Thoughts on what’s behind the recent CMPS and HELP drops?

These stocks were in the $14-$15/share range in the last 2 weeks and now they’re in the $11’s. I’ve been in this space since 2022 so I know how crazy the stock price action can be and used this as an opportunity to load up on ~6k more shares (split evenly between the two), but not gonna lie that I’m a little nervous.

These next few months are probably the most consequential in the history of this industry, with COMP360 approval coming (or not), and I’ve got a little less than $700k in this space (split between the two stocks, with probably 60% in CMPS and 40% in HELP), and having some anxiety about this dip, even though I’ve had steady diamond hands up through this point.

Just wanted to see what other people think is behind the recent sharp drop in these two stocks? I think it’s a mixture of interest rates rising, foreign stocks falling, and general risk-off approach to small/micro-cap stocks, but my biggest worried is that people who are in the know are selling because they’re hearing something is going to happen re COMP360 approval (including possibly harsh REMS requirements).

Thoughts?

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u/backtobrooklyn — 13 days ago
▲ 7 r/miley

Miley Amex pre-sale for Hollywood Bowl - pretty awful :(

I’m in the Amex presale for Miley Hollywood Bowl tickets that started at 10am. I joined the queue the second it would let me, around 940am or so. It’s now 10:14am and I’m still 18,685th in line. FWIW, I think the Hollywood Bowl only seats 17,500 people or so.

How have they still not figured out pre-sales?

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u/backtobrooklyn — 1 month ago

AtaiBeckley definite proxy statement out - thoughts?

Would love to know people’s thoughts on the definitive proxy statement for ATAI which just came out today.

This is my first rodeo with an acquisition like this but it seems that
- vote is scheduled Sept 8th
- seems like people continuing to hold will be paid out shortly after (if it’s approved)
- it seems unlikely a buyer will come out of the blue at this point
- this transaction is on the lower end of what the 2 financial advisors said was a “fair” price (shocker)

I’m voting no with my ~120k shares personally, but think it’s moving forward regardless of my little slice of the pie.

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u/backtobrooklyn — 2 months ago

My LA Olympics itinerary!

I love the Olympics and was absolutely crushed when I got selected for the locals presale and none of the events I wanted to see were available during my drop.

I was close to buying hospitality tickets for the one event I wanted to see most, the 10m men’s diving final, and even had a contract sent to me ($2,500 for 2 tickets in Category B seats) when I received an email that I was selected for the Visa presale. I let the hospitality contract expire and then found out I got selected for the 7/29 10am drop.

I almost lost my tickets during the infamous blue screen of death, but got out of it with enough time to buy my tickets - and here’s what I came away with!

This is missing some details but the diving men’s final is for the 10m synchronized event and the diving men’s semifinal is for 3m springboard. What’s really cool is right after the 10m sync final ends, I just have to walk 15 minutes away to get to the Rose Bowl Stadium for the soccer men’s final that starts 1 hour after diving ends.

I didn’t want to pay for Category A for diving, but it’s the only ticket class that was available (and I went right to it after logging in). The only event I really wanted and didn’t get was artistic gymnastics, but I’m excited that I got rhythmic and trampoline gymnastics. I also plan to take an edible before artistic swimming and have a feeling that’s going to be the best thing ever.

Feel awful for everyone who got burned, but I’m so friggin’ excited!

u/backtobrooklyn — 3 months ago
▲ 95 r/Fire

For those who have FIRE’ed - how often do you think about money? Are you stressed about money often?

FIRE changed my life - I started in 2018 with like a $50k net worth and $0 in brokerage and I currently have a ~$2.6m net worth with ~$2.45m in invested assets (90% of that is in broad market ETFs split 70/30 between US/international and 10% in single stocks).

I’m 41, single and won’t have kids, live in a VHCOL area, and my annual spend is around $150k right now. Travel and fitness are my biggest discretionary expenses - without them, could probably bring my spend down to $120k or so, but I’d rather work longer than change my spending there). Right now, I’ve set my FIRE number at $4m, though it feels like it keeps going up every year thanks mostly to inflation.

