Alicent shuts it down and instead suggests cutting Aegon the Youngers ear off and sending it to Lord Tully. Aegon says he’ll do the same to Baela if Alyn lets any Arryn ships through. Corlys nods, stands up, and leaves
    • Before even going to the last council meeting, Corlys put his and Larys’ conspiracy into motion and quickly and quietly eliminate Alfred Broome, the Two Toms, and a score of other men. Aegon drinks poisoned wine and dies
    • Corlys goes out to meet the Riverlands army after Aegon’s death
    • Word spreads quickly, avoiding another naval battle in the Gullet
    • The Riverlords parade through the city to fanfare probably orchestrated by Larys. Peace is declared and Aegon the Younger’s coronation and marriage to Jaehaera are planned. Rosby, Stokeworth, and Duskendale fall easily and so does Dragonstone after the servants revolt against the garrison Aegon left
    • Cregan and men arrive, ending the post-war high
  • Paragraphs: 31
  • Percentage: 3.81%
• Episode 8
  • Events:
    • Cregan intends to gather the Northern, Riverlands, and Arryn armies and attack Storm’s End, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock in that order. Cregan and Corlys butt heads and Cregan accuses him of the poisoining murder of Aegon II. Cregan imprisons Carlys, Larys, Orwyle, Perkin, Eustace and others
    • Cregan holds command as there is unrest in the city and unfounded rumors of a remaining Green force
    • The Ladies of Storm’s End, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock all make peace, ending Cregan’s ambitions to continue the war
    • Baela and Rhaena arrive and urge peace along with the Corbrays, Jeyne Arryn, and the Lads
    • Cregan insists on prosecuting anyone involved in the murder of Aegon II and sentences Orwyle, Ser Gyles Belgrave, Perkin and 22 of his men, the men who captured Alicent, and Corlys and Larys to death. Eustace and the men who freed Baela are spared. Baela and Rhaena convince Aegon III to pardon Corlys and restore him to the small council
    • Black Aly convinces Cregan to allow this by promising to marry him
    • All those slated for death are gathered. Perkin draws the short straw and goes first, electing to be sent to the wall. All other condemned to the same except Gyles Belgrave and Larys. After those two executions, Cregan renounces his Handship and returns home
    • Aegon III is married to Jaehaera
  • Paragraphs: 57.5
  • Percentage: 7.06%

In laying out my outline, I’ve tried to keep it so that any characters that won’t be relevant until Season 4 don’t need to be introduced until then. I’ve also decided to keep things relatively simple compared to how Season 1 and 2 tend to jump around and rarely do things in the order the book presents them. Events will definitely be shifted around in time in the coming seasons and some amount of buildup will be happening episodes in advance of major events, but I’m going for more broad strokes than accurately predicting everything little thing. Trying to accurately predict how the showrunners will want to reorganize the timeline to fit the realities of TV production feels like a sucker’s bet so I’ve elected to keep things as straightforward as I could.

Reasonable minds will differ on how exactly to assign paragraphs to episodes and certainly will predict the Season 3 and 4 pacing differently. I’m looking at all of this book-first with an eye on how to adapt the rest of the material at a relatively steady pace, while the actual showrunners will be trying to make compelling television for a general audience, not just people like reading fake history books. This is just one way things could play out, with my goal being to show one way the showrunners could structure the rest of the series to be able to get through all the book material before they run out of episodes.

As a bit of dessert after this huge nitty-gritty post, here are a few predictions I’ve thought of while deep-diving the book:

• Black Aly is almost certainly taking the place of Red Robb Rivers, another Blackwood-related archer, who is a major commander at the Battle of the Lakeshore, Butcher’s Ball, and First Tumbleton. Red Robb and two of his archers kill Criston before the main battle of the Butcher’s Ball in the book.
• Rather than just staying at the Red Keep after Rhaenyra abandons it and getting killed the next day like a chump, Mysaria will link up with Sylvi (most likely taking the place of Sylvenna Sand) and Dyana to raise up Gaemon Palehair, setting up a Moon of the Three Kings rivalry with:
• Larys who will have a direct, explicit role in Rhaenyra’s downfall and will be clearly shown to be the mastermind behind Perkin the Flea and Trystane Truefyre.
• I’m confident Addam will be meeting with the Green Men on the Isle of Faces or else they wouldn’t have shown one last season.