u/ajkomajko

Delim svoj pogled na pričakovani donos slovenskega nepremičninskega trga, ki je verjetno eden glavnih temeljev za ustvarjanje premoženja / portfelja mnogih v slovenski FIRE skupnosti.

Menim, da rast cen nepremičnin v zadnjih ~50 letih (npr. podvojitev ljubljanskih cen zadnjih 10 let) ni "new normal". Gre predvsem za posledico več dejavnikov, ki so se poklopili hkrati: rast prebivalstva, urbanizacija, manjšanje povprečnega gospodinjstva, padec obrestnih mer, podaljševanje ročnosti kreditov in pa splošna financializacija nepremičninskega trga. Prepričan sem, da je večina teh zgodovinsko pozitivnih tailwind-ov cenam sedaj dosegla prelomno točko, kar mora upoštevati vsaka dolgoročna kalkulacija donosa. Sam pričakujem, da se bo (na dolgi rok) rast cen nepremičnin ustalila blizu inflacije.

Če pa se kljub temu odločiš, da v svojem portfelju želiš nepremičninski exposure, pa vprašanje ostaja kako jo doseči. Sam menim, da je v tem primeru nakup delnice Equinox relativno boljša naložba kot direktni nakup nepremičnine. Ob predpostavki, da bodo cene nepremičnin v prihodnje rasle zgolj z inflacijo (pri 2 % letno), vidim dolgoročni skupni pričakovani donos delnice Equinoxa pri okoli 8 % letno. Ta je sestavljen iz približno 2,4 % neto dividendne donosnosti, 2,5 % efektivne rasti NAV ter dodatnih približno 3,2 % rasti iz reinvestiranja zadržanega denarnega toka (FFO).

Na priloženi sliki tudi primerjava pričakovanega donosa med nakupom stanovanja brez kredita (Option A), nakupom stanovanja s kreditom (Option B) in nakupom delnice Equinox (Option C).

Not financial advice, just my view. Veselim se vaših mnenj in pogledov na to temo. Več podrobnosti o kalkulaciji in mojih asumpcijah pa je na voljo na mojem Substacku: https://open.substack.com/pub/illiquidalpha/p/equinox-nepremicnine-ljse-eqnx-a?r=2x95n3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Everyone knows Software is down. It’s about picking the best ones. So it comes down to AppLovin and Reddit. Don’t ask me how. Just trust!

I’m not investing in a company called AppLovin. It’s already embarrassing talking about being a Reddit investor. What kinda name is AppLovin lmao.

They say invest in stuff you know and I know Reddit better than my Exes clitoris.

We got revenue growing at around 70% a year. With 90% gross margins. EPS growing in the triple digits. The PE is 50 and the forward PE is 35. This shit growing faster than it’s trailing PE!!

The PEG is the god indicator and it’s under .3!! For a company growing around 70%!! You retards probably don’t even know what the PEG is. It’s not about Pegging, sure that’s also amazing, no it’s Price to Earnings Growth! Anything under 1 is considered undervalued. This stock has a beta of 2 yet its PEG isn’t even half of 1. Well tbh that’s for TTM. For future it’s closer to 1 at 1.2, but we will soon go over how bad analyst are at projecting Reddit earnings. Later on.

Ok so you might ask what are the risks? Well pegging comes with a lot of risks but if you mean this stock then very little.

RISKS

Welllll if there’s a recession, then Reddit is screwed. They rely on Ads primarily to make money and companies cut ad budgets the first during recessions.

Management only guided for 44% revenue growth in Q2. I believe they are sandbagging. The previous 7 quarters they beat analysts, which already guide slightly higher than Management. In fact the average EPS beat is around 50%. Yes you read that correctly, avg eps beat is very high and the FWD PE is only 35.. which takes in analyst predictions, which they always easily beat…

The real risks are Google deprioritizing Reddit links. I believe this will not happen. We are in the age of AI now and Google already summarizes everything. Reddit constitutes the largest share of their citations. And people want human opinions most for some reason. If they stopped giving Reddit good citations then Reddit will stop letting Google access its website in the future.

So how does the future look?

