u/etiennea1

I built a model to evaluate NHL draft performance from 2000–2023 by comparing each pick to the players available at the time of selection.

The idea is to measure whether teams consistently extract more or less value than what was realistically on the board.

When aggregating results by organization, one trend stood out:

The Toronto Maple Leafs rank among the strongest teams over a recent 5-year drafting window (according to the model).

This includes both early-round impact and depth-value picks relative to expectations at draft position.

I wasn’t necessarily expecting that level of consistency given some of the historical perception around the team’s drafting.

Curious how Leafs fans interpret this:

Do you think this reflects improved scouting/development in recent years, or is it more situational variance in draft classes?

Over the past few months, I built a model to evaluate NHL draft performance from 2000–2023.

The project actually started with a simple question: how good was the Canadiens' drafting record during the Trevor Timmins era?

Over the years, some people praised Timmins as one of the league's best amateur scouts, while others pointed to the Canadiens' lack of homegrown star talent as evidence of poor drafting. I wanted to see what the data had to say.

Instead of looking only at games played or point totals, each pick is evaluated relative to the players who were still available when the selection was made. The goal is to estimate whether a team extracted more or less value than could reasonably have been expected at that draft slot.

This graphic summarizes the Canadiens' draft history since 2000, including:

year-by-year performance

the organization's best draft picks

its biggest misses

One result stood out to me: according to the model, Montreal's 2008–2018 stretch ranks among the weakest sustained drafting periods in the NHL over the last 25 years.

Of course, no model is perfect, and drafting is only one piece of building a successful organization. But I thought the results were interesting enough to share with fellow Habs fans.

Looking back, do you think the Canadiens' draft struggles during that period were mostly due to scouting, player development, management decisions, or simply bad luck?

I recently spent some time analyzing NHL drafts from 2000 to 2023 to try to answer a simple question:

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Which organizations actually maximize their draft picks over the long run?

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Instead of just looking at games played or point totals, I built a model that evaluates each pick in context:

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Each player is compared to the 20 players drafted before and after them

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This creates a “local talent window” around every selection

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The goal is to estimate what was actually available at the time of the pick

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From there, every draft pick receives a score:

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50 = best player available

Above 50 = steal

Below 50 = bust

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Some interesting patterns emerge when you aggregate 20+ years of data across all 32 teams.

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In particular, draft performance appears to vary much more consistently across organizations than I expected.

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If people are interested, I can share the full rankings and methodology breakdown.