Targets 2.0-2.5x Gross Debt / EBITDA
To end 2026 at 2.7-2.8x
Raising buybacks from $4bn to $7bn+, w/:
~$1.5bn of $2bn dividend from Mobility spin
$2bn new debt to be issued in H2
Will buy back 5% of shares
2026 EPS growth guided 10-12%
PS. To be clear, $SPGI 10-12% 2026 EPS growth guided is relative to 2025 pro forma Adjusted EPS, Mobility contribution already excluded in both years
29-Jul: Agreement for "development of custom semiconductor products to Google"
"Comprehensive range of custom silicon programs that attach to the TPU ecosystem"
18-Aug: Warrants issued for 59.0m shares at $206.58 (17-Aug close: $234.33)
Moody's $MCO in ratings: 33.5x 2025 EPS
MSCI $MSCI in indices: 33.0x 2025 EPS
S&P $SPGI in ratings + indices: 27.2x 2025 PF EPS*
* $15.85 pro forma separation of Mobility business
FT: Mike Ashley "reputation for being discount retailer is outdated. Frasers $FRAS moving steadily upmarket"
Reality: Premium Lifestyle is <⅓ size of UK Sports in revenue (£974m vs. £2.57bn) & EBIT (£119m ex. impairments vs. £387m); its Revenue, EBIT, store no. all fell in FY26
https://www.ft.com/content/14787634-6345-4446-aab6-1a3f1f519ba5?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Mirror image of value of $GOOG Gmail data
"Amazon’s $AMZN New Order Confirmation Emails Seen Boosting Phishing Risk" (Bloomberg)
"Product names & images were replaced with labels such as “Household item” or “Essentials item” in order confirmation emails"
Q4 sales +5% organic, +7% $ (PY: -13%, -12%)
Americas +5%, EUKEM +1%, APAC +9%, China +7%
FY sales +3% organic, +5% $
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 11.2% (PY: 8.0%)
Non-GAAP EPS $2.51 (PY: $1.51)
FY27 outlook
Sales +3-5% organic
Non-GAAP EPS $3.10-3.35 (+24-34%)
"OpenAI told investors its revenue grew by 18% from the first to the second quarter ... to $6.7bn"
"Anthropic more than doubled its revenue to $11.6bn in the same period"
$MSFT $GOOG
"S&P consumer staples sub-index has gained just 14 per cent since early 2023, even as the S&P 500 itself has almost doubled in that time"
https://www.ft.com/content/59ed10fc-0e58-454c-9f93-d4d258ccfd9c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
GuardCap Global Equity +9.37% in Jul-26 ($)
Now -2.25% YTD vs. MSCI World +10.26%
YTD: EssilorLuxottica (-1.99%)
Nike $NKE (-1.24%): "Nike Direct and Greater China remained under pressure"
Adobe $ADBE (-1.17%): "generative AI, freemium monetisation and leadership succession"
GuardCap Global Equity return of +0.97% p.a. L5Y
2023 18.61% gain only offset most of 2022 18.61% loss (after 2021 "everything bubble")
2024 LSD gain, 2025 and 2026 YTD both losses
Reality: AVERAGE no. of staff fell by 1,922, but YEAR-END no. only fell by 1,660.
Nearly ½ of reduction in average no. (928 of 1,922) was in Africa, where DGE exited Nigeria, Ghana, Seychelles.
Headcount changes in Europe requires consultation and this has not been completed in most countries.
Ed Zitron: "OpenAI & Anthropic ... infrastructure was entirely paid for by Microsoft, Google or Amazon ... At least 30% of $AMZN & $MSFT's CapEx have been to support these loads (I leave out $GOOG as it's unclear whether it’s expanded its infrastructure for Anthropic)" (Aug-25)
Zitron's assertion seems obviously untrue with hindsight
* $195-205bn; $AMZN's is $220bn but only "majority" AI/AWS
2 timelines for AI CapEx, $AMZN 26Q2 call
Full extract of what CEO Andrew Jassy said on the call:
>"There are 2 major parts of the investment, the data centers and the servers and networking equipment that go into them. These have different capital cycles.
>Data center capital is spent starting 2 years before we can put servers into them to start monetizing. Once a data center opens with servers plugged in, we start generating significant revenue right away and then get to monetize these data centers for 30-plus years without having to spend that start-up capital again.
>Servers and networking equipment operate on a shorter cycle. We typically purchase these a few months before putting them into service, so we have strong visibility into customer demand before we trigger the spend. If the demand isn't there, we won't spend the capital. For servers and networking equipment, on average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment.
>The servers currently have a useful life of at least 5 to 6 years, and most of our AI capacity these days is being contracted for at least 5-year terms. That means that we're driving significant free cash flow on the servers and networking equipment in the 2 to 3 years after we break even."
They "began emergency talks to sell at least part of its $5bn Anthropic stake. But ... Anthropic had the right to approve of any transfer ... so the fund could only pitch those with existing stakes"
WSJ: Bank of America $BAC CEO "Brian Moynihan regularly jams words such as “gainsay,” “concomitant” and “fantods” into otherwise ordinary sentences when he addresses the street. It’s part of a secret game the 66-year-old plays on calls with analysts"
"10 of the largest global private capital firms ... have made no new publicly disclosed equity investments in China in the first seven months of 2026"
https://www.ft.com/content/55cb2786-c7ef-438e-8830-c3dc2c1452ce?syn-25a6b1a6=1
"$636mn in loans to ultra-luxury hotels in Italy"
"Biggest ... is a $392mn stake in a loan to the landmark hotel Danieli in Venice"
TCI "up 3.5% for the year as of June 30"
https://www.ft.com/content/351cf8e1-cdef-46a9-ac32-b2e76c72ed1a?syn-25a6b1a6=1
"Anthropic has gained traction with AI tools that streamline complex tasks, including coding"
"OpenAI’s revenue run rate recently exceeded $40 billion"
$GOOG $MSFT
LOL
"As part of the case, 3M hired a man named Josh Autenrieth of Knighthawk Engineering to prepare an “expert report” about the explosion. During discovery in the case, Will Moye, one of the plaintiffs’ attorneys, found a five-page document called “Citation Overlay,” which appeared to have been generated by AI. Moye recognized the Citation Overlay document as being from ChatGPT, and demanded all of the prompts Autenrieth used from 3M’s lawyers. The deposition was paused for three hours while they were gathered, and Moye was given 350 pages of ChatGPT conversations that Autenrieth had when creating the report. Those documents included ChatGPT’s public links to Autenrieth’s full conversations. Court transcripts suggest that 3M paid Knighthawk Engineering roughly $90,000 for its analysis, and a filing by 3M shows that Autenrieth’s rate was $475 per hour."
"As much as 15 billion Kenyan shillings ($115 million) ... to cover potential liabilities and third-party claims"
$DGE is counting on net proceeds of $2.3bn to help it deleverage by 0.25x (out of 0.35x in FY27)