Given my income and amount invested each year (make around $500k pre tax and invest around $180k) and depending on how the markets do, I think it’s possible I’ll hit my FIRE number by 45-47. But to get to FIRE, I’ve been absolutely obsessive about investing as much as possible, checking my net worth and investments (which is a little wild with a mostly broad market portfolio), doing safe withdrawal math, optimizing my portfolio including for tax-loss harvesting, etc. I’m working through some of this in therapy as I know a lot of the obsession I have comes from OCD and isn’t based in the reality of what I need to do in order for me to FIRE.

College/grad school was always an economic decision for me - I grew up dirt poor and my sole goal was to make enough money so that I never had to worry about money again. Even though my spend seems high, my day-to-day is pretty basic - live in a 1-bedroom condo, don’t have a car, rarely buy new clothes or go out to eat, etc. So when I say I don’t want to worry about money, I’m not saying I want to get private jets and never have to think about it — I just mean I want to live pretty much the life I’m leading now, just without working and without having to check my back account or the market more than maybe once a month or quarter.

So I’m just wondering, for people who have FIRE’ed (especially ChubbyFIRE’ed), do you find yourself stressed about money or basically just living your life not thinking much about money? I basically just want to make sure I’m not trading in work for a life where I’m just constantly stressed about money.

And if you have any advice on how to be less obsessive about getting to FIRE will still finding motivation to be a hyper-saver/investor, I’m all ears.

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u/backtobrooklyn — 3 months ago

Questions about CMPS (considering investing in it again)

I’m a former CMPS investor and moved everything to ATAI about 2 years ago (have a significant position with ATAI). I made a bunch by doing that, but I’m not thrilled with the Lilly deal and I’m considering reopening a position in CMPS.

That said, I haven’t that paid much attention to CMPS over the last 2 years and had some questions about the company that I’d love to get thoughts on.
- Assuming COMP360 gets approved, isn’t it going to be incredibly expensive to transition to making the product commercially viable? My main concern is that there’s going to be heavy dilution once it’s approved to hire a sales force and get processes in place to commercialize the drug.
- How good were the results from COMP360’s Phase 3 (and Phase 2b, for that matter)? BPL003 blew it out of the park, I thought, so am just not sure how good COMP360 is in comparison.
- How has or will Compass solve for the issue of treatments taking 4-8 hours? My thought was always that this would be very difficult to scale and there’s no infrastructure in place for this currently, like there is for BPL003 (that fits into the 2-hour Spravato model).
- Also, with a treatment taking 4-8 hours, won’t a lot of the money spent on the drugs go to the treatment facilities and practitioners instead of being spent on the drug? If that’s the case, how profitable will COMP360 actually be?
- What’s a realistic guesstimate of how much COMP360 could earn per year, say 2-3 years after it’s approved based on the TAM?
- How is the company management, including with transparency and previous experience? Have you been impressed with any specific decisions they’ve made?
- What do you think are the biggest headwinds facing CMPS in its quest to become worth $5-$10bn or more? What are you most worried about and why?
- I think I remember getting charged a fee for holding CMPS in my account - do they still that and how much is it?
- Why CMPS over the other players here?
- What would you consider a good entry point to be? At what share price are you loading up?

Just trying to get answers here to see if I should reinvest - thank you!

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u/backtobrooklyn — 3 months ago

How much earthquake insurance to get for a condo?

I’m a first-time homeowner in LA and my condo was about $600k. Earthquake insurance is tricky for condos, since there’s the outside of the building which would be covered by the HOA and inside where some is covered by me and other parts (like pipes) are the building.

I don’t have like insanely expensive art or furniture or anything like that inside. With that, my current policy is:
- Dwelling: $150k
- Personal Property: $31k
- Loss of Use: $15k
- Loss Assessment: $5k

Is this way too low, too high, not enough? If you have experience here, what would you recommend?

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u/backtobrooklyn — 3 months ago
▲ 6 r/amex

Start with Amex Green or Amex Gold before Amex Schwab Platinum?

