u/briggles23

We're seeing poll after poll of One Nation exploding in popularity and even some polls now saying that Hanson is being seen as preferred PM to Albanese.

So my question is, is this all designed to try and scare Labor into an early election before 2028?

My theory as to why they are trying to do this is because Trumps 2nd term finishes in 2028, and with him goes the global MAGA Far-Right movement. So any way they can trigger an election sooner rather than later would help them greatly while Far-Right movements are still hot globally. At the very least, going by primary vote count, One Nation would be able to wield a lot more power in the Senate due to them currently having a greater number in proportional voting now.

If Labor manage to hold the line, and pull off another election win in 2028, even if it's a Minority win, will One Nation's momentum still be able to hold if they become, say, opposition instead of Leading Party?

There's also speculation that Hanson is gonna try and parachute her daughter into the Senate as a successor plan for when she retires, which will piss off other party members like Joyce and Ashby. So will One Nation even be able to hold as a party by 2031? It kinda seems that's what Abbott and the LNP are banking on. They see 2028 as a lost cause, and instead let One Nation take over opposition for a term and let them naturally fall apart.