u/joelala1

Launching a new content type today alongside our daily HR model — NRFI picks we’re calling **Scoreless First**.

The model scores each game on starter quality, top-4 lineup offense, pitcher vulnerability, park factor, and game total. Higher score = more likely no run scores in the 1st inning. We’ll only post when the model finds genuinely strong spots, not every day.

Today’s top 3:

**1. ATH @ SD — 9:40 PM ET**

Top confidence play on the slate. Strong starter matchup, low-scoring environment.

**2. NYM @ MIA — 4:10 PM ET**

High confidence. loanDepot Park suppresses offense and the model likes both starters early.

**3. SEA @ KC — 4:10 PM ET**

Good confidence. Pitching edges both lineups in the 1st.

Still early days on this model — happy to discuss methodology or take feedback on the format. Going to track results and share outcomes as we go.

Who else is playing NRFI props today?

Sharing our daily hot hitter tracker — Statcast-backed data on who's locked in right now based on AVG, SLG, Barrel %, Hard Hit %, and Avg EV.

Today's top bats:

- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — 7 HR in his last 7 games, slugging .865 over 10 days. One of the hottest individual stretches in baseball this season

- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — .409 AVG and .909 SLG over 10 days. Quietly one of the best bats in the game right now

- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — 7-game hit streak with 4 HR in 10 days, leads MLB in WAR

- JJ Bleday (CIN) — 2 HR yesterday, 6 XBH over 10 days

- A.J. Ewing (CIN) — 87.5% hard hit rate in his last 3 games, emerging catcher worth watching

Schwarber and Goldschmidt are the standout prop plays today. Witt Jr. is a near-lock anytime he's in a good matchup.

Running a Statcast-based HR model scoring hitters on Barrel %, Avg EV, park factors, and pitcher matchups. Here are tonight's top 10 targets on a 15-game slate.

Best value on the board tonight:

- Matt Olson (#1) leads the model despite T-Mobile Park (92) — his Statcast profile is just that dominant right now. Leading MLB in extra-base hits on the season

- Aaron Judge (#2) vs Nathan Eovaldi (flagged vulnerable) at Yankee Stadium (121) — one of the best HR props on the board tonight

- Bryce Harper (#4) at Citizens Bank Park (116) — great park factor boost

- Wrigley Field (108) shows up 3 times — Benson, Bleday and Busch all playing there tonight, solid stacking opportunity

- Moniak & Vientos both at Coors Field (138) — hard to fade either on HR props

Who are you targeting tonight?

Posting daily picks and graphics on X u/Bat2BallHQ if you want to follow along.