So even though I've been in the Amex ecosystem since around 2008, I've never held the Amex Green, Amex Gold, or Amex Platinum cards. I just got rid of Amex Biz Platinum card and my goal is to get the Schwab Amex Platinum within the next 1-2 years, but since I know applying for that will mean I can never get the Amex Green or Amex Gold SUB's, I'm trying to decide on my strategy right now which is either:

Option 1

  • Get the Amex Green for 40k SUB
  • Wait for an upgrade offer to Amex Gold and hope it's high (anything under 60k means I should have just gone for the Amex Gold to start)
  • If I don't get an upgrade offer for Gold, apply for it on my own in a year

The main benefit of going this route is I could potentially get an upgrade offer of 80k-100k points so that I'd earn 120k-140k points total, but I'm not sure how rare that is. The main downside is that it will extend how long it will take me to get a Schwab Platinum card (could be 1-2 years before I get it), since I might have to wait 6-12 months for an upgrade offer or apply for the Gold seperately.

Option 2

  • Get the Amex Gold for the 100k SUB bonus now
  • Apply for the Schwab Platinum in 6-12 months

The main benefit of going this route is that it locks in the 100k SUB for Gold now, which I know is at or near an all-time high. The main downside is it means I'll never get at Amex Green SUB offer (I know 40k isn't amazing, but I'm looking to get the new card sooner rather than later)

Some other factors to consider are:

Even though I can apply for the Green, Gold, and Schwab Platinum separately, I'd like to avoid applying for all 3 as I've signed up for 3 personal credit cards in the last year (Atmos Summit, Chase Sapphire Reserve, and Citi AAdvantage Platinum)

I've historically been a high spender with Amex generally putting around $100k-$150k/year in spend on my various Amex cards, at least over the last few years. Only mentioning this in case it makes it more likely that I'd get a nice upgrade offer from Green to Gold

I do not want to take advantage of a Green to Platinum offer, as I want the Schwab Platinum as a forever card, so if you think there's a decent chance my Green upgrade offer will be to Platinum and not Gold, let me know.

Questions are:

  • In my shoes, would you go for Option 1 or Option 2? Why?
  • What do you think the odds are of me being offered 60k or more to upgrade to Gold?

And if there's another path/strategy you think I should consider, I'm all ears!

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u/backtobrooklyn — 3 months ago

Goal is to end up with the Amex Schwab Platinum - should I start with the Amex Green (40k SUB) or Amex Gold (100k) first?

So even though I've been in the Amex ecosystem since around 2008, I've never held the Amex Green, Amex Gold, or Amex Platinum cards. I just got rid of Amex Biz Platinum card and my goal is to get the Schwab Amex Platinum within the next 1-2 years, but since I know applying for that will mean I can never get the Amex Green or Amex Gold SUB's, I'm trying to decide on my strategy right now which is either:

Option 1

  • Get the Amex Green for 40k SUB
  • Wait for an upgrade offer to Amex Gold and hope it's high (anything under 60k means I should have just gone for the Amex Gold to start)
  • If I don't get an upgrade offer for Gold, apply for it on my own in a year

The main benefit of going this route is I could potentially get an upgrade offer of 80k-100k points so that I'd earn 120k-140k points total, but I'm not sure how rare that is. The main downside is that it will extend how long it will take me to get a Schwab Platinum card (could be 1-2 years before I get it), since I might have to wait 6-12 months for an upgrade offer or apply for the Gold separately.

Option 2

  • Get the Amex Gold for the 100k SUB bonus now
  • Apply for the Schwab Platinum in 6-12 months

The main benefit of going this route is that it locks in the 100k SUB for Gold now, which I know is at or near an all-time high. The main downside is it means I'll never get at Amex Green SUB offer (I know 40k isn't amazing, but I'm looking to get the new card sooner rather than later)

Some other factors to consider are:

  • Even though I can apply for the Green, Gold, and Schwab Platinum separately, I'd like to avoid applying for all 3 as I've signed up for 3 personal credit cards in the last year (Atmos Summit, Chase Sapphire Reserve, and Citi AAdvantage Platinum)
  • I've historically been a high spender with Amex generally putting around $100k-$150k/year in spend on my various Amex cards, at least over the last few years. Only mentioning this in case it makes it more likely that I'd get a nice upgrade offer from Green to Gold
  • I do not want to take advantage of a Green to Platinum offer, as I want the Schwab Platinum as a forever card, so if you think there's a decent chance my Green upgrade offer will be to Platinum and not Gold, let me know.

Questions are:

  • In my shoes, would you go for Option 1 or Option 2? Why?
  • What do you think the odds are of me being offered 60k or more to upgrade to Gold?

And if there's another path/strategy you think I should consider, I'm all ears!