ADS ADS ADS

I think Reddit will become a tier 1 ads player along with Google and meta. Google commands highest ad prices bcuz they serve you the perfect ads for what you are looking for. Meta knows you better than you know your wife’s clitoris. So they can target random perfect ads to you.

So why would basement dwelling redditors be as good as those customers? Well we possess both of those. Subreddits are niche communities. And they can be perfectly targeted for the exact type of products suited for those members. So for example, in the ford subreddit, any car marker who wants to target ford fans/customers can set up ads. Now that is a goldmine for said automaker. Chevy would love to advertise to these types of people. Consequently this applies to almost all niches yall regards are into. Hence like Facebook, except we are more authentic here than on Facebook. People aren’t going to talk about depression or hair loss or erectile disfunction on Facebook as they would here.

Ok so then why aren’t we already a tier 1 ads players? Why does Reddit have cheap prices for ads? That’s bcuz Reddit is still new in its monetization journey. Reddit was focused on the core product for most of its history. They intentionally grew slowly and let communities build before finally now monetization the platform.

Now Reddit is focusing on rapid user growth, engagement and advertiser teaching and adoption.
There are low number of advertisers on Reddit bcuz historically they didn’t know how to show us degens Ads. We would troll the fuck out of them if the Ad wasn’t suited for us. We would post harambe with massive dick pics in the comments etc. But Reddit has done a lot of work teaching and automating to make it easier for advertisers to make Ads tailored for reddit. Now the flywheel is set and the Ad world is learning the potential of high intent communities. Right as Google and meta ad prices are getting out of control. Reddit is 1/4 or Metas average revenue per user (ARPU). So even if user growth stalls (unlikely), we have many years of high growth for ARPU just to catch up.

Our low ad rates is bcuz less advertisers, they can set up expensive ads in popular subreddits or they can target the same user when he visits less popular subreddits. Number of advertisers is growing also really fast around 70% a year. And recently they just added Shopify integration. Shopify is promoting Reddit as an Alternative to tier 1 ad players but at a fraction of the cost.

OTHER RISKS

Reddit stopped reporting Logged in users. Essentially bcuz tbh US logged in growth stalled. But logged out users is still a massive number. Reddit has been working to bridge the advertising gap between the two. Visiting niche communities already sets intent. So logging in doesn’t matter all that much. And we have seen companies like Netflix, Apple stop reporting numbers and the stock did fine in the long term.

I believe we will keep growing in users, Reddits daily users are around 126M (Q1 report) growing in the low double digits. I believe people are more and more becoming lonely and need community. And Reddit is probably the best online social media for that. Facebook is trash let’s be honest, Instagram is good tho, TikTok is full of broke kids etc.

BONUS

Reddits side gig is selling its User data to LLMs. Currently the rate is $60M a year. Which is considered by pretty much everyone and their mother to be a steal.
The renewals will come up in early 2027 and are expected to be a few times that amount at the minimum. Now why would they renew if they already mined all the data? Well without constant fresh human data, LLMs would start stagnating in relevant info over time. The internet is starting to shut its doors to bots as well. If LLMs don’t get fresh human data and keep getting bot data, then that leads to so called Model Collapse. Reddit is the perfect website for LLMs, it’s all human data now, with thoughtful responses, pre sorted by humans. And moderated by humans. Nothing like it exists.

Well not entirely, competition does exist. Hence the software sell off. But it takes years/decades to build up communities, hence they all die pretty quickly. Not even worth mentioning them.

TLDR: growing faster than PE. Just getting started with monetization. Data deals coming up for renewal with massive price increases.

POSITIONS: 1278 shares, 10 $200 strike calls expiring 6/16/28, 5 $200 strike calls expiring 8/21/26 (gamble trade)

Positions proof: https://imgur.com/a/VUeJnu9

I don’t have a set price target, just know we are very undervalued with little risk. I would say Reddits Fair PE would be at least twice what it is right now. So double the stock price, considering the growth. But with data deals set to increase in value, I would say 3x current stock price is a reasonable target. So $500 by year end.

#RDDT #NotRelationshipAdvice