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u/backtobrooklyn — 3 months ago
▲ 218 r/Fire

The last stretch of FIRE has been the hardest for me

I started my FIRE journey at 34 and at that point, my stretch goal was to have $1m invested by 45. I’m currently 41 with a $2.3m NW and $2.1m of that invested - so by all accounts, I’m crushing my goals (and yes, I realize how lucky and fortunate I am to be in this position).

My hope is to hit FI in the next 3-5 years, but this last part of FIRE has been the hardest for me (at least, mentally/emotionally). In the first and middle parts, success was based largely on my actions: how much income I earned, how much I saved, and investing wisely, whereas this last part feels like it’s almost entirely out of my hands. For example:
- Whether I hit FIRE is now now more dependent on how the market performs than how much I earn/invest. I graduated into the Great Recession, so relying on the economy gives me a ton of anxiety.
- With inflation and some lifestyle creep (mostly moving from a rental studio to a 1-bedroom condo, getting the dog I always wanted, and taking bucketlist kind of vacations more often), the goalpost for how much I need to retire seems to keep getting further away.
- There’s a non-zero chance that AI could drastically reduce my earnings. And yes, I’m doing what I can to prevent that from happening, but it is still a possibility.
- I feel less resilient than ever, which is ironic considering my financial position. I grew up poor, but I’m now comfortable being comfortable. Could I go back to a studio and budgeting in coffee every week? Sure. But I really don’t want to, if I can avoid it. Also I live in a HCOL area and while I know I could retire somewhere cheaper right now, I have a great social life and friends here that I don’t want to leave.

Has anyone else struggled with the last stretch of FIRE? Any tips?

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u/backtobrooklyn — 4 months ago

Why do people psychologically think it's okay to have their dogs off leash when they're in on-leash areas?

I keep running into the same issue in my neighborhood -- though there are clear signs saying dogs must be kept on a leash, on almost every walk I go on with my dog, there are at least 1-2 dogs we run into that are off-leash. When I first got my dog I didn't mind much, but then he was viciously attacked by an off-leash dog and so now I'm very aware of it.

I'm just trying to understand what's going through peoples' heads when they decide to walk their dogs off leash when they know they are in an on-leash area? Even today, I told a dog owner "Hey, this is an on-leash area -- can you please put your dog on-leash?" and he just ignored me (even though he had the leash in his left hand). A few minutes later, his dog ran up to me and my pooch and I said "HEY! This isn't cool - can you please put your dog on leash?!" and he just didn't respond and instead crossed the street with his dog. A few minutes later, another dog owner was having a similar issue with his dog.

I'm a very consciousness person. For example, an acquaintance of mine told me she's bothered by people wearing cologne and I haven't worn cologne since then whenever I'm somewhere I know she's going to be. So for me, it's hard to understand not thinking of others when I do something -- and I'm just trying to understand what goes on in the heads of people who think it's fine to just ignore the rules and do what they want with their dogs.

FWIW, my question probably could be applied more broadly than just dog walks -- like what is going through peoples' heads when they're at an airport and decide to listen to music or watch a TV show on their iPhone with no headphones on? Given how my mind works, it's so hard for me to understand.

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u/backtobrooklyn — 5 months ago

How much would pay for upgrade from business to first on A380?

I’m currently seat 53A (Club World) for two 10+ hour flights on BA, both A380s, and it looks like their first class is currently pretty open.

I was looking at pics online of the A380 first class and it doesn’t seem like over-the-top amazing - it seems more in-line with QSuites than like, Emirates or even Lufthansa first.

With that, just wondering if it’s worth upgrading to first and if so, how much you’d personally pay per flight? Both flights are technically red eyes but I doubt I’ll be able to sleep the full flight for both.

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u/backtobrooklyn — 5 months ago

It looks like I may qualify from Romanian citizenship by descent and I am very excited about it. That said, I don't know any Romanian right now and I'm curious how long it would take me to learn it and the best ways to study?

I can devote 5-10 hours a week to it and am willing to have at least weekly sessions over Zoom with a tutor, possibly more. Would ideally love to be at this level in less than 1 year, but I'll put in whatever effort it takes.

I don't speak any language other than English, though I used to be okay at conversational Spanish.

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u/backtobrooklyn — 6 months